[Android App] Newsensus is back 1-Feb-2021

 It has been a long while since Newsensus App was unpublished from Google Play. The latest version is being available on Google Play, coming with some security updates. 

Why Newsensus?

Newsensus is a free app available on Google Play. The features which differentiates from others are that 1) news sources are geologically diversified, 2) the radar charts indicate the trends of each topic and 3) the app allows you to switch the story from one economic zone to another.

For the sake of News, it is inevitable for ones to see a story as fairly sophisticated while for someone else to see the story as biased or even a fake. Checking biases is much harder than checking facts because the facts are more objective than the biases which are rather subjective. Our answer to this is to quantify such biases by referring different stories from the world. If the biases are inevitable, you'd better to know them at least before reading the stories.

Here is the short slides briefly showing how Newsensus works.

Check out Newsensus on Google Play.

Why the internal market bill is controversial in Brexit-deal?

The last September, UK politics reopened arguments about the Brexit-deal by introducing an internal market bill which could potentially breach the international law. It was a bit sensational as former PMs, including David Cameron and Theresa May joined to condemn the bill.

BBC news: Fifth ex-PM speaks out against post-Brexit bill

David Cameron has become the fifth former prime minister to criticise a new bill attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

No 10 says the Internal Market Bill was a "critical piece of legislation for the UK".

But Mr Cameron said he had "misgivings" over it and breaking an international treaty should be the "final resort".

Former Tory PMs Theresa May and Sir John Major, and Labour's Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have condemned the plan. 

Since then, most of the critics focused on the government's attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal deal and a possibility of breaching the international law. But it seems little is said about how the controversial bill could fail to abide the law.

It is a little patchy information below but it is basically about the Northern Ireland Protocol preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic.

BBC news: Brexit: Ministers plan laws overriding part of withdrawal deal

Meanwhile, the government will publish its Internal Market Bill - designed to protect trade arrangements between the four parts of the UK - on Wednesday.

This could contradict the Northern Ireland Protocol, set up to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, which many fear could be detrimental to peace.

The protocol says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules - meaning customs declarations for goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain, as well as some new checks on goods going from Great Britain into Northern Ireland - after the transition period.

The Financial Times said the bill would "eliminate" the legal force of the Withdrawal Agreement, struck less than a year ago between the UK and EU, in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

On the other hand, what the new bill rules:

BBC news: What is the row over UK 'internal markets' all about?

Right now, the UK is part of the European single market, with jointly agreed regulations and standards right across the continent.

Post-Brexit, the UK government wants to continue to have a joint market across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - the "internal market".

But instead of the rules and regulations around things like food and air quality and animal welfare being set in Brussels, now they have to be set closer to home - and there is a row over who should have the final say.

Many powers are set to be directly controlled by the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish administrations, in fields including food labelling, energy efficiency and support for farmers.

However, the UK government has said the devolved administrations will still have to accept goods and services from all other parts of the UK - even if they have set different standards locally. 

The latter implies that Northern Ireland will have to accept some goods and services from the other administrations of UK regardless of the different quality standards on goods and services. The former says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules so as to prevent the hard border between them and Irish Republic. Those lead to a conclusion that the argument arises because Northern Ireland will have to accept the goods and services from the other parts of UK, which do not complying with EU custom rules to be applied. Having sorted out so far, this is a substance of the argument about the internal market bill.

Fed emergency rate cut. Coronavirus or Shadow of Mr.Sanders? 3-Mar-2020

Fed overwhelmingly announced 50bps rate cut today soon after the US stock market opened.
DJIA once jumped, reacting to the rate cut, though it stays nearly flat since the market opened. It seems be about the response to the market turmoil due to the Coronavirus crisis. But this sudden announcement is a little weird as such rate cut without anticipation tends to surprise the market, which should be avoided.

While today's news are dominated with Coronavirus, this is the Super Tuesday in US. The latest polls suggest that Mr.Sanders has the best chance to win, who is known of Social Democratic ideology. It can be a weigh on the stock prices shortly even though the likelihood is already priced in.

We'll know it.

Comment on 4-Mar-2020 Morning:

Regarding the current outcome of Super Tuesday, Mr.Biden earning votes remarkably, leaving Mr.Sanders behind. Meanwhile, DJIA future is also gaining, which implies today's opening values will be higher.

How hard to reach the trade agreement between UK and EU?

At the end of last January, UK finally relinquished the EU membership in term. British MEPs, including Mr.Farage seen one of the most prominent Brexiter, have left Brussels.

Although it just started the transition period and people's activities are not practically changed until the period, it is likely the end of "Endless" talks between UK and EU about Brexit. Now, British government whose cabinet ministers were shuffled last week has to negotiate the trade deal with European Commission. The end of the transition period is set on the end of 2020 unless it is agreed to extend the period between UK and EU while Mr.Johnson does not want to do.

Even if UK (and EU) expect to reach the agreement, how it is realistic to reach a decent deal in a year?  Due to the tight deadline, both sides tend to prioritize the negotiation issue on top. But the free trade agreements between EU and other large economies took much more time to be finalized, which also requires ratification. Here are some examples.

[EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement]
 The negotiation had started since 2013,
 Reached at the agreement on July-2018,
 Ratified on December-2018,
 Has been effective since 1-February-2019.

About 6 years to the enforcement.

[EU-Singapore FTA]
 The negotiation had started since 2010,
 Reached at the agreement on October-2018,
 EU member states endorsed on November-2019,
 Has been effective since 21-November-2019.

About 9 years to the enforcement.

[CETA, EU-Canada Economic and Trade Agreement]
 The negotiation had started since ?,
 The negotiation ended on August-2014,
 The agreement was signed on October-2016,
 Has been effective since 21-September-2017.

More than 3 years + the negotiation period, to the enforcement.

Abolishing the relationship when UK was a member state of EU and building the trade agreement from scratch, one year sounds too short to enforce the agreed deal. It implies No-deal Brexit is inevitable rather than it as the worst option. In case of No-deal Brexit, WTO rules will be basically applied to the trades between EU and UK, which is likely to happen.
The market seemed not pricing in No-deal Brexit, but as soon as UK legally rejects any extensions of the trade talk, the market will pessimistically react.

[Updated on 16-Oct-2020]

UK PM mentioned Britons should get ready for no-deal Brexit today as it is still unclear to reach an agreement so-called Canada-style deal. He would seek an alternative like Australia-style deal.

The Guardian: Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit

“A lot of progress has been made on such issues as social security and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and son on,” he said, but “for whatever reason, it’s clear from the [EU] summit that after 45 years of [UK] membership they are not willing, unless there’s some fundamental change of approach, to offer this country the same terms as Canada”.

He said that given there were only 10 weeks left until the transition period ended, he had to make a judgment about the likely outcome and to prepare the country.

“I concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s – based on simple principles of global free trade,” he told reporters in a pooled broadcast statement.

EU and Australia started their trade negotiation in May 2018, and it seems the agreement has not been made by now since the negotiation is kicked off. It looks unrealistic for UK to reach a full agreement with EU by the end of 2020.

Ref.
EU-Japan trade agreement on track to enter into force in February 2019
The EU-Singapore agreements explained
Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
CETA – The European-Canadian Economic and Trade Agreement
Australia - Trade - European Commission

BBC news: Brexit: What is the transition period?

Famous veterans stepped down quietly after louder Brexit election campaign

The UK election this month was mostly about Brexit while NHS is also one of the biggest interest of the people. The outcome, Tory's decisive majority, implies that the serial decisions will be made far quicker than before the election.

Looking at the parliament from a side way, some famous members have left the House of Commons as a result of the election or own wills. Even before the election, John Bercow had resigned as a Speaker, and Lindsay Hoyle, the former deputy speaker, was designated as a new Speaker.
sky news: Sir Lindsay Hoyle wins race to replace John Bercow as Speaker in House of Commons

Kenneth Clarke, the Father of the House until Nov 2019, retired after 50 years in politics. Like other former veteran MPs, we could expect to hear his voice through the media or public speeches perhaps.

The Guardian: Boris Johnson should 'stop campaigning and start governing', says Ken Clarke

Dennis Skinner, a veteran Labour politician since 1970, also known as Beast of Bolsover, has been defeated by the Tory candidate. Dennis Skinner has served as MP for almost a half century and is older than Kenneth Clarke who stepped down as mentioned. 

BBC News: General election 2019: How Dennis Skinner lost his Bolsover seat

Philip Hammond, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, stepped down as a MP at the election. He has strongly opposed to "No-deal" Brexit. It implies that he was presumably uncomfortable with the recent Tory leadership that does not rule out crashing out of EU without the deal.

The Guardian: No-deal Brexit would be a betrayal, says Philip Hammond

Their resignations are because of their different reasons and wouldn't simply be attributed to a devision in the country. However, the veterans who have served for the last decades had some senses of unity, and they left the parliament. Hopefully, UK will be more united again in coming years.

Mr.Johnson won decisive majority, but the market doesn't look optimistic enough?

[EURGBP is approaching the level near Brexit referendum 2016]

The UK election yesterday resulted a big trophy for Tory and Mr.Johnson, and British pound scarcely reacted stronger before the exit polls released. While the FX market responded optimistically as concerns over the hung parliament faded away, it doesn't mean No-deal Brexit is ruled out from the plan.

On the Brexit day which is no later than 31-Jan-2020, UK actually doesn't get Brexit done, but they just start the trade talk with EU. The trade deal is expected to be agreed and ratified by Dec-2020, otherwise the consequence could be No-deal Brexit on Jan-2021 unless the extension is given.

Observing EURGBP market, GBP moved stronger yesterday but it is still weaker than the level before Brexit referendum 2016. It also implies that the market cannot be as optimistic as it was before the referendum. Perhaps, No-deal possibility is still priced in.

Ref. BBC News: Brexit: What happens now?

Brexit meaningful vote is soon 12-Mar-2019

After the Brexit negotiation between UK and EU yesterday, MPs are going to vote for Mrs.May's deal tonight.
In spite of the yesterday's agreement that the alternative arrangement for Irish backstop has to be made by December 2020, the agreement seems to be guaranteed from the legal perspective.
GBP once jumped at the yesterday's press conference, GBP dived today and GBPUSD now stays a little lower level before the press conference.

GBPUSD

If the deal is rejected tonight's vote, it is likely to vote if UK proceed with Hard Brexit or extend the Brexit date though the extension won't guarantee preventing from Hard Brexit. According to Mr.Juncker, the president of European Commission, there is no more room to negotiate. It implies the market could foresee Hard Brexit in case of rejection against Mrs.May's deal at tonight's vote.

It's worth to prepare for the possibility of Flash Clash tonight.

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Upcoming (Geo)political events (Brexit, Elections)

Brexit, US-NorthKorea summit, US-China trade war,... Several geopolitical uncertainties are surrounding the global economy. Here is just a list of upcoming events that could fluctuate the market in coming months. Some more events maybe added.

12-Mar-2019 The meaningful vote on Brexit deal (Downing Street insists)
 Guardian: Brexit meaningful vote will go ahead, says No 10, despite talks stalling
 >> Downing Street said the talks had been “difficult”, but stressed the vote would take place on Tuesday, as committed by May. If it is lost, MPs will vote on successive days on whether to block a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend the departure date.

29-Mar-2019 Brexit or the departure date extended?
>> After the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal, It will be clear whether Brexit happens on 29-Mar or is delayed.

9-Apr-2019 Israeli general election
>> The current PM Mr.Netanyahu is facing accusation of corruption, who have been PM since 2009. 

28-Apr-2019 Spanish general election
>> The right wing populist party Vox is rising while People's Party (PP) which is the current majority is likely to struggle. The centrist party Ciudadanos have not seemed to appeal enough to get majority at the parliament.

23 and 26-May-2019 European Parliament election
 The Economist: Volt wants to become the first pan-EU political party
 >> Volt, now has thousands of members across 30 countries (the eu28 plus Albania and Switzerland), and will run in the European Parliament elections next year. On October 27th about 450 delegates met in Amsterdam to approve the party’s programme, in a sea of youthful optimism and multilingual policy wonkery.

Banking job cuts announced in a last few years

After the financial crisis in 2008, many of large banks had introduced job cuts though some might have hired back as the market recovered. Investment banking division supposed to be in a main focus of the layoffs that time.

In a last few years, 2016 - 2017 particularly, job cuts have been introduced from retail sector to investment banking. Some European banks plan to cut thousands jobs, including German, Italian and Dutch banks. Japanese banks, which are usually unwilling to cut jobs, plan to cut multi thousands of jobs in next 10 years, and AI is likely to play a part of roles used to be operated by bank staffs. CEO at UBS also hinted 30,000 workers could be shed in the years ahead due to the technological advances.
Some of you who has been looking for banking jobs in recent years could feel how banking job offers have disappeared from the job boards.

Actually, some bankers tell that many staffs in Front Office to Back Office play on the middle of business flows, scrolling, typing and clicking on business softwares. It sounds that these jobs could be replaced by more advanced softwares which directly connect from business front to the end. One software could shed dozen of jobs in each department. Complex risk calculation is just a pile of mathematical formulae, but it would not be difficult to write in source codes.

Here are some stories about the banking job cuts, published since 2016.

Nordea Bank’s 6,000 Job Cuts Are Just the Beginning, Union Says
Nordea has just said it intends to get rid of 4,000 full-time employees and 2,000 consultants. Those announcements will be made internally and department by department at regular intervals over the coming years, the bank has said.

Commerzbank to cut 7,800 jobs in Germany: Handelsblatt
Commerzbank said last September it planned to cut 9,600 jobs, more than a fifth of its workforce, but trade union Verdi has said the total would actually end up being lower due to already agreed cuts and the usual process of staff attrition.

Deutsche Bank's CEO Hints at Thousands of Job Cuts
Cryan has warned repeatedly that technology will allow big savings across his sprawling empire, and recent media reports suggest he’s under increasing pressure from shareholders to deliver, having also suspended the bank’s regular dividend. Only 4,000 of the 9,000 job cuts promised under a five-year restructuring plan–announced in late 2015–have so far taken place.

ABN Amro Slashes 60% of Senior Management After Staff Cuts
ABN Amro, which is 70 percent owned by the Dutch government following a state rescue, said in November it would cut 1,500 jobs as it steps up cost reductions. The bank, which employed 26,500 people last year, said its total workforce is expected to decline by 13 percent by 2020. The Dutch government has said it plans to gradually exit its holding in the bank.

ING announces 7,000 job cuts as unions condemn 'horror show'
ING’s plans to shed 7,000 jobs and invest in its digital platforms to make annual savings of €900m by 2021 has drawn swift criticism of the Netherlands’ largest financial services company from unions.
The layoffs represent slightly less than 12% of ING’s 52,000 workforce, because nearly 1,000 are expected to come at suppliers rather than at the bank itself.

Barclays axes 13,600 jobs in 9 months
Staley said at a conference in March that more than 6,000 positions had gone in his first 100 days in charge, marking a sharp acceleration in job reductions in the past four years, and his latest estimate shows the pace of cuts has continued.
Staley, who started in December, cut 1,200 jobs in the investment bank in January as he pulled back from Russia, Brazil and seven countries in Asia.

BNP Paribas to cut 5 percent of investment banking jobs in UK - source
BNP plans to axe 233 British jobs but will also be hiring 60 employees there -- bringing the net headcount down to 3,105 in 2016 from 3,278 in 2015, the source said without giving details on where the job cuts would come from.
A similar net number, 179 in all, will be hired in lower-cost Poland, increasing its staff there by about half to 507 employees.

SocGen to Deepen French Job Cuts, Takes $678 Million Charge
As many as 900 reductions may take place as the domestic retail banking business cuts branch numbers, resulting in a charge of about 400 million euros, SocGen said in a statement. That’s on the top of the 2,550 positions the bank has already said it will eliminate. SocGen will book another exceptional expense related to three tax changes.

Banco Santander to reduce number of job cuts in Popular integration, union says
Banco Santander has reached an agreement with unions to reduce the number of staff affected by planned job cuts relating to the integration of Banco Popular by around 900, a union said on Tuesday.
Santander was originally planning more than 2,000 job cuts, of which 575 the bank was looking to accommodate within its other businesses, the Comisiones Obreras union said in early November.

More IT job cuts at HSBC
After laying off 120 IT staff in March, HSBC reportedly hit the same department with another round of job cuts yesterday. According to Apple Daily the bank has made a number of IT employees redundant.
The Hong Kong Banking Employees Association confirmed yesterday’s IT job cuts which affected around 10 employees. Although the scale of the cut is relatively small, the association condemned it and added it believes there will be more job cuts to come at the bank in the future.

No end in sight for Deutsche Boerse hiring freeze
The Frankfurt stock exchange suspended hiring at the end of February after revenues for the first two months of the year proved weak, but a person close to the process said there was still "no date for an end yet".

Credit Suisse to cut further 1,500 jobs in cost-cutting drive, sources say
Credit Suisse is to axe 1,500 jobs in London by the end of the year as the Swiss bank continues its ruthless cost-cutting drive, it is understood.
Some 2,500 London staff cuts took place last year as part of a major restructuring introduced by chief executive Tidjane Thiam in a bid to shave costs to less than 17 billion Swiss francs (£13.6 billion).
This brought the number of Credit Suisse employees in the City from over 9,000 in November 2015 to 6,500 by the end of last year.

National Australia Bank to Cut 4,000 Jobs in Automation Push
National Australia Bank Ltd. announced plans to eliminate 4,000 jobs, or about 12 percent of its workforce, joining the ranks of global lenders cutting costs and shedding staff in the face of advancing technology. 
“As we simplify, we automate processes and things move to digital channels, we will need less people,” National Australia Chief Executive Officer Andrew Thorburn told reporters in Sydney on Thursday. “The reshaping of the workforce is going to be significant.”

RBS to axe 680 jobs as it closes 259 branches
The bailed-out lender said 62 Royal Bank of Scotland and 197 NatWest branches would shut as customers increasingly turned to online banking.
The Unite union said 1,000 roles faced the axe, although the bank – which is 71% owned by the taxpayer – said the move would result in 680 redundancies after redeployment.

Royal Bank of Canada to Cut About 450 Jobs in Toronto Area
Canadian banks have announced more than 5,000 job cuts tied to restructurings during the past three years, though the number is probably higher since many announcements, including those by Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, didn’t disclose job figures. The country’s six largest lenders collectively employed about 363,600 workers as of the end of April, including 75,281 at Royal Bank, according to company disclosures.

Two decades after Japan’s financial crisis
In recent months, the megabank groups have announced plans to cut thousands of jobs and close outlets over the next several years. Mizuho Financial Group says it plans to reduce its employees including part-time staff, who numbered 79,000 at the end of last March, by roughly 19,000 by the end of fiscal 2026, and cut the number of the group banks’ outlets nationwide by about 100 to some 400 by the end of March 2025. Similarly, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group will cut its 40,000-plus workforce by 6,000 by the end of the 2023 business year. Combined with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which earlier said its would slash the workload equivalent of 4,000 jobs by the end of fiscal 2019, the total number of jobs cut could add up to some 30,000 among the major banking groups.

Technology could help UBS cut workforce by 30 percent: CEO in magazine
Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S) could shed almost 30,000 workers in the years ahead due to technological advances in the banking industry, Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said in a magazine interview.

[Short term] EUR being adjusted into downward further?

Since the tension escalated between US and North Korea, President Donald Trump warning "fire and fury", the financial market has been shaken and it driven investors into risk off.

Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen lifted in large scale, where EURJPY is around 128.56 which is near the lowest level in a month.

While EURJPY was down to a month low, EUR had hiked for some months against other major currencies.
Our Trend and Momentum indicates there are still rooms where EUR is adjusted into downward for such EURCAD, EURGBP and EURNZD.

You can check more Trend and Momentum indicators on our free mobile app available on Google Play.

European elections 2017

There are more political uncertainties in Europe this year, as you would be already aware of. Here are probably not all of them, but some remarkable events listed below:

15-March: Dutch general election
Netherlands picks up members of House of Representatives. Main focus would be how many seats are being held by Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV). Recent reports still say PVV is leading the poll, which currently have 12 seats out of 150 and is expected to obtain around 30 seats.
>> General election: Latest poll of polls shows slight drop in PVV support
>> Dutch polls

23-April and 7-May: French presidential election
Two rounds are held to for the election. Currently, the poll by Elabe for Les Echo predict that Emmanuel Macron wins by beating Marine Le Pen on the second round. Francois Fillon is facing Fake job scandal. Although the investigation is underway, it inevitably damage his supports for a while.
Global interests would be whether Ms.Le Pen beats another on the second round, who is leading National Front party known as a far right wing and EU sceptic party.
But now, the president is still Francois Hollande.
>> François Fillon faces 'elimination' from French presidential race as 'fake jobs' scandal intensifies

11-Sep: Norwegian parliamentary election
Since no radical party rise up in Norway which is not a member of EU, majority of global media have not followed the election. As seen in the poll, it indicates Labour Party (AP) which currently holds the largest number of seats would get advanced further. But the poll outcomes with no particular surprise.
>> NORWAY, January 2017. Sentio poll
>> New political alliances forming

24-Sep: German federal election
Some know Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) have got spot lights in 2016, as a consequence of the refugee crisis. However, the recent poll shows Ms.Merkel's CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) coalition is still leading, followed by Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Although there are 7 months to go, German political order is unlikely to change too drastically.
>> Merkel’s Challenger Leads Social Democrats to German Poll Boost
>> POLLYTIX GERMAN ELECTION POLLING TREND

Some day in 2017?: Italian parliamentary election
The next parliamentary election is planed in 2018. But, after the referendum on December, Matteo Renzi resigned PM position, and both Democratic party and 5-Star movement are calling for the earlier election. 5-Star movement possibly takes majority of seats for the next election, which is known as anti-establishment and Eurosceptic.
>> Italy court verdict could pave way for early elections


There were many political events which probably shake the financial markets in 2017. But I would more concern that European economy will visibly stagnate this year. Maybe, it is better to publish on another post.

Italy's referendum 4-Dec-2016

Today's Italian referendum is to decide if power of the senate house is being limited whereas they currently have equal power to the lower house.
In current system, it topically takes longer time to make a decision and enforce a new rule because the both houses have to agree with the new rule. The proposed system helps the government to reform Italian troubled banking industry for short term, while political risk remains for longer perspective, centralizing political power into fewer parties.
Choosing from Yes/No question in the referendum, Italy will face difficult situation whichever the result comes out. Simply, what is likely to happen?

(Yes to change)
Reform of the banking industry will be carried out, and market concerns are mitigated for short term.and EUR is likely stronger. The risk at political centralization would be negative but it is for a long term.

(No to change)
It is expected to take longer time to reform of the banking industry where they are suffering from bad performing loans. The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, would leave while the populist party Five Star Movement is earning more supports. It could lead to another uncertainty about populism movement in Europe, following such UK, France, Spain and Netherlands.
If the concerns at Italian banks and European politics intense, EUR will be bearish after the referendum.

Austrian presidential vote result will support positiveness in EUR at the market opening.

EURUSD trend & momentum, ECB meeting 3-Dec-2015

EURUSD, the trend and momentum has indicated downward trend. Today, 14:30 ECB have a conference where bankers expect further quantitative easing or monetary policy.EUR is still expected easy money while US will start the rate rising expected by the end of 2015.

Bank of England will reveal Financial Stability Report+ on 1-Dec Tuesday 29-Nov-2015

Bank of England will release Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, which include stress tests for high-street banks such as HSBC, RBS or Barclays. Those high-street banks are expected to pass the stress tests without failing, according to the analysts.

the guardian >> Forget Black Friday. Forget Super Thursday. It’s Mark Carney’s Super Tuesday!
Super Tuesday, as some City analysts have decided to call it, brings together the Bank of England’s annual MOT of banks’ financial strength with its twice-yearly assessment of risks to the financial system. It’s not to be confused with Super Thursday – the Bank’s quarterly bombardment of economists with information on inflation and interest rates.

Central banking used to be rather a dull business, but the dry data releases and policy pronouncements are now treated almost like the announcement of Adele’s next tour. Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, is supposedly either a rock star or a George Clooney lookalike, depending on who you talk to.

The so-called stress tests cover the high street banks – HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds – plus Santander UK, Standard Chartered and Nationwide building society.

Analysts don’t think any of the lenders will fail the main test. The real action could be a clampdown on consumer lending after the Bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, said the Bank was keeping an eye on rising household debt. Maybe Tuesday won’t be all that super for the banks.

Mentioned in the guardian's articles, household debt has to be kept on eye because mortgage loan is vulnerable to the interest rate rising. Once concerns raised about if rate rising will suffer household debt, Bank of England probably hesitate to increase the interest rate. Similar story was seen in Australian mortgage a year ago.
Anyway, if expectation for upside of the interest rate wiped off, GBP could decline for a while.

GBPNZD Trend & momentum 28-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.298 yesterday, near the lowest level for the last 2 weeks.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPNZD is on upward trend for a coming week, reversed from the downward trend for a last few weeks.
No significant events are expected on the beginning of next week, though it is just after the black Friday. More important for Forex market, ECB will have next meeting on 3-Dec at Frenkfurt. The point is if additional quantitative easing is released or any other policy changes is introduced at the meeting. EUR is the most sensible currency to the event, but Britain, whose currency is GBP, is a one of the major business leaders in EU now, and GBP can be affected by the event relatively than NZD.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

[England] Interest rate rise will not be derailed according to Bank of England governor 29-Aug-2015

Since Chinese stock market crashed this month, the global market have become bearish as risky asset sold sharply. This event brought the discussion if rate rise in US and UK is expected to be delayed. The market reacted as USD had been weaken against other currencies such as EUR or JPY until 24-Aug. GBP had been weaken in the same period as USD but it has not been recovered yet.

Today, Bank of England governor, Mark Carney said China’s financial woes will not derail plans to raise interest rates.

The Telegraph >> China's 'Black Monday' will not derail rate rises, says Mark Carney

Speaking at the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, Mark Carney acknowledged that the dramatic decline in Chinese stocks had sparked volatility in Western markets but claimed that it would not knock his economic plans off course.
“The direct exposure of the UK economy to China is relatively modest,” he told delegates. “Developments in China are unlikely to change the process of rate increases.”

This discussion was held after the Forex market closed on Friday, and it implies GBP will be stronger against other currencies at the market opening on Monday, though it is Bank holiday in England, by the way.

Trend & momentum for GBPJPY indicates it is expected upside in early next week. JPY has been stronger while the stock market was going down.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

Chinese stock market is under necessary adjustment, according to IMF 23-Aug-2015

It has been mentioned in the last post, whether too soon to call the situation as Crisis. Yesterday, IMF said economic slowdown and stock market falling are necessary adjustment.

Reuters >> IMF official says 'premature' to speak of Chinese crisis

China's economic slowdown and a sharp fall in its stock market herald not a crisis but a "necessary" adjustment for the world's second biggest economy, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Saturday.

Fresh evidence of easing growth in China hammered global stock markets on Friday, driving Wall Street to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years.

"Monetary policies have been very expansive in recent years and an adjustment is necessary," said Carlo Cottarelli, an IMF executive director representing countries such as Italy and Greece on its board.

"It's totally premature to speak of a crisis in China," he told a press conference.

Even though the stock market has fallen sharply, the stock index, such as SSE Composite Index, is above the level at beginning of 2015. Numeric figure also implies it is premature to say "Crisis".


Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

Greek referendum, impact at EUR 4-Jul-2015

Back to 1 year ago, Jul-2014, EURGBP was 0.790 - 0.800. It is now 0.713 significantly down more than 10%. It is mainly because of intermittent quantitative easing by ECB and Greek election on Jan-2015 which resulted SYRIZA's win.

Greek referendum, Yes or No?
Greek people are voting for whether they accept the proposal from the creditors, European Commission, ECB and IMF.
The poll indicates "Yes" is slightly supported than "No". We won't have no idea of the result most likely. Leading party, SYRIZA, has basically support "No", particularly Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis.

Ref.
Greek referendum poll shows 'Yes' 41.7 percent, 'No' 41.1 percent
TV poll puts 'Yes' vote marginally ahead before Greek referendum
Greece debt: Varoufakis accuses creditors of 'terrorism'


What about EUR?
Some sources say result of the referendum will not change the situation as bail out program has been terminated on the end of last month, but it still may affect to FX market against EUR.
"Yes" means Greece will accept the proposal from the creditors. If it is agreeable for both sides, Grexit and its default are unlikely to happen soon.
If the result is "No", the worst scenario is Greece being default before or after Grexit. No matter which Greece exit from Eurozone, the related debt is default, which was denominated in EUR. It implies credit of EUR currency will be deteriorated, and it leads to EUR become weaken against other currencies.

Ref.
What might happen if Greeks vote ‘yes’ — or ‘no’ — on Sunday
Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’


By the way, the trend & momentum on QROSSX.com indicates unclear signal whether EUR is go up or down...


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Mansion house speech by Chancellor and BOE governor 10-Jun-2015

Today, the chancellor George Osborne and Bank of England governor Mark Carney will have the annual speech at Bankers and Merchants dinner in London.

Back to the last speech, the governor mentioned the interest rate could go up in next months. But the rate has actually stayed at the record low 0.5% for the year.

Considering the deflation last month, though it may be temporary phenomenon, the interest rate is unlikely expected upside. If any clear direction is indicated in today's speech, forex market can be driven sharply whichever upside or downside.

Osborne’s Mansion House hot topics: rigging, ringfences and RBS

By the way, the trend & momentum of GBPUSD indicates it still has upside but it is limited as expected trend reversal toward later this week.