A.I. Range forecast for 30-Nov-2020 [Popular pairs against JPY]

A.I. Range forecasts of popular pairs against JPY until the end of Monday (UTC). For some whose last Trend and Momentum have been better fitted, their figures are also available below.

Japan is one of the biggest markets where FX trading is active among the private and corporate investors.

[AUDJPY]

Range forecast: 76.414 (-0.59%)  -  77.321 (+0.59%).

Confidence: 74.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURJPY]

Range forecast: 124.1 (-0.34%)  -  124.64 (+0.1%).
Confidence: 71.6%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[GBPJPY]

Range forecast: 138.12 (-0.31%)  -  138.6 (+0.04%).

Confidence: 73.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]

Range forecast: 103.59 (-0.49%)  -  104.26 (+0.15%).

Confidence: 69.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

A.I. Range forecast for 26-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURNZD | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts of selected FXs for next 24h. The time-line is based on UTC as usual.

[AUDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 76.409 (-0.43%)  -  77.144 (+0.52%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 73.7%.

[EURGBP] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.88877 (-0.28%)  -  0.8943 (+0.34%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 69.7%.

[EURNZD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.6953 (-0.29%)  -  1.704 (+0.22%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 74%.

[EURUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.187 (-0.28%)  -  1.1951 (+0.4%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 73.2%.

[GBPUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.3329 (-0.18%)  -  1.3419 (+0.5%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 74.4%.

[USDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 104.12 (-0.13%)  -  104.48 (+0.21%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 72.8%.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

A.I. Range forecast for 23-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts of selected FXs for 24h from the next market opening. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 75.643 (-0.22%)  -  75.968 (+0.21%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 71.9%.
The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[EURGBP] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.88843 (-0.41%)  -  0.89316 (+0.12%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 65.5%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while Upside margin is limited.

[EURUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.1838 (-0.16%)  -  1.1885 (+0.24%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 66.3%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

[GBPUSD] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.3148 (-1.06%)  -  1.3354 (+0.49%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 66%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while Upside margin is limited.

[USDJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 102.96 (-0.83%)  -  104.49 (+0.64%) , by the end of Monday.
Confidence: 68.5%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

A.I. Range forecast + Trend and Momentum for 18-Nov-2020 [EURJPY | GBPJPY]

Here are the forecasts for EURJPY and GBPJPY respectively as their Trend and Momentums are well fitted this time. The range forecast is for next 24 hours.

[EURJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 123.14 (-0.27%)  -  123.84 (+0.3%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 74.2%.
The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[GBPJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 137.68 (-0.32%)  -  138.93 (+0.58%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 75.6%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

A.I. Range forecast for 13-Nov-2020 [EURGBP | EURUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecasts for selected FXs until around the Monday afternoon. The time-line is based on UTC.

[EURGBP]

Range forecast: 0.89604 (-0.28%)  -  0.90099 (+0.27%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 63.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[EURUSD]

Range forecast: 1.1803 (-0.17%)  -  1.184 (+0.14%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 63.8%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]

Range forecast: 104.55 (-0.15%)  -  104.92 (+0.21%) , until around the Monday afternoon.
Confidence: 69.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

Why the internal market bill is controversial in Brexit-deal?

The last September, UK politics reopened arguments about the Brexit-deal by introducing an internal market bill which could potentially breach the international law. It was a bit sensational as former PMs, including David Cameron and Theresa May joined to condemn the bill.

BBC news: Fifth ex-PM speaks out against post-Brexit bill

David Cameron has become the fifth former prime minister to criticise a new bill attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

No 10 says the Internal Market Bill was a "critical piece of legislation for the UK".

But Mr Cameron said he had "misgivings" over it and breaking an international treaty should be the "final resort".

Former Tory PMs Theresa May and Sir John Major, and Labour's Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have condemned the plan. 

Since then, most of the critics focused on the government's attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal deal and a possibility of breaching the international law. But it seems little is said about how the controversial bill could fail to abide the law.

It is a little patchy information below but it is basically about the Northern Ireland Protocol preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic.

BBC news: Brexit: Ministers plan laws overriding part of withdrawal deal

Meanwhile, the government will publish its Internal Market Bill - designed to protect trade arrangements between the four parts of the UK - on Wednesday.

This could contradict the Northern Ireland Protocol, set up to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, which many fear could be detrimental to peace.

The protocol says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules - meaning customs declarations for goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain, as well as some new checks on goods going from Great Britain into Northern Ireland - after the transition period.

The Financial Times said the bill would "eliminate" the legal force of the Withdrawal Agreement, struck less than a year ago between the UK and EU, in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

On the other hand, what the new bill rules:

BBC news: What is the row over UK 'internal markets' all about?

Right now, the UK is part of the European single market, with jointly agreed regulations and standards right across the continent.

Post-Brexit, the UK government wants to continue to have a joint market across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - the "internal market".

But instead of the rules and regulations around things like food and air quality and animal welfare being set in Brussels, now they have to be set closer to home - and there is a row over who should have the final say.

Many powers are set to be directly controlled by the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish administrations, in fields including food labelling, energy efficiency and support for farmers.

However, the UK government has said the devolved administrations will still have to accept goods and services from all other parts of the UK - even if they have set different standards locally. 

The latter implies that Northern Ireland will have to accept some goods and services from the other administrations of UK regardless of the different quality standards on goods and services. The former says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules so as to prevent the hard border between them and Irish Republic. Those lead to a conclusion that the argument arises because Northern Ireland will have to accept the goods and services from the other parts of UK, which do not complying with EU custom rules to be applied. Having sorted out so far, this is a substance of the argument about the internal market bill.

A.I. Range forecast for 2-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecast until the end of next Monday for some major FXs. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 73.032 (-0.62%)  -  73.664 (+0.24%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 74.1%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURGBP]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.89689 (-0.29%)  -  0.90848 (+1%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 78.1%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

[EURUSD]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.1625 (-0.18%)  -  1.1668 (+0.19%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 68.3%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 104.26 (-0.34%)  -  104.75 (+0.13%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 67.8%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while the expected margin will be limited.

It is possible that the Trend and Momentum indicate the different direction against the A.I.'s review.

As many are aware, the US presidential election is being held on 3-Nov in US time. Financial markets, including FX, are possibly impacted according to the outcome. It must be kept in mind.

Regarding Brexit, the internal market bill is being scrutinized and voted in the House of Lords on 9-Nov. Since the bill includes some controversial clauses, there is a certain possibility the Peers could block the bill. It is 2 months to go until the transition period is over.

European currencies [GBP, EUR and CHF] are surging against JPY in a coming week?

As the major stock indices in US, European and some Asia-Pacific markets have sharply tumbled this week, their monthly declines are marking the worst in the last several months respectively.

Japanese yen which is typically considered as a safe haven has gained for the time, and the Trend and Momentums indicate some European currencies could bounce back against JPY in a coming week.

GBPJPY Trend and Momentum

EURJPY Trend and Momentum

CHFJPY Trend and Momentum

The time is based on Universal time (UTC).

[A.I.'s review (GBPJPY)]

Range forecast: 134.51 (-0.52%)  -  135.93 (+0.53%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 74.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is still considerable by the end of next Monday morning. The swing risk will be neutralized after that time.

[A.I.'s review (EURJPY)]

Range forecast: 121.43 (-0.34%)  -  122.26 (+0.35%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 71.5%.

The chance of swing is little biased toward any directions by the end of next Monday morning. Then, the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Wednesday morning, and the swing risk will be neutralized.

[A.I.'s review (CHFJPY)]

Range forecast: 113.07 (-0.72%)  -  114.35 (+0.4%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 75.6%.

The chance of Upside swing is a little more likely than Downside by the end of next Monday morning. Then. the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Tuesday morning. 

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

EURJPY jumped since the beginning of this week. Is the trend being neutralized? 20-Oct-2020

EURJPY has surged since the market opening on Monday, which currently stays around 124.59. Reviewed our forecast as of last Friday, it could say that the realized trend has been consistent with the forecast.

Today's Trend and Momentum indicates there is still a room of EURJPY going up while the A.I.'s review tells that the trend will be more neutralized.

[A.I.'s review]

Range forecast: 124.23 (-0.31%)  -  125.08 (+0.37%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 73.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside in next 24 hours. It will turn slightly Upside by this Friday's morning.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

EURJPY surging in next week? Trend and Momentum + A.I.'s review 16-Oct-2020

 As the trend and momentum of EURJPY well fitted, it indicates EURJPY is expected to surge in next week.

[A.I.'s review]

Our A.I. forecasts a short term range as below:

Range forecast: 123.08 (-0.19%)  -  123.75 (+0.35%) , until 10:15, Mon 19 Oct 2020 (UTC).

Confidence: 77.8%.

It also tells swing risk is neutral for both directions by the end of today. The chance of upside swing is more considerable from next Monday to Tuesday. Then, the risk will be observed as neutral.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Coronavirus outbreak was just an excuse and the worse will be coming to the market?

Vito Corleone (From Wikipedia)
The son of Antonio Andolini.

Don Ciccio had killed Antonio Andolini, and the Don was revenged by Antonio's son. At least, Don Ciccio was right about his future.

Don Ciccio:

...When he grows, he'll grow strong.  ...When he's a man, he'll come for revenge.

As written on the last post, the oil price digged further its bottom at which WTI crude oil contract for May reached in negative territory. Theoretically, the possibility of negative price is anticipated because of the shortage of oil storage. But I thought OPEC+ or US will prevent from the situation being worse.
Some says that hedge funds or speculators sold their holding contracts as the uncertainty of storage availability and its costs ahead.

The Irish Times: What do negative oil prices mean for the prices you pay at the pump?
... The reasons for this are complicated, but essentially for every barrel of oil consumed in the world, 30 are traded. This means that financial institutions and hedge funds are speculating now on the price of oil that will be delivered in May. Contracts for May had to be settled by April 21st, and with a raft of traders left with oil contracts on their hands in the face of extremely low demand, they were forced to offload their contracts at negative prices.

DJIA recovered since the end of March.

While the oil markets tumbled, the global stock markets have recovered since the end of last month. DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has recovered about 5,000 points (27.0%) though it is still over 6,000 lower than the record high.
Some big economies, including US and Germany, are trying to reopen their businesses as they have been suffering from the lockdown for a month. It maybe a positive sign for the market but the things are not so simple either.

What was the outlook of the financial markets before Coronavirus outbreak? The major stock indices were climbing to the historic high in recent years to decades. No one was thinking the Tokyo Olympic game would be postponed except for some conspiracy theorists.
But on the other hand, PMI numbers in the largest economies have already been in lower territory in which the outlooks were negative. German manufacturing PMI has been well below 50.0 since the beginning of 2019, and the numbers in Eurozone and Japan have been more or less similar to German one, too. UK has been struggling to get Brexit done for 2019 (since 2016). US economy has been relatively stronger than others while its PMI was also in downward trend.
While the stock markets were bullish, the real economies had started slow down even before Coronavirus outbreak. PMI is utilized as a leading indicator to forecast the economic confidence in coming months. As the PMI numbers were below 50.0 in 2019, the recent market crash could have some senses of the adjustment between the market and real economy. Coronavirus just triggered it, perhaps.
By the way, how about today's PMIs? In Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is 33.6 as of Apr-2020, the lowest since the financial crisis 2008. The composite PMI, overview of service and manufacturing sectors, is overwhelmingly 13.5, the record low.
Reminding it is a leading indicator, the economy is expected to be worse in coming months as the impact of lockdown will be realized in our economies. When it did, we would see something worse in the financial market than the last one in 2008.

When the bubble grows, the bursting impact will grow stronger. When the time comes, it devastates the market and economy.

Seems little help the financial market as invisible Coronavirus surrounding globally 1-Mar-2020

Since the late last Friday to over the weekend, some good news and bad news are running the world. But as Covid-19 cases continue increasing globally, there is little sign mitigating uncertainty surrounding the societies.

Global stock markets have suffered from massive sell off, which is the worst since the financial crisis in 2008. Although Fed implied their rate cut in March and it recovered the US markets before closing on last Friday, more and more Coronavirus cases are confirmed day after day.

Apart from Coronavirus stories, US and Taliban signed a peace agreement on Staturday, which is a good news in those days. However, it is not good enough news to boost the current grim mood because it is unclear if the agreement actually bring a peace in Afghanistan for coming months. (The Guardian: US and Taliban sign deal to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan)
By the way, the market would little care about another good news of Mr.Boris Johnson's private.

FTSE 100
Financial crisis (2007 - 2008), down 40% from peak.

Traders are keen to the tomorrow's market opening of which Asian & Pacific market is on top. Even though the major global markets are closed, the weekend markets help to anticipate the next market opening.

Hong Kong HS50 (Hong Kong),
DAX 30 (Germany),
FTSE 100 (UK),
DJIA (US)
at IG group respectively.

FTSE 100
Last 2 years, down 16% from peak. Just a beginning perhaps...

Unless any breakthroughs are implemented, this economic stagnation would be just a beginning and it is too soon to hunt cheap shares. Japan's PM Shinzo Abe called unprecedented school closure in nationwide this weekend, and it will be effective from Monday tomorrow. No such announce has been called for workers yet while some parents who have small children are arguing about difficulty to take care of their children during the school closure. If the situation is becoming worse, it could be inevitable for the government to limit the economic activities and it will be certainly a critical damage to the vulnerable economy as Chinese economy is slowing down already.
European countries are also reacting to Coronavirus spreading by emergency measures, such as cancellation of public gatherings or stricter boarder controls. Travel agencies or flight operators must be affected pretty badly.
Of course, United State is not the exception. It just recorded a first death case by Covid-19 this weekend. US stock market has been strongest for last years, but it is not clear how much Fed rate cut could stop further panic in the markets.

Unlike the financial crisis in 2008, the coronavirus does not only crash the financial markets, but possibly cease the most of people's activity. Nobody wants such draconian measures taken in Wuhan, but nobody wants to be infected by Covid-19, either. In short term, people will demand mental care, rather than vaccine which it expects to take more than a year to be supplied.

How hard to reach the trade agreement between UK and EU?

At the end of last January, UK finally relinquished the EU membership in term. British MEPs, including Mr.Farage seen one of the most prominent Brexiter, have left Brussels.

Although it just started the transition period and people's activities are not practically changed until the period, it is likely the end of "Endless" talks between UK and EU about Brexit. Now, British government whose cabinet ministers were shuffled last week has to negotiate the trade deal with European Commission. The end of the transition period is set on the end of 2020 unless it is agreed to extend the period between UK and EU while Mr.Johnson does not want to do.

Even if UK (and EU) expect to reach the agreement, how it is realistic to reach a decent deal in a year?  Due to the tight deadline, both sides tend to prioritize the negotiation issue on top. But the free trade agreements between EU and other large economies took much more time to be finalized, which also requires ratification. Here are some examples.

[EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement]
 The negotiation had started since 2013,
 Reached at the agreement on July-2018,
 Ratified on December-2018,
 Has been effective since 1-February-2019.

About 6 years to the enforcement.

[EU-Singapore FTA]
 The negotiation had started since 2010,
 Reached at the agreement on October-2018,
 EU member states endorsed on November-2019,
 Has been effective since 21-November-2019.

About 9 years to the enforcement.

[CETA, EU-Canada Economic and Trade Agreement]
 The negotiation had started since ?,
 The negotiation ended on August-2014,
 The agreement was signed on October-2016,
 Has been effective since 21-September-2017.

More than 3 years + the negotiation period, to the enforcement.

Abolishing the relationship when UK was a member state of EU and building the trade agreement from scratch, one year sounds too short to enforce the agreed deal. It implies No-deal Brexit is inevitable rather than it as the worst option. In case of No-deal Brexit, WTO rules will be basically applied to the trades between EU and UK, which is likely to happen.
The market seemed not pricing in No-deal Brexit, but as soon as UK legally rejects any extensions of the trade talk, the market will pessimistically react.

[Updated on 16-Oct-2020]

UK PM mentioned Britons should get ready for no-deal Brexit today as it is still unclear to reach an agreement so-called Canada-style deal. He would seek an alternative like Australia-style deal.

The Guardian: Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit

“A lot of progress has been made on such issues as social security and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and son on,” he said, but “for whatever reason, it’s clear from the [EU] summit that after 45 years of [UK] membership they are not willing, unless there’s some fundamental change of approach, to offer this country the same terms as Canada”.

He said that given there were only 10 weeks left until the transition period ended, he had to make a judgment about the likely outcome and to prepare the country.

“I concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s – based on simple principles of global free trade,” he told reporters in a pooled broadcast statement.

EU and Australia started their trade negotiation in May 2018, and it seems the agreement has not been made by now since the negotiation is kicked off. It looks unrealistic for UK to reach a full agreement with EU by the end of 2020.

Ref.
EU-Japan trade agreement on track to enter into force in February 2019
The EU-Singapore agreements explained
Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
CETA – The European-Canadian Economic and Trade Agreement
Australia - Trade - European Commission

BBC news: Brexit: What is the transition period?

Mr.Johnson won decisive majority, but the market doesn't look optimistic enough?

[EURGBP is approaching the level near Brexit referendum 2016]

The UK election yesterday resulted a big trophy for Tory and Mr.Johnson, and British pound scarcely reacted stronger before the exit polls released. While the FX market responded optimistically as concerns over the hung parliament faded away, it doesn't mean No-deal Brexit is ruled out from the plan.

On the Brexit day which is no later than 31-Jan-2020, UK actually doesn't get Brexit done, but they just start the trade talk with EU. The trade deal is expected to be agreed and ratified by Dec-2020, otherwise the consequence could be No-deal Brexit on Jan-2021 unless the extension is given.

Observing EURGBP market, GBP moved stronger yesterday but it is still weaker than the level before Brexit referendum 2016. It also implies that the market cannot be as optimistic as it was before the referendum. Perhaps, No-deal possibility is still priced in.

Ref. BBC News: Brexit: What happens now?

UK election and GBP on 12-Dec-2019

UK election is ahead on 12-Dec-2019, which held first time on December since 1923.
According to the latest polls, it predicts Tory's majority while it's not comfortable enough to avoid a hung parliament.

Evening Standard: UK opinion polls: Conservatives set for majority of 28... but hung parliament possible as support drops
YouGov has interviewed approximately 100,000 people about their voting intentions in the past seven days.
It said the margin of error could put the final number of Tory seats anywhere between 311 and 367, suggesting a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out.
Sterling fell by around a third of a cent against the US dollar after the news. Financial markets fear a hung parliament would extend the uncertainty over if or when Britain will leave the European Union, which it is currently due to do on January 31,

As mentioned on the above story, outcome of the hung parliament will drag GBP down sharply as the uncertainty over Brexit consequence.
EURGBP is currently near the level after the Brexit referendum 2016.
If British constituencies successfully avoid the hung parliament, the Tory's Brexit deal is expected to be passed before 31-Jan. (some days of technical extension maybe in the worst case.) In this case, GBP will be stronger, approaching toward the level before the Brexit referendum (EURGBP below 0.80).
If it resulted as a hung parliament, EURGBP could jump to around 0.90 - 0.92 up to the highest in 2019.

In the meantime, today's trend and momentum of EURGBP indicates the upward direction in a coming week including the UK election date, which implies the possible hung parliament outcome...
While we recommend to watch out the latest polls, it is also interesting to see if the indicator still reasonably work under the critical event against the market. Let's see tomorrow.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Swiss Franc could surge in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 26-Nov-2019

Looking at the latest trend and momentums of EURCHF and USDCHF, they are expected to be into downward trend which means Swiss Franc will be relatively stronger against both Euro and US Dollar.

EURCHF Trend and Momentum

USDCHF Trend and Momentum

On this Wednesday, ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) will publish their survey expectations which consist of business conditions, employment conditions and the other factors in Switzerland. (ZEW Survey - Expectations)

If the actual figure beat the market consensus or expectation, it would be positive for Swiss Franc, which could lead the currency more bullish Of course, in case the figure disappointing the market, Swiss Franc can be into bearish trend. The point is that ZEW publication on Wednesday is a remarkable one which could affect Swiss Franc fundamentally.

Regarding US Dollar, much more economic events are on ahead in coming days. (See the economic calendar on QROSS X). Perhaps, USDCHF can be more volatile than EURCHF in a coming week.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Canadian Dollar trend reversed shortly even though BoC turned to be dovish stance? 2-Nov-2019

Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened against major currencies including GBP and EUR in the last week. Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 1.75% while they turned dovish, concerning about global trade conflict.

Reuters: Canadian dollar hits two-week low as Bank of Canada takes dovish turn
Canada’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.75% as expected but left the door open to a possible cut over the coming months to help the economy weather the damaging effects of global trade conflicts.

“The loonie has sold off post-statement due to the fact that the BoC is beginning to witness the effects of external headwinds on the Canadian economy,” said Simon Harvey, FX market analyst for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

The central bank’s “dovish stance” raises expectations for policy easing, “especially if the economic data and external climate deteriorates further,” Harvey said.

Money markets moved to fully price in a rate cut as early as July. Before the announcement, chances of a cut next year were seen at less than 50%. BOCWATCH

It seems that expectations of the rate cuts next year is taken into account in the price, and BoC still kept 'Neutral' stance on the rates. Natural bounce back can be expected shortly against the overheated mood in FX market. (Of course, there is a possibility BoC may withdraw neutral stance, changing to pessimistic as their concerns in the future.)

BNN Bloomberg: Bank of Canada holds rates, warns economy will be 'tested'
The statement and the fresh batch of more pessimistic growth forecasts will raise questions about the central bank’s commitment to a neutral stance on rates, particularly in the face of global easing in many other countries that has made the Bank of Canada an outlier. If the Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates later today, as expected, the Bank of Canada would have the highest policy rate in the industrialized world.

In the meantime, our trend and momentum signals indicate CAD surging against GBP and EUR in a coming week.

GBPCAD Trend and Momentum

EURCAD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

US Dollar surging as its trade tension with China eased 1-Jul-2019

After G20 conference in Osaka, US Dollar has been surging against other currencies as the market sees US's trade tension with China eased.
>> CNBC: Dollar advances to 2-week high after US-China trade tensions ease

The below charts describe AUDUSD and EURUSD respectively since the late last week.

[AUDUSD]

[EURUSD]

On 27-Jun last week, we picked up the Trend and Momentum for AUDUSD and EURUSD. Maybe coincident? or the signal just worked? Who knows...

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

US Dollar bullish shortly? Trend and Momentum on 27-Jun-2019

For the last few months, the world have been in geopolitical turbulence, consisting of US-China trade tension and US-Iran relation symbolically. UK's new prime minister will be designated by the end of July, while the recent poll indicates Mr.Boris Johnson is more likely to be a new PM than the foreign secretary Mr.Jeremy Hunt.

>> UK’s next prime minister — who are the lead candidates?

Let's shift the gear to technical matters, USD is expected to surge in a coming week according to the Trend and Momentum. The signal is more particularly observed in AUDUSD and EURUSD.

AUDUSD

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]

EURUSD

[USD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Japanese Market sleeping for a coming Golden week, USDJPY vs N225

This year, Japanese people have the longest consecutive national holidays for 10 days, and it started today. Tokyo market will have been closed for next week and on Monday in another week after the next. While Japanese stock market is closed, Forex market is opened in the world and the price naturally moves in Japanese Golden week.

As many investors who look at Japanese market know, N225 and USDJPY are positively correlated though the correlation has been relatively lower than before. Still, compared with other markets, for example FTSE100 vs GBPUSD, CAC40 vs EURUSD or DAX vs EURUSD, the two indexes of N225 and USDJPY have always positive correlations for a reasonable time frame (e.g. 1 year).

The point of this Japan's holiday season is how N225 moves on the first business day after the Golden week, 7-May-2019. Let's have a look at the historical correlation between N225 vs USDJPY, whose correlation period is 250 points for each.

[USDJPY and N225 for last 5 years]

[250 days Correlation USDJPY vs N225]

The current correlation (250D) is at around 40%. Whatever this number is considered, it could anticipate N225 after the holidays follows the direction of USDJPY for next week. USDJPY's latest closing is at around 111.60. Japanese investors would hope the market not to be volatile drastically...

The one side correlation seems be particular in Japanese market, and it is not for some other markets. In European markets, the stock indexes and exchange rates are correlated actually, but the correlation moves in positive as well as negative territories.
Look at other examples in European markets, the below figures describe the correlation between FTSE100 vs GBPUSD.

[GBPUSD and FTSE100 for last 5 years]

[250 days Correlation GBPUSD vs FTSE100]

And the correlation between CAC40 vs EURUSD and DAX vs EURUSD. (Correlation figure only)

[250 days Correlation EURUSD vs CAC40 and DAX respectively]

Their latest correlations are positive, but the numbers are varied from time to time more than Japanese market. However, Europeans do not have such Golden week anyway...