A.I. Range forecast + Trend and Momentum for 13-Nov-2020 [AUDNZD | GBPCAD | CHFJPY]

 The range forecasts for selected FXs until the end of Monday morning. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDNZD] To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.0585 (-0.29%)  -  1.0652 (+0.34%) , until the end of Monday morning (UTC).
Confidence: 75.8%.

[GBPCAD] To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.7235 (-0.34%)  -  1.7398 (+0.6%) , until the end of Monday morning (UTC).
Confidence: 72.3%.

[CHFJPY] To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 114.38 (-0.23%)  -  114.88 (+0.21%) , until the end of Monday morning (UTC).
Confidence: 73.8%.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Canadian Dollar trend reversed shortly even though BoC turned to be dovish stance? 2-Nov-2019

Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened against major currencies including GBP and EUR in the last week. Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 1.75% while they turned dovish, concerning about global trade conflict.

Reuters: Canadian dollar hits two-week low as Bank of Canada takes dovish turn
Canada’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.75% as expected but left the door open to a possible cut over the coming months to help the economy weather the damaging effects of global trade conflicts.

“The loonie has sold off post-statement due to the fact that the BoC is beginning to witness the effects of external headwinds on the Canadian economy,” said Simon Harvey, FX market analyst for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

The central bank’s “dovish stance” raises expectations for policy easing, “especially if the economic data and external climate deteriorates further,” Harvey said.

Money markets moved to fully price in a rate cut as early as July. Before the announcement, chances of a cut next year were seen at less than 50%. BOCWATCH

It seems that expectations of the rate cuts next year is taken into account in the price, and BoC still kept 'Neutral' stance on the rates. Natural bounce back can be expected shortly against the overheated mood in FX market. (Of course, there is a possibility BoC may withdraw neutral stance, changing to pessimistic as their concerns in the future.)

BNN Bloomberg: Bank of Canada holds rates, warns economy will be 'tested'
The statement and the fresh batch of more pessimistic growth forecasts will raise questions about the central bank’s commitment to a neutral stance on rates, particularly in the face of global easing in many other countries that has made the Bank of Canada an outlier. If the Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates later today, as expected, the Bank of Canada would have the highest policy rate in the industrialized world.

In the meantime, our trend and momentum signals indicate CAD surging against GBP and EUR in a coming week.

GBPCAD Trend and Momentum

EURCAD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Australian Dollar surging in a coming week? Trend and Momentum on 30-Apr-2019

Australian Dollar (AUD) 's performance has been bearish for about last two weeks against some major currencies CAD or USD while NZD has been even weaker since the end of March.

Australian economy fairly depends on Chinese economy which is under pressure, and the second biggest economy could drive Australian economy and the value of its currency.

As a matter of technical indicators for the short term, the Trend and Momentum are indicating AUD could be surging in a coming week, and quick downturn after surging is also anticipated.

AUDCAD

[AUDCAD Trend and Momentum as of 30-Apr-2019]

AUDUSD

[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum as of 30-Apr-2019]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Review of New Zealand Dollar for last 3 days

Having recently posted an article about NZD forecast, we review those forecasts of NZDCAD, NZDUSD and NZDJPY which were picked up.

Although some of them once downed further, NZD has reverted against the downward trend for the past two weeks. It proves nothing in fact as no one can predict the future market at 100% surely. For the traders and our App users, it encourages that better fitted analysis would lead to more precise forecast.
Figures of those three FXs in Forecast vs Realized market are described as below. NZDCAD had downed a little bit more sharply at the analysis, and it seemed to have less room to deepen further for last 3 days.

[NZDCAD Forecast vs Realized market]

NZDCAD Trend & Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZDCAD 23 to 26-Apr-2019 (TradingView)

[NZDUSD Forecast vs Realized market]

NZDUSD Trend & Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZDUSD 23 to 26-Apr-2019 (TradingView)

[NZDJPY Forecast vs Realized market]

NZDJPY Trend & Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZDJPY 23 to 26-Apr-2019 (TradingView)

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NZD reviving in a couple of weeks? Trend and Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZD has sharply fallen since the late of last month. Particularly, NZDUSD has been downed by about 3.5%, and NZDCAD by 3.8% respectively.
It might have been a tricky situation in the forex market in this April, not just only for NZD but also for CHF which experienced a worst month since 2017 according to Bloomberg.

[Bloomberg] Franc Set for Worst Month Since 2017 Means SNB ‘Sleeps Easier’
The franc is headed for its worst month in almost two years, bringing relief to Swiss policy makers seeking a weaker currency in their quest to revive inflation.

The currency has lost about 2.5 percent of its value against the euro this month, a depreciation not matched since July 2017. The drop is spurring a re-think among some analysts, who are looking to revise their currency forecasts given the collapse in market volatility that has failed to boost demand for haven currencies.

In the meantime, the Trend and Momentum signals indicate NZD could revive in a coming week. The signals against USD, CAD and JPY.

NZDUSD Trend and Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZDCAD Trend and Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

NZDJPY Trend and Momentum on 23-Apr-2019

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBP against AUD, CAD and NZD in a few coming days. Follow the Brexit issues.

Once we have continuously picked up Trend and Momentum analysis from the list of FX. (You will find all of them on our website or Android app)
Those were just the examples which are expected to help users to understand how to see the Trend and Momentum indicators. Since our last update was long while ago, it seems be harder to find our articles in old days. It's probably reasonable to update some examples in the latest market now.

According to the update on the beginning of 22-Feb (UTC), the analysis result had indicated downward trend in GBPAUD, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. Those have downed by approx 0.40%, 0.60% and 0.55% respectively. While the momentary backlash would be likely, the Trend and Momentum still shows further room to downward.

[GBPAUD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.831.
Analyzed bottom by 1.80 (-1.69%).







[GBPCAD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.714.
Analyzed bottom by 1.70 (-0.82%).







[GBPNZD Trend and Momentum on 22-Feb-2019 UTC]

Last closed at 1.90.
Analyzed bottom by 1.88 (-1.05%).







It's just a reminder that GBP would be sensitive to Brexit issues including some speculations. A new Brexit deal is expected to be reached by 26-Feb next week. Otherwise, Theresa May would return to House of Common for further discussion with MPs.

[BBC] Brexit: What happens now?
If the EU were to agree to changes and MPs backed the adjusted deal, that would be a great result for Theresa May.

But senior EU politicians have said they will not reopen the legal text of the withdrawal agreement that they negotiated with the UK.

If MPs aren't satisfied with any adjusted deal put before them they could reject it again. Theresa May has also promised that even if she can't get the changes she's after, she would return to the House of Commons yet again on 27 February and allow MPs a further day of debate.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

AUDCAD trend & momentum, economic figures released in a coming week 7-Dec-2015

AUDCAD stays around 0.9816 now, and it has steeply gone up for a last week. The latest trend and momentum signal indicates AUDCAD is expected to be reversed into downward trend for a coming week. Keep in mind that economic figures will be released over the week in both Australia and Canada. While technical analysis works under economic events, checking the predictable events maximizes your profit from trading activity.

The Sydney Morning Herald >> Flood of leading indicators arrive this week
The ANZ job ads, National Australia Bank's business confidence and conditions, and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index come in early this week.
The business and consumer confidence figures will be watched for signs that a wave of approval following Malcolm Turnbull's appointment in September as Prime Minister was more than just a honeymoon period. Westpac-MI's consumer sentiment index in particular read 101.7, a near two-year high, last month. A number over 100 signals that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Wall Street Journal >> Key Canada Events: Week of December 7 to 11
Highlights on this week’s Canadian events calendar include a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, the latest read on the country’s housing market and earnings from a few big retailers.

Stephen Poloz, governor of Canada’s central bank, is scheduled to deliver a speech in Toronto on Tuesday. The topic of his speech, after which Mr. Poloz will take questions, is entitled “The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” The governor’s appearance comes less than a week after the central bank held its key interest rate steady at 0.5% and said Canada’s economy faces a “complex and lengthy” transition amid lower commodity prices.

Also on Tuesday, Canada’s main housing agency – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. -- will release housing starts for November. National Bank said it expects a softening in starts to around 195,000, based on declining building-permit applications. Building permits unexpectedly declined in September -- the latest reading -- on weaker demand to construct condominium units and single-detached homes. Housing starts in October fell 14.4% to an annual rate of 198,065.

Market events from 23-Nov-2015

The market events which are likely to affect to FX market. Find out more at QROSS X.

18:00 23-Nov, GMT, US 2 year Note Auction;
    Key currency >> USD

00:05 24-Nov, GMT, Australia RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech;
    Key currency >> AUD

09:00 24-Nov, GMT, UK Inflation Report Hearings;
    Key currency >> GBP

15:30, 24-Nov, GMT, Canada Bank of Canada Review;
    Key currency >> CAD


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPCAD Trend & momentum 17-Nov-2015

Particularly for a last few months, Forex market tends to be driven by jump rather than gradual trend. Geopolitical risk has clearly arisen since later 2014, and it is increasing as Paris terror attack last weekend. Nowadays, news and information spread much quicker than past, and they are more digitally formatted.
Those have been likely to contribute changing behaviour in Forex market.

By the way, trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is expected downward trend in a coming week. As military action is becoming stronger, demand for oil can be increased, which is generally positive for the currencies such as CAD. Tomorrow 18-Nov, 10y bond auction will be held in UK, whose result could drive GBP.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

USDCAD Trend & momentum 11-Nov-2015

USD has been up and down for some weeks because of uncertainty whether Federal Reserve increase their interest rate by the end of 2015.

GBP was another currency whose interest rate had been expected going up. However, in earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted their interest rate will stay lower for longer. GBP has gone down sharply against major currencies including USD and JPY.

The Telegraph >> Mark Carney suggests interest rates will stay lower for longer

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said he still sees the need for gradual interest rates rises to bring inflation back to target, but latest forecasts signal a hike in the cost of borrowing may not come for another year.

Mr Carney, who previously said the decision on whether to raise rates would come into "sharper relief" around the turn of the year, said the economic picture had changed in recent months as the global economy has slowed.

He warned the outlook for global growth had weakened since the Bank's last inflation report in August and added that there was a risk of a "more abrupt slowdown in China", which could hit UK growth.

His comments follow the Bank's decision once more to keep interest rates at 0.5%, where they have remained for more than six years.

By the way, the trend and momentum for USDCAD indicates it is expected going down in a coming week. Fundamentally, expectation for the rate rise is a driving factor to USD in short term. If the market consensus expect the rate will not rise by the end of this year, USD could go down sharply against major currencies.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

AUDCAD Trend & momentum 7-Aug-2015

AUDCAD has been upward trend since last interest rate decison by RBA. On the other side, CAD had been weaker againt other currencies after the unexpected rate cut with concerned statistical figure last month.

In the mean time, the trend and momentum indicates AUDCAD will be downward trend in a coming week, implying bounce back from the upward trend.

NZD interest rate cut further next week? 16-Jul-2015

Canadian dollar
 Yesterday, Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut 25bp at the interest rate which is now 0.50%. This is because of uncertainty in such energy sector or export of manufacturing goods, according to the source. CAD has been weaken against other currencies. GBPCAD was around 1.9995 before the rate changing and it is 2.022 now.

Financial Post >> David Rosenberg: Why the Bank of Canada cut now


New Zealand Dollar
 On the other side, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) plans the rate decision 23-Jul in next week. NZD has been weak against other major currencies such as GBP and USD since beginning of this year. The interest rate has been expected to be cut this year, as it was mentioned on this blog last Jan.
If the rate is cut next week, NZD will be likely weaker even though the market will have already expected the rate cut. Actually, the inflation rate is lower than RBNZ targeted, and it implies the interest rate is expected to be cut further. GBPNZD is at around 2.393 now, the highest level for almost 6 years.

Scoop >> Keep the interest rate cuts coming - 16 July
Today’s inflation release by Statistics New Zealand showed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.3% annually and 0.4% on last quarter; inflation continues to come in at well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target band of 1% to 3% over the medium term – more cuts are justified and helpful to counteract headwinds in our economy, says the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
NZMEA Chief Executive Dieter Adam says, “Inflation remains low and the June CPI would have been flat on last quarter if not for petrol prices. This is further reason for the RBNZ to keep cutting interest rates over this year, to spur growth and help the New Zealand dollar continue its downward trend, improving the competitiveness of our manufacturers and exporters. The continued fall of the currency will also help our dairy sector and the related manufacturers, who are facing hard times with the reduction in dairy prices.


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GBPCAD Trend & momentum 18-Jun-2015

GBPCAD had declined around the earlier days in last two weeks, and it has been upward trend after the earlier decline.
The trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is around the peak of upward trend, and it is expected trend reversal into downward trend for a coming week.

Tomorrow, several economic figures, including Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, are revealed in Canada. In UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced tomorrow.

To check more information about fundamentals, please see QROSS X website.

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EURCAD trend & momentum 23-Mar-2015

EURCAD has jumped up ealier market, while the trend and momentum indicates it will be downward trend later.

GBPCAD trend & momentum 27-Jan-2015

GBP has been stronger against some major currencies, such as AUD, NZD or CAD but not USD or JPY.
 GBPCAD, the trend and momentum indicates trend reversal for a coming week while it has been upward trend for the last week. In those days, FX can be driven by unexpected events, but GBP and CAD seem be less volatile relatively for coming days.

 See upcoming events here.

Policy driven market 22-Jan-2015

Last week, SNB announcement about Franc cap removal brought the hugest impact in currency market. However, certain level of surprise have seen in the market for this week.

Canadian Dollar [CAD]
Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut the overnight rate 25bp from 1.0% to 0.75%. CAD has been declined against most of major currencies after the announcement. According to the announcement, plummeting oil price weigh on Canadian economy.

GBPCAD has stayed around 1.82 - 1.83 earlier this week, and now it is around 1.86 though it is less than the peek in this week.

Ref. Bank of Canada cuts key rate to 0.75% as oil plunge takes toll on economy


Danish Krone [DKK]
Danish Krone has been weaken due to the consensus that DKK peg to EUR could be abandoned for ECB announcement. Danish Central Bank responded to ECB announcement, cutting interest rate. EURDKK stays around 7.44, which was 7.43 at the beginning of this week.

Ref. REFILE-UPDATE 2-Danish c. bank intervenes to weaken crown, cools rate cut talk


Euro [EUR]
It was not surprised that ECB announced that they will bring additional QE. However, ECB indicated the monthly purchase for 60 billion euro more than the market consensus 50 billion euro. EUR has been down after the announcement against major currencies.

Ref. 
GLOBAL MARKETS- Shares rise, euro slides as markets cheer ECB QE plan
UPDATE 4-Oil prices above $49 ahead of ECB bond buying move


Sometimes, the surprise by political matters makes financial market more volatile, but it might have been more than expected since last week. Greek election is still ahead, and it may bring further volatility into the market.

While many market events have been driven from European market, unexpected events could come from Asian Pacific market.
Australian dollar is considered as higher than RBA prefers, which the governor of RBA mentioned last month. (RBA boss Glenn Stevens says 75 US cents is ideal level for Aussie dollar)
If Chinese market indicates its slow down clearly, Chinese interest rate could be cut further and Australian economy would be slow down due to their dependence on Chinese economy.

USDCAD trend & momentum 19-Jan-2015

USDCAD stays at around 1.197, which has gone up for last two weeks.Now the trend and momentum indicates USDCAD is expected slightly downward trend for a coming week.

Some important events are planned in this week though they are European issues, such as ECB decision or Greek election.
 Market consensus will be more conservative in this period, and conservative currencies, such as JPY, might be stronger in this period.

EURCAD trend & momentum 7-Jan-2015

EURCAD, the trend and momentum indicates it is expected to be upward trend, though the short term momentum is still indicating  downward.
 Two main risk factors exist on EUR, additional quantitative easing by ECB and Greece exit from Eurozone. EURCAD could be sensitive to those factors.

FX rate for last 10 years against USD 21-Dec-2014

As you know, Russian Ruble (RUB) has massively dropped in its value against other major currencies, particularly against USD,  since the Crimea issue and crude oil price plunged.

This RUB dropping is one of topics in the latest FX market, however other major currencies have been under the trend reversal for last ten years over the Lehman crisis.


1. Currencies down around 50% for last 10 years

< Figure I >

 The chart on the right describes the change rate of USD value per each currency value per since Dec 2004. RUB value has gone down to less than half of the value at 2004, and South African Rand (ZAR) value has also dropped around half of the value at 2004.



2. Brazilian real

< Figure II >

BRLUSD have changed only 1.1% from 2004, but the current value has gone down 42% from maximum value in last 10 years. BRLUSD at Dec 2011 was around 0.5358 and BRLUSD at Dec 2014 is around 0.3743.

If you bought 3yr BRL bond for BRL 2M at Dec 2011, the equivalent value in USD is

 (Issue at Dec 2011) 1,071,600 [USD]
 (Redemption at Dec 2014) 748,600 [USD].

It means you would lose 323,000 [USD] from this investment. BRL is a non-deliverable currency, and it could be settled in USD. Even if the interest rate in BRL is as high as 5.0%, the capital loss could not be covered.


3. Trend reversal within last 3 years
Another remarkable trend reversal after the Lehman crisis could be observed in JPY and AUD whose values have been downward trend since 2012 - 2013. Those currencies are considered relatively stronger after the Lehman crisis but the trend has reversed around that time.

< Figure III >

JPY has dropped against major currencies since the Japanese election on Dec 2012 and quantitative easing with the new administration. Australian interest rate has cut from 4.25% (Jan 2012) to 2.50% (Aug 2013) record low level, and AUD has turned into downward trend for that time and after. JPYUSD and AUDUSD have changed -34% and -17% respectively for last 3 years only though -14% and +4.7% for last 10 years.


4. General comments
AUD, CAD, SEK, NOK and RUB, which are considered sensitive to the oil price, have gone down later 2014 due to the crude oil price down.

< Figure IV >

GBP, NZD and CHF have been on flattened trend relatively since 2011 while other currencies have started dropping against USD.

< Figure V >

For earlier 2015, the crude oil price is one of the biggest factors leading financial trend. RUB is the most sensitive currency at the moment. If those were going to out of control, emerging market could collapse and even the developed markets could be in crisis like domino.


Related posts)
Stock Market Risk: Correlation and Triple top 26-Nov-2014
Crude Oil vs Stock market in correlation 1-Dec-2014

NZDCAD Trend & Momentum 16-Dec-2014

NZDCAD currently stays around 0.906. NZDCAD has hiked for the last week and reached the highest level 0.915 since the beginning of this month.

The trend and momentum indicates NZDCAD could turn into downward trend in a coming week targeting around 0.880 the lowest level for last two weeks.

Some market analysts say that RUB has been sold massively due to the crude oil price going down remarkably, and the currencies of countries with plenty of natural resources, such as CAD, AUD or emerging currencies have been weak against other major currencies. It implies CAD is still under the uncertainty of fundamentals factor though the signal indicates NZDCAD downward trend.


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