A.I. Range forecast for 30-Nov-2020 [Popular pairs against JPY]

A.I. Range forecasts of popular pairs against JPY until the end of Monday (UTC). For some whose last Trend and Momentum have been better fitted, their figures are also available below.

Japan is one of the biggest markets where FX trading is active among the private and corporate investors.

[AUDJPY]

Range forecast: 76.414 (-0.59%)  -  77.321 (+0.59%).

Confidence: 74.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURJPY]

Range forecast: 124.1 (-0.34%)  -  124.64 (+0.1%).
Confidence: 71.6%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[GBPJPY]

Range forecast: 138.12 (-0.31%)  -  138.6 (+0.04%).

Confidence: 73.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]

Range forecast: 103.59 (-0.49%)  -  104.26 (+0.15%).

Confidence: 69.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

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A.I. Range forecast for 26-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURNZD | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts of selected FXs for next 24h. The time-line is based on UTC as usual.

[AUDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 76.409 (-0.43%)  -  77.144 (+0.52%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 73.7%.

[EURGBP] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.88877 (-0.28%)  -  0.8943 (+0.34%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 69.7%.

[EURNZD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.6953 (-0.29%)  -  1.704 (+0.22%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 74%.

[EURUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.187 (-0.28%)  -  1.1951 (+0.4%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 73.2%.

[GBPUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.3329 (-0.18%)  -  1.3419 (+0.5%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 74.4%.

[USDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 104.12 (-0.13%)  -  104.48 (+0.21%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 72.8%.

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A.I. Range forecast for 23-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts of selected FXs for 24h from the next market opening. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 75.643 (-0.22%)  -  75.968 (+0.21%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 71.9%.
The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[EURGBP] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.88843 (-0.41%)  -  0.89316 (+0.12%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 65.5%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while Upside margin is limited.

[EURUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.1838 (-0.16%)  -  1.1885 (+0.24%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 66.3%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

[GBPUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.3148 (-1.06%)  -  1.3354 (+0.49%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 66%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while Upside margin is limited.

[USDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 102.96 (-0.83%)  -  104.49 (+0.64%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 68.5%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

A.I. Range forecast for 13-Nov-2020 [EURGBP | EURUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts for selected FXs until around the Monday afternoon. The time-line is based on UTC.

[EURGBP]

Range forecast: 0.89604 (-0.28%)  -  0.90099 (+0.27%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 63.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[EURUSD]

Range forecast: 1.1803 (-0.17%)  -  1.184 (+0.14%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 63.8%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]

Range forecast: 104.55 (-0.15%)  -  104.92 (+0.21%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 69.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

A.I. Range forecast for 2-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecast until the end of next Monday for some major FXs. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 73.032 (-0.62%)  -  73.664 (+0.24%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 74.1%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURGBP]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.89689 (-0.29%)  -  0.90848 (+1%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 78.1%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

[EURUSD]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.1625 (-0.18%)  -  1.1668 (+0.19%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 68.3%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 104.26 (-0.34%)  -  104.75 (+0.13%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 67.8%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while the expected margin will be limited.

It is possible that the Trend and Momentum indicate the different direction against the A.I.'s review.

As many are aware, the US presidential election is being held on 3-Nov in US time. Financial markets, including FX, are possibly impacted according to the outcome. It must be kept in mind.

Regarding Brexit, the internal market bill is being scrutinized and voted in the House of Lords on 9-Nov. Since the bill includes some controversial clauses, there is a certain possibility the Peers could block the bill. It is 2 months to go until the transition period is over.

Japanese Market sleeping for a coming Golden week, USDJPY vs N225

This year, Japanese people have the longest consecutive national holidays for 10 days, and it started today. Tokyo market will have been closed for next week and on Monday in another week after the next. While Japanese stock market is closed, Forex market is opened in the world and the price naturally moves in Japanese Golden week.

As many investors who look at Japanese market know, N225 and USDJPY are positively correlated though the correlation has been relatively lower than before. Still, compared with other markets, for example FTSE100 vs GBPUSD, CAC40 vs EURUSD or DAX vs EURUSD, the two indexes of N225 and USDJPY have always positive correlations for a reasonable time frame (e.g. 1 year).

The point of this Japan's holiday season is how N225 moves on the first business day after the Golden week, 7-May-2019. Let's have a look at the historical correlation between N225 vs USDJPY, whose correlation period is 250 points for each.

[USDJPY and N225 for last 5 years]

[250 days Correlation USDJPY vs N225]

The current correlation (250D) is at around 40%. Whatever this number is considered, it could anticipate N225 after the holidays follows the direction of USDJPY for next week. USDJPY's latest closing is at around 111.60. Japanese investors would hope the market not to be volatile drastically...

The one side correlation seems be particular in Japanese market, and it is not for some other markets. In European markets, the stock indexes and exchange rates are correlated actually, but the correlation moves in positive as well as negative territories.
Look at other examples in European markets, the below figures describe the correlation between FTSE100 vs GBPUSD.

[GBPUSD and FTSE100 for last 5 years]

[250 days Correlation GBPUSD vs FTSE100]

And the correlation between CAC40 vs EURUSD and DAX vs EURUSD. (Correlation figure only)

[250 days Correlation EURUSD vs CAC40 and DAX respectively]

Their latest correlations are positive, but the numbers are varied from time to time more than Japanese market. However, Europeans do not have such Golden week anyway...

USD downward trend in a coming week?

ECB's (dovish) decision shocked Forex market yesterday as their negative outlook to the European economy and geopolitical uncertainties over the world, such as Brexit, US-China trade war, ...

On the other hand, in short term horizon, USD have been relatively stronger for a last couple of week against major currencies JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, GBP and EUR of course. Our trend and momentum signals indicate this bullish USD could get bounce back. In the next week, more stories about Brexit anticipated, the market could turn more negative mood. If it is, JPY or CHF which are traditionally safe asset in bearish market can be relatively stronger in the negative market.

Here are some of snapshots from the trend and momentum charts. Those are as of the beginning of today (UTC).

[GBPUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[EURUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

EURUSD jumped after yesterday's ECB decision.




[NZDUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[USDCHF Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[USDJPY Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

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Economic Growth or FX Trick? 20-Nov-2014

When the stock market has gone up from 6,400 [GBP] to 6,700 [GBP] in UK market, many people recognize this fact as positive news.

Probably, it would be positive new or at least not negative. However, if GBPUSD has moved from 1.6136 to 1.5414 at the same time, the stock market price in USD is unchanged at 10,327 [USD].

USD is still a key currency in the global market, and it could make us to discover the gap between real economy and stock market trend.

First example is NIKKEI 225, Japanese stock index. Since early 2013, BOJ started large scaled QE in the financial market, aimed at economic growth.

Nikkei 225 index had gone up both in JPY and USD that time.
However, since another QE announcement at the end of last Oct, Nikkei 225 has largely gone up in JPY but not in USD. Correlation between Nikkei 225 in JPY and USD is lower at the moment comparing with 2013.

This implies that the market jump in 2013 has economic growth or expectation but the jump since last Oct is caused by FX effect in USDJPY. While Nikkei 225 is going up in JPY, USDJPY is going down to offset the value in USD.




Another example is S&P ASX 200 in Australian stock market. Most of the period since 2004, correlation between the index in AUD and USD is higher except for the period from 2013 to early 2014. RBA had cut Australian interest rate since 2012 to 2013, and AUDUSD had gone down.

Looking at the stock index, value in AUD had gone up in stable pace during 2012 to 2013 while value in USD had moved in more volatile pace. The correlation between value in AUD and USD has
been relatively smaller in the period.

Assuming USD is a key currency to measure the value, economic growth or expectation had been unstable during the period, and it is probably true considering uncertainty in Chinese market and European debt crisis.

Common point in both Japanese and Australian stock market is that the central bank provide liquidity into the financial market by monetary policy or quantitative easing in the particular period. In such period, actual value of the local currency can be changed and it makes stock market jump even if the value of stock unchange.

Cross-USD Trend & Momentum 9-Nov-2014

USD has been stronger against most of major currencies, EUR, GBP, AUD and particularly JPY due to BOJ announced additional QE since end of last month. Japanese stock market also has shot up.
Although fundamentals imply USD can be stronger in economic situation while Europe and Japan central bank keep QE, some market analysts and Trend & Momentum signal indicate USD will be less strong against other currencies.


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Cross-JPY and Stock index Nov-2014

Bank of Japan unexpectedly revealed additional QE on the end of last month, and JPY has been massively weaken against most of major currencies while Japanese stock index, Nikkei 225, has gone up.

This QE may have aspect of JPY devaluation. They plan to increase their exposure of ETF and J-REIT in three times scaled pace. Simply say, if they are buying less credit asset by their JPY, value of JPY will be degraded and cross currency against JPY will be relatively going up.

The stock index have gone up in JPY and reached around 1 year high, however the figure does not look so bullish in the stock index converted into USD.


Source)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EN225&a=00&b=4&c=1984&d=10&e=4&f=2014&g=w
http://uk.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-historical-data

USDJPY Trend & Momentum 16-Jul-2014 (Following)

 USDJPY has started going up since the beginning of this week. The trend and momentum indicator shows it still has room to hike but its upper bound is likely limited in short term.

Other FX, especially cross-GBP, is less predictable due to the jump yesterday's market, and USDJPY is out of the influence, looking at the yesterday's market.


FX Signal by QROSS X

USDJPY Trend & Momentum 14-Jul-2014

USDJPY has drifted up and down. It had been upward trend for 1 week since 2 weeks ago, and it turned into downward trend by the end of last week.

The trend & momentum indicator currently shows USDJPY is expected to be on steep upward trend in this week.

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