FOREX FLYER: EURNZD

Since the tension escalated between US and North Korea, President Donald Trump warning "fire and fury", the financial market has been shaken and it driven investors into risk off.

Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen lifted in large scale, where EURJPY is around 128.56 which is near the lowest level in a month.

While EURJPY was down to a month low, EUR had hiked for some months against other major currencies.
Our Trend and Momentum indicates there are still rooms where EUR is adjusted into downward for such EURCAD, EURGBP and EURNZD.

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Friday, 23 January 2015

EURNZD trend & momentum 23-Jan-2015

EURNZD has been volatile up and down, ranging between 1.48 - 1.54, and it stays around 1.505 at the moment.

Quantitative Easing has been announced by ECB yesterday, and rest of political risk factor is Greek election in short term.
While EUR has been weaken against most of currencies remarkably after the QE announcement, NZD has not been relatively stronger than other currencies. Market consensus in New Zealand implies that NZ reserve bank is expected to cut interest rate in this year and the rate will be reviewed in next week. NZD has been weaken against other currencies, including EUR early this week.

Slower than expected inflation data earlier this week stoked speculation New Zealand's Reserve Bank may lower interest rates this year, and traders are pricing in 9 basis points of cuts over the coming 12 months, according to the Overnight Index Swap curve. Governor Graeme Wheeler will review the 3.5 percent official cash rate next week, and is expected to keep it on hold.

Ref. NZ dollar heads for 3.5% weekly drop as US economy shines

Technical side, trend and momentum in EURNZD indicates it is expected downward trend toward middle of next week. Although market consensus probably have taken into account Greek election on Sunday, Syriza leading, unexpected result or policy would bring volatility into the ma
rket. NZ reserve bank is expected not to cut interest rate in next week, despite their probably cutting in this year. If the rate is unexpectedly cut, NZD will be weaken and EURNZD will go up.

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Monday, 1 December 2014

EURNZD Trend & Momentum (Following) 1-Dec-2014

Last post EURNZD.

EURNZD currently staying around 1.581 after it has reached at 1.599 very earlier today. The box range trend is still to be expected below 1.600 and bottom could be 1.570 - 1.580.

However, fundamentals risk exist particularly in EUR due to the economic situation. Some market players analyze inflation in EUR for next year could be negative (deflation), and ECB announced they still have room to bring QE.
It seems down side risk at EUR is remaining and EURNZD could break its expected range if further concerns or down side information were revealed.

Ref)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/global-economy-weekahead-idUKKCN0JF27G20141201

Friday, 28 November 2014

EURNZD Trend & Momentum 28-Nov-2014

EURNZD had been on downward trend for earlier this month, and it has been up and down for the last 1 - 2 weeks.
The analyzed EURNZD in trend & momentum implies it could be boxed range around 1.57 - 1.60.
Eurozone is still struggling about economic growth, and uncertinty at additional QE can be turbulence on cross - EUR FX.

Friday, 18 July 2014

EURNZD Trend & Momentum 18-Jul-2014

EURNZD had gone down a week since 2 weeks ago, and it has been turned into upward trend after the decline.

The trend and momentum analysis of EURNZD detects turning point of the trend could be around the end of this week. It also shows the downward trend from early next week with frequent up and down momentum.

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