Brexit, US-NorthKorea summit, US-China trade war,... Several geopolitical uncertainties are surrounding the global economy. Here is just a list of upcoming events that could fluctuate the market in coming months. Some more events maybe added.
12-Mar-2019 The meaningful vote on Brexit deal (Downing Street insists)
Guardian: Brexit meaningful vote will go ahead, says No 10, despite talks stalling
>> Downing Street said the talks had been “difficult”, but stressed the vote would take place on Tuesday, as committed by May. If it is lost, MPs will vote on successive days on whether to block a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend the departure date.
29-Mar-2019 Brexit or the departure date extended?
>> After the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal, It will be clear whether Brexit happens on 29-Mar or is delayed.
9-Apr-2019 Israeli general election
>> The current PM Mr.Netanyahu is facing accusation of corruption, who have been PM since 2009.
28-Apr-2019 Spanish general election
>> The right wing populist party Vox is rising while People's Party (PP) which is the current majority is likely to struggle. The centrist party Ciudadanos have not seemed to appeal enough to get majority at the parliament.
23 and 26-May-2019 European Parliament election
The Economist: Volt wants to become the first pan-EU political party
>> Volt, now has thousands of members across 30 countries (the eu28 plus Albania and Switzerland), and will run in the European Parliament elections next year. On October 27th about 450 delegates met in Amsterdam to approve the party’s programme, in a sea of youthful optimism and multilingual policy wonkery.
Showing posts with label Memo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Memo. Show all posts
Wednesday, 6 March 2019
Tuesday, 29 March 2016
Memo [Stock price and Dividend] 29-Mar-2016
Although there is difference between Stock and FX in CFD trading, I prefer to treat both underlyings in same ground.
First of all, let me list main difference between Stock and FX.
[Market opening hours]
Stock: Limited hours between MON and FRI
LSE: 8:00AM - 4:30PM (LDN time)
NYSE: 9:30AM - 4:30PM (NY time)
FX: Whole time between
SUN 10:00PM (UTC) and FRI 10:00PM (UTC) (except for world holidays)
[Source of income gain]
Stock: Dividend >= 0
(Treatment of dividend may be varied in CFD trading according to the brokers)
FX: Swap
(It could be profit or loss)
[Frequency of the income gain]
Stock: Annual, Semi-Annual or Quarterly in usual manner
FX: Daily
In terms of the value sensitivity, Source of income gain is a big difference. Once the value of dividend is withdrawn from the relevant stock, theoretically the stock price should fall according to the dividend. The market do not always behave theoretically, and the stock price is likely to fall beyond the dividend value due to speculation.
Put them in same ground
If you see the FX market, for example GBP/USD means GBP value against USD. In case that GBP/USD is going up, we have two assumptions, "GBP more valuable" or "USD less valuable".
On the other hand, in stock market, in case that FTSE100 is going up, it looks the portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable, or in case that DJA is going up, it looks the portfolio of DJA becomes more valuable. It maybe correct, but the fact to remind is that FTSE100 is quoted in GBP and DJA is quoted in USD respectively.
Now, we see them precisely as FTSE100/GBP and DJA/USD, and FTSE100 going up could mean "The portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable" or "GBP becomes less valuable".
This point of view makes sense for Japanese stock market trend in 2012 - 2013. In those time, JPY value had been down against major currencies and N225 index goes up in JPY. It implies the pure upside on N225 is actually less than the amount in JPY shows.
More things to be mentioned about it, but maybe next time.
First of all, let me list main difference between Stock and FX.
[Market opening hours]
Stock: Limited hours between MON and FRI
LSE: 8:00AM - 4:30PM (LDN time)
NYSE: 9:30AM - 4:30PM (NY time)
FX: Whole time between
SUN 10:00PM (UTC) and FRI 10:00PM (UTC) (except for world holidays)
[Source of income gain]
Stock: Dividend >= 0
(Treatment of dividend may be varied in CFD trading according to the brokers)
FX: Swap
(It could be profit or loss)
[Frequency of the income gain]
Stock: Annual, Semi-Annual or Quarterly in usual manner
FX: Daily
In terms of the value sensitivity, Source of income gain is a big difference. Once the value of dividend is withdrawn from the relevant stock, theoretically the stock price should fall according to the dividend. The market do not always behave theoretically, and the stock price is likely to fall beyond the dividend value due to speculation.
Put them in same ground
If you see the FX market, for example GBP/USD means GBP value against USD. In case that GBP/USD is going up, we have two assumptions, "GBP more valuable" or "USD less valuable".
On the other hand, in stock market, in case that FTSE100 is going up, it looks the portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable, or in case that DJA is going up, it looks the portfolio of DJA becomes more valuable. It maybe correct, but the fact to remind is that FTSE100 is quoted in GBP and DJA is quoted in USD respectively.
Now, we see them precisely as FTSE100/GBP and DJA/USD, and FTSE100 going up could mean "The portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable" or "GBP becomes less valuable".
This point of view makes sense for Japanese stock market trend in 2012 - 2013. In those time, JPY value had been down against major currencies and N225 index goes up in JPY. It implies the pure upside on N225 is actually less than the amount in JPY shows.
More things to be mentioned about it, but maybe next time.
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