GBP against AUD, CAD and NZD in a few coming days. Follow the Brexit issues.

Once we have continuously picked up Trend and Momentum analysis from the list of FX. (You will find all of them on our website or Android app)
Those were just the examples which are expected to help users to understand how to see the Trend and Momentum indicators. Since our last update was long while ago, it seems be harder to find our articles in old days. It's probably reasonable to update some examples in the latest market now.

According to the update on the beginning of 22-Feb (UTC), the analysis result had indicated downward trend in GBPAUD, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. Those have downed by approx 0.40%, 0.60% and 0.55% respectively. While the momentary backlash would be likely, the Trend and Momentum still shows further room to downward.

[GBPAUD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.831.
Analyzed bottom by 1.80 (-1.69%).







[GBPCAD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.714.
Analyzed bottom by 1.70 (-0.82%).







[GBPNZD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.90.
Analyzed bottom by 1.88 (-1.05%).







It's just a reminder that GBP would be sensitive to Brexit issues including some speculations. A new Brexit deal is expected to be reached by 26-Feb next week. Otherwise, Theresa May would return to House of Common for further discussion with MPs.

[BBC] Brexit: What happens now?
If the EU were to agree to changes and MPs backed the adjusted deal, that would be a great result for Theresa May.

But senior EU politicians have said they will not reopen the legal text of the withdrawal agreement that they negotiated with the UK.

If MPs aren't satisfied with any adjusted deal put before them they could reject it again. Theresa May has also promised that even if she can't get the changes she's after, she would return to the House of Commons yet again on 27 February and allow MPs a further day of debate.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

British Pound remarkably low against major currencies 25-Feb-2016

Since the beginning of this month, GBP has sharply gone against major currencies such as USD, JPY, AUD or NZD though GBP peaked out in last Autumn of 2015.

Compared with the level at the end of 2015, GBPJPY got the sharpest decline more than 12.0% down, GBPUSD is following down at 6.0%, and even against AUD and NZD, GBP has gone down 5.0% and 3.6% respectively.

Due to the rate cut of AUD and NZD for a last few years, GBP and other currencies have been relatively stringer against AUD and NZD whose interest rates are more stable now than before.
However, even though their rates had been cut, the policy rate in

Australia is still 2.0% and it is 2.5% in New Zealand while the rate in England is only 0.50%. Also looking at the credit rating of sovereign debts of them, S&P rated AAA (stable) for Australia, AA (stable) for New Zealand and AAA (negative) for United Kingdom. Simply thinking, Australia has better credit rating and more interest rate, which of Australian or English debt do you want to invest?

We cannot miss out that global stock markets have been downward and volatile since the beginning of the year. The market shows

some symptoms of financial crisis, particularly strength of JPY and weakness of GBP. Remember Lehman crisis 2008, JPY had been the strongest currency in the market.
What happened in crisis probably happens now again, it is still a question from the view of investment because Japan has S&P rating only A+ (stable) and negative interest rate at -0.1%. Do you want to invest?

2015 was geopolitically unstable year, and 2016 will be economically and (geo)politically unstable due to the volatile market, US president election, Brexit, Spanish goverment, ...


Keep yourself to follow the global economy more efficiently, why not use Newsensus. Available on Google Play.

GBPNZD Trend & momentum 28-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.298 yesterday, near the lowest level for the last 2 weeks.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPNZD is on upward trend for a coming week, reversed from the downward trend for a last few weeks.
No significant events are expected on the beginning of next week, though it is just after the black Friday. More important for Forex market, ECB will have next meeting on 3-Dec at Frenkfurt. The point is if additional quantitative easing is released or any other policy changes is introduced at the meeting. EUR is the most sensible currency to the event, but Britain, whose currency is GBP, is a one of the major business leaders in EU now, and GBP can be affected by the event relatively than NZD.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPNZD, economic figures released next week in UK and NZ, Trend & momentum 14-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.329 yesterday, which is near the highest level at the beginning of this month.

From next Monday, economic figures will be released in both of UK and New Zealand. Particularly, GBPNZD is expected more volatile on Tuesday as NZ inflation expectations will be revealed by RBNZ and a lot of figures will be released in UK, including Consumer Price Index.

Generally, if the inflation figure is lower than expected, need for monetary easing, such as rate cut or quantitative easing, is increased. It leads to the local currency being cheaper. On the other hand, if the inflation is higher enough than expected, monetary policy is expected eventually tighten, which means the currency value is going to relatively higher.
Those fundamental factors drive Forex market sharply more than the natural trend.

Watching at the energy and commodity market, Crude oil price has approached to near the lowest level in last Aug since the beginning of Nov, Copper price has reached at the lowest level for last 6 years. In the sense of dropped market in this month, the inflation figures will be lower and it could be  lower than anticipated. There is time lag between the figures released, and the FX could jump from the eastern market opening to the earlier western market opened during next Tuesday.

Although the last inflation figure for NZ indicated slightly higher than anticipated, it is still unclear to see if the inflation is recovered.
ECONOTIMES >> New Zealand Consumer price inflation was slightly stronger than anticipated
see if the inflation is recovered.
Stuff.co.nz >> Ongoing low interest rates needed to meet inflation target

In UK, Bank of England is expected to keep their interest rate lower. It implies the economic recovery and inflation are not enough from their view.
BBC >> Bank of England dampens prospects of early UK rate rise

By the way, the trend and momentum for GBPNZD indicates it is sharply lower towards the middle of next week. It implies UK inflation could be more disappointed? Let's see:)

GBPNZD trend & momentum 30-Sep-2015

Recently, one of researching firms has pointed out that Babk of England will not cut the interest rate until 2016. In this sense, GBP is not stronger than that anticipated before.


GBP has been particularly weak against most of major currencies for the last 2 weeks. The trend and momentum now indicates the trend reversal for short term. Particularly, GBPNZD is expected upward steeply.

NZD interest rate cut further next week? 16-Jul-2015

Canadian dollar
 Yesterday, Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut 25bp at the interest rate which is now 0.50%. This is because of uncertainty in such energy sector or export of manufacturing goods, according to the source. CAD has been weaken against other currencies. GBPCAD was around 1.9995 before the rate changing and it is 2.022 now.

Financial Post >> David Rosenberg: Why the Bank of Canada cut now


New Zealand Dollar
 On the other side, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) plans the rate decision 23-Jul in next week. NZD has been weak against other major currencies such as GBP and USD since beginning of this year. The interest rate has been expected to be cut this year, as it was mentioned on this blog last Jan.
If the rate is cut next week, NZD will be likely weaker even though the market will have already expected the rate cut. Actually, the inflation rate is lower than RBNZ targeted, and it implies the interest rate is expected to be cut further. GBPNZD is at around 2.393 now, the highest level for almost 6 years.

Scoop >> Keep the interest rate cuts coming - 16 July
Today’s inflation release by Statistics New Zealand showed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.3% annually and 0.4% on last quarter; inflation continues to come in at well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target band of 1% to 3% over the medium term – more cuts are justified and helpful to counteract headwinds in our economy, says the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
NZMEA Chief Executive Dieter Adam says, “Inflation remains low and the June CPI would have been flat on last quarter if not for petrol prices. This is further reason for the RBNZ to keep cutting interest rates over this year, to spur growth and help the New Zealand dollar continue its downward trend, improving the competitiveness of our manufacturers and exporters. The continued fall of the currency will also help our dairy sector and the related manufacturers, who are facing hard times with the reduction in dairy prices.


Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

NZD expected under jumping risk toward RBNZ financial stability report

NZD has been relatively weaken against major currencies, particularly GBP or USD since beginning of 2015.
 RBNZ has been expected to cut interest rate since early this year. See a related post.
 NZD is weak towards RBNZ releasing financial stability report in today's evening GMT. It implies the market consensus still expect downside at interest rate. Even US and UK are still hesitating to rise interest rate, and RBNZ is unlikely to change their stance to the policy.

 Ref (picked up on Newsensus ) NZ dollar falls ahead of RBNZ report, retail sales

 GBPNZD trend & momentum chart

Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

GBPNZD trend & momentum 28-Apr-2015

GBPNZD, the trend and momentum indicates it will be reversed into downward trend against upward trend for last one week. In United Kingdom, general election will be held in less than 10 days, and the market could expect uncertainty on the election as a risk event. At the moment, New Zealand's interest rate is not likely to change.

GBPNZD Trend & Momentum 18-Nov-2014

GBPNZD has declined for last two weeks, and it stays below 1.970 now lower than closing level at the beginning of this week.

Posted as of yesterday,
AUD and NZD are relatively competitive against major currencies including GBP. GBP NZD possibly bounces back against the recent downward trend as Trend & Momentum indicates. But the upside would be limited.

GBPNZD Trend & Momentum

GBPNZD has gone down last week, and the momentum still shows downward while the trend is steeply upward. The momentum indicator will be turned to upward early next week and the trend indicator is also expected to be upward.

It implies the trend and momentum will have same direction in next week.