[England] Interest rate rise will not be derailed according to Bank of England governor 29-Aug-2015

Since Chinese stock market crashed this month, the global market have become bearish as risky asset sold sharply. This event brought the discussion if rate rise in US and UK is expected to be delayed. The market reacted as USD had been weaken against other currencies such as EUR or JPY until 24-Aug. GBP had been weaken in the same period as USD but it has not been recovered yet.

Today, Bank of England governor, Mark Carney said China’s financial woes will not derail plans to raise interest rates.

The Telegraph >> China's 'Black Monday' will not derail rate rises, says Mark Carney

Speaking at the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, Mark Carney acknowledged that the dramatic decline in Chinese stocks had sparked volatility in Western markets but claimed that it would not knock his economic plans off course.
“The direct exposure of the UK economy to China is relatively modest,” he told delegates. “Developments in China are unlikely to change the process of rate increases.”

This discussion was held after the Forex market closed on Friday, and it implies GBP will be stronger against other currencies at the market opening on Monday, though it is Bank holiday in England, by the way.

Trend & momentum for GBPJPY indicates it is expected upside in early next week. JPY has been stronger while the stock market was going down.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

Global stock market plummeted further on Monday 24-Aug-2015

On 23-Aug (Mon), global stock market has been plummeted in the world, whose scale is from 0.50% to 8.50%.

Daily value changes:

[Asia & Pacific]

(Australia) S&P/ASX 200 >> -4.09%
(China) SSE Composite Index >> -8.49%

(Hong Kong) Hang Seng Index >> -5.17%
(India) S&P BSE SENSEX >> -5.94%

(Japan) Nikkei 225 index >> -4.61%

(Singapore) STI Index >> -4.30%

[Europe / Middle East]

(France) CAC 40 >> -5.35%

(Germany) DAX >> -4.70%

(Italy) FTSE MIB >> -5.96%

(Norway) OSLOStock Exchange All Index >> -5.34%

(Russia) RTSI Index >> -4.94%

(Spain) IBEX 35 >> -5.01%

(Sweden) OMX Stockholm 30 >> -4.50%
(UAE) Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index >> -0.51%

(UK) FTSE 100 >> -4.67%

[Africa]

(South Africa) FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index >> -2.85%

(Nigeria) Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index >> -2.22%

[North/South America]

(Brazil) IBOVESPA >> -3.03%

(Canada) S&P/TSX Composite index >> -3.12%

(US) Dow Jones Industrial Average >> -3.57%

Asian and European market have been down relatively in larger scale than other economic zones. Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index got remarkably small impact, and African and American markets are affected in smaller scale.

In addition to major stock market, oil price has declined further. But remarkable one is USDRUB staying near the peak of early this year. Currently, USDRUB is around 70.52.

[USDRUB as of 24-Aug-2015. Source by Trading View]

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Chinese stock market is under necessary adjustment, according to IMF 23-Aug-2015

It has been mentioned in the last post, whether too soon to call the situation as Crisis. Yesterday, IMF said economic slowdown and stock market falling are necessary adjustment.

Reuters >> IMF official says 'premature' to speak of Chinese crisis

China's economic slowdown and a sharp fall in its stock market herald not a crisis but a "necessary" adjustment for the world's second biggest economy, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Saturday.

Fresh evidence of easing growth in China hammered global stock markets on Friday, driving Wall Street to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years.

"Monetary policies have been very expansive in recent years and an adjustment is necessary," said Carlo Cottarelli, an IMF executive director representing countries such as Italy and Greece on its board.

"It's totally premature to speak of a crisis in China," he told a press conference.

Even though the stock market has fallen sharply, the stock index, such as SSE Composite Index, is above the level at beginning of 2015. Numeric figure also implies it is premature to say "Crisis".


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Too soon to call it "Crisis"? 22-Aug-2015

SSE Composite Index in CNY and USD

Stock price has steeply gone down in major economic zones in the world, lead by Chinese market, followed by such US, UK, Western Europe, Asia and Pacific.

Without particular events, such as Sub-prime loan crisis or Lehman crisis, the crisis is defined after the stock market crashed into bottom. Although the stock market has plunged sharply, in SSE Composite Index, the current level is still almost same or slightly above the level at the beginning of this year.

This is both in CNY and USD.

S&P/ASX 200 in AUD and USD

It means, even though CNY itself has been devalued this month, the stock index is still higher than the value at beginning of the year.

However, looking at Australian stock index S&P/ASX200, the level is already record low within last 4 - 5 years in USD, while it is still above the level at beginning of 2015 in AUD. This is because of weakness in AUD in last 3 years.

The stock market is highly correlated as realized last October or movement in this month.

CITY A.M. >> Chaos on European markets as FTSE 100 tumbles, while S&P 500 crashes below 2,000 points

There still seems be room where Chinese stock market is going down, the correlation could bring more chaos into other economic zones than China itself.

See Stock indexes for other economic zones.

Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

EURJPY Trend & momentum 11-Aug-2015

Expectation of Greek deal bring positive sentiment into the market, and EUR has been steady for last days. In Asia and Pacific market, since CNY (CNH as offshore) was devalued as poor economic figure, AUD also became weaker, which implies Australian dependence on Chinese economy.

Reuters >> China devalues yuan after poor economic data

The trend and momentum indicates EURJPY is expected downward trend in a coming week while EURJPY have been steeply going up by now.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

[Android App] Trend & Momentum universal time chart released as Beta version 9-Aug-2015

Since we realized some of users were unable to see the universal time chart on App, new universal time chart has been live today.

Although it is still beta version, most of users should be able to see the chart now. We continue to improve it for our mission help people to thrive with Forex trading.

[New Universal Time Chart in Beta version]

AUDCAD Trend & momentum 7-Aug-2015

AUDCAD has been upward trend since last interest rate decison by RBA. On the other side, CAD had been weaker againt other currencies after the unexpected rate cut with concerned statistical figure last month.

In the mean time, the trend and momentum indicates AUDCAD will be downward trend in a coming week, implying bounce back from the upward trend.

[GBP] Monetary Policy Committee Announcement and Minutes by Bank of England 6-Aug-2015

>> Earlier tweet by QROSS X

Today's noon in UK time, Bank of England will have Monetary Policy Committee Announcement and Minutes.

Although the interest rate is expected at 0.50% unchanged, expectation of future interest rate is another key factor at the minutes as votes for rate rising can be more than last committee.

By the way, the trend and momentum in GBPAUD indicates it continues upward trend in a coming week.


To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

GBPAUD Trend & momentum, RBA announcement 4-Aug-2015

GBPAUD has massively gone down while AUD became bullish against other currencies, as RBA announced holding the interest rate at 2.0% as well as removal of the sentence demanding cheaper AUD.

The Australian >> Reserve Bank holds official cash rate steady at 2 per cent

It implies AUD will be stronger in longer term as the policy changed.
By the way, the trend & momentum in GBPAUD indicates further downward trend in coming days.