Australian Dollar surging in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 4-Sep-2020

The stock markets have well surged since last April despite Covid-19 having devastated in the world. It is most likely because of the excessive liquidity brought by central banks in major economies. Even though DJIA down more than 800 points yesterday, it is too soon to conclude the upward trend is over.

Back to the topic, the latest Trend and Momentum indicate Australian dollar could surge in a coming week after reaching the bottom. If you want to see the Trend and Momentums for other FX pairs, visit: QROSS X - Trend and Momentums.

AUDCAD Trend and Momentum

AUDJPY Trend and Momentum

AUDUSD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

US Dollar surging as its trade tension with China eased 1-Jul-2019

After G20 conference in Osaka, US Dollar has been surging against other currencies as the market sees US's trade tension with China eased.
>> CNBC: Dollar advances to 2-week high after US-China trade tensions ease

The below charts describe AUDUSD and EURUSD respectively since the late last week.

[AUDUSD]

[EURUSD]

On 27-Jun last week, we picked up the Trend and Momentum for AUDUSD and EURUSD. Maybe coincident? or the signal just worked? Who knows...

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

US Dollar bullish shortly? Trend and Momentum on 27-Jun-2019

For the last few months, the world have been in geopolitical turbulence, consisting of US-China trade tension and US-Iran relation symbolically. UK's new prime minister will be designated by the end of July, while the recent poll indicates Mr.Boris Johnson is more likely to be a new PM than the foreign secretary Mr.Jeremy Hunt.

>> UK’s next prime minister — who are the lead candidates?

Let's shift the gear to technical matters, USD is expected to surge in a coming week according to the Trend and Momentum. The signal is more particularly observed in AUDUSD and EURUSD.

AUDUSD

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]

EURUSD

[USD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Australian Dollar surging in a coming week? Trend and Momentum on 30-Apr-2019

Australian Dollar (AUD) 's performance has been bearish for about last two weeks against some major currencies CAD or USD while NZD has been even weaker since the end of March.

Australian economy fairly depends on Chinese economy which is under pressure, and the second biggest economy could drive Australian economy and the value of its currency.

As a matter of technical indicators for the short term, the Trend and Momentum are indicating AUD could be surging in a coming week, and quick downturn after surging is also anticipated.

AUDCAD

[AUDCAD Trend and Momentum as of 30-Apr-2019]

AUDUSD

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum as of 30-Apr-2019]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

USD downward trend in a coming week?

ECB's (dovish) decision shocked Forex market yesterday as their negative outlook to the European economy and geopolitical uncertainties over the world, such as Brexit, US-China trade war, ...

On the other hand, in short term horizon, USD have been relatively stronger for a last couple of week against major currencies JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, GBP and EUR of course. Our trend and momentum signals indicate this bullish USD could get bounce back. In the next week, more stories about Brexit anticipated, the market could turn more negative mood. If it is, JPY or CHF which are traditionally safe asset in bearish market can be relatively stronger in the negative market.

Here are some of snapshots from the trend and momentum charts. Those are as of the beginning of today (UTC).

[GBPUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[EURUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

EURUSD jumped after yesterday's ECB decision.




[NZDUSD Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[USDCHF Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

[USDJPY Trend and Momentum 8-Mar-2019]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Correlation AUD vs Commodities 29-May-2016

The oil price is bounce back in 2016, where we see US$48 for WTI crude oil price, and it was around $37 at the end of 2015.
More remarkably, the gold price have been upward trend since early this year, where XAU/USD is 1220, and it was around 1062 at the end of 2015.

Australian dollar (AUD) is historically correlated with commodity price as commodity trade is one of their major export. The below figure shows 3 month correlation AUD vs Crude oil and AUD vs XAU respectively.

As seen there, those correlations have positive values, particularly with XAU. Although RBA cut the interest rate and AUD got weaken, AUD is fundamentally strong from the point of commodity price.
XAU is usually bought against USD when uncertainty is anticipated. US is having the presidential election which could be an uncertain factor (geo)politically.
Recovery of the oil price also support increasing commodity price.
Australia has kept the highest ratings, AAA (S&P), Aaa (MDY) and AAA (Fitch), which are evaluated in stable.
AUD has been sold for last 3-4 years due to their monetary policy, but it has fundamentally very positive perspectives.

Back to the correlation matter, currently 3 month correlation shows -10.0% in AUD vs XAU and -19.0% in AUD vs Crude oil. As seen in historical data, those correlations are likely to bounce back to highly positive territory soon or later. As far as the upward trend of commodity price keep ahead, AUD is expected to be upward trend, too.

By the way, our business Apps are available on Google play. Of course, they are free.
>> Forex signal by QROSS X
>> Newsensus [Business & Economy]

Too soon to call it "Crisis"? 22-Aug-2015

SSE Composite Index in CNY and USD

Stock price has steeply gone down in major economic zones in the world, lead by Chinese market, followed by such US, UK, Western Europe, Asia and Pacific.

Without particular events, such as Sub-prime loan crisis or Lehman crisis, the crisis is defined after the stock market crashed into bottom. Although the stock market has plunged sharply, in SSE Composite Index, the current level is still almost same or slightly above the level at the beginning of this year.

This is both in CNY and USD.

S&P/ASX 200 in AUD and USD

It means, even though CNY itself has been devalued this month, the stock index is still higher than the value at beginning of the year.

However, looking at Australian stock index S&P/ASX200, the level is already record low within last 4 - 5 years in USD, while it is still above the level at beginning of 2015 in AUD. This is because of weakness in AUD in last 3 years.

The stock market is highly correlated as realized last October or movement in this month.

CITY A.M. >> Chaos on European markets as FTSE 100 tumbles, while S&P 500 crashes below 2,000 points

There still seems be room where Chinese stock market is going down, the correlation could bring more chaos into other economic zones than China itself.

See Stock indexes for other economic zones.

Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

Economic Growth or FX Trick? 20-Nov-2014

When the stock market has gone up from 6,400 [GBP] to 6,700 [GBP] in UK market, many people recognize this fact as positive news.

Probably, it would be positive new or at least not negative. However, if GBPUSD has moved from 1.6136 to 1.5414 at the same time, the stock market price in USD is unchanged at 10,327 [USD].

USD is still a key currency in the global market, and it could make us to discover the gap between real economy and stock market trend.

First example is NIKKEI 225, Japanese stock index. Since early 2013, BOJ started large scaled QE in the financial market, aimed at economic growth.

Nikkei 225 index had gone up both in JPY and USD that time.
However, since another QE announcement at the end of last Oct, Nikkei 225 has largely gone up in JPY but not in USD. Correlation between Nikkei 225 in JPY and USD is lower at the moment comparing with 2013.

This implies that the market jump in 2013 has economic growth or expectation but the jump since last Oct is caused by FX effect in USDJPY. While Nikkei 225 is going up in JPY, USDJPY is going down to offset the value in USD.




Another example is S&P ASX 200 in Australian stock market. Most of the period since 2004, correlation between the index in AUD and USD is higher except for the period from 2013 to early 2014. RBA had cut Australian interest rate since 2012 to 2013, and AUDUSD had gone down.

Looking at the stock index, value in AUD had gone up in stable pace during 2012 to 2013 while value in USD had moved in more volatile pace. The correlation between value in AUD and USD has
been relatively smaller in the period.

Assuming USD is a key currency to measure the value, economic growth or expectation had been unstable during the period, and it is probably true considering uncertainty in Chinese market and European debt crisis.

Common point in both Japanese and Australian stock market is that the central bank provide liquidity into the financial market by monetary policy or quantitative easing in the particular period. In such period, actual value of the local currency can be changed and it makes stock market jump even if the value of stock unchange.

AUDUSD Trend & Momentum 14-Nov-2014

AUD has been stronger than major currencies, USD, EUR, GBP or JPY for last one week. NZD has been stronger as well as AUD.

The trend & momentum in AUDUSD shows that it will be turned into downward trend in a coming week. Unless particular news or surprise are coming up early next week, AUDUSD and cross-AUD FX can be adjusted, following to the indicators.

However, GBP, EUR and JPY would be still weaker than other major currencies due to their monetary policies. It means that the strength of trend reversal in GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDJPY will be limited, comparing with AUDUSD.


Tweet

For more currency pairs, Forex trend & momentum signals available on Google play.

Cross-USD Trend & Momentum 9-Nov-2014

USD has been stronger against most of major currencies, EUR, GBP, AUD and particularly JPY due to BOJ announced additional QE since end of last month. Japanese stock market also has shot up.
Although fundamentals imply USD can be stronger in economic situation while Europe and Japan central bank keep QE, some market analysts and Trend & Momentum signal indicate USD will be less strong against other currencies.


Tweet

For more currency pairs, Forex trend & momentum signals available on Google play.