A.I. Range forecast for 30-Nov-2020 [Popular pairs against JPY]

A.I. Range forecasts of popular pairs against JPY until the end of Monday (UTC). For some whose last Trend and Momentum have been better fitted, their figures are also available below.

Japan is one of the biggest markets where FX trading is active among the private and corporate investors.

[AUDJPY]

Range forecast: 76.414 (-0.59%)  -  77.321 (+0.59%).

Confidence: 74.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURJPY]

Range forecast: 124.1 (-0.34%)  -  124.64 (+0.1%).
Confidence: 71.6%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[GBPJPY]

Range forecast: 138.12 (-0.31%)  -  138.6 (+0.04%).

Confidence: 73.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]

Range forecast: 103.59 (-0.49%)  -  104.26 (+0.15%).

Confidence: 69.9%.

The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

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A.I. Range forecast + Trend and Momentum for 18-Nov-2020 [EURJPY | GBPJPY]

Here are the forecasts for EURJPY and GBPJPY respectively as their Trend and Momentums are well fitted this time. The range forecast is for next 24 hours.

[EURJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 123.14 (-0.27%)  -  123.84 (+0.3%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 74.2%.
The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside.

[GBPJPY] To the QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 137.68 (-0.32%)  -  138.93 (+0.58%) , for next 24 hours.
Confidence: 75.6%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

European currencies [GBP, EUR and CHF] are surging against JPY in a coming week?

As the major stock indices in US, European and some Asia-Pacific markets have sharply tumbled this week, their monthly declines are marking the worst in the last several months respectively.

Japanese yen which is typically considered as a safe haven has gained for the time, and the Trend and Momentums indicate some European currencies could bounce back against JPY in a coming week.

GBPJPY Trend and Momentum

EURJPY Trend and Momentum

CHFJPY Trend and Momentum

The time is based on Universal time (UTC).

[A.I.'s review (GBPJPY)]

Range forecast: 134.51 (-0.52%)  -  135.93 (+0.53%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 74.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is still considerable by the end of next Monday morning. The swing risk will be neutralized after that time.

[A.I.'s review (EURJPY)]

Range forecast: 121.43 (-0.34%)  -  122.26 (+0.35%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 71.5%.

The chance of swing is little biased toward any directions by the end of next Monday morning. Then, the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Wednesday morning, and the swing risk will be neutralized.

[A.I.'s review (CHFJPY)]

Range forecast: 113.07 (-0.72%)  -  114.35 (+0.4%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 75.6%.

The chance of Upside swing is a little more likely than Downside by the end of next Monday morning. Then. the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Tuesday morning. 

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Brexit just made another market turbulence but see it in longer term

Brexit brought another turbulence into the financial market, GBP diving around 10% against JPY,  USD and massively down against other currencies.

This is absolutely massive scale, but is it so fresh? It is not. Nowadays, many people tend to forget something past so quickly as perhaps flood of information from the internet and media. Remembering just 1 year and a half ago, Swiss Franc (CHF) shot up around 15% against GBP, obviously whose scale is more than Brexit impact.

Lehman crisis had a clear message of credit market overestimated, and in fact that one biggest bank collapsed in public. So it is normal that people do not want Lehman's shares any more. 

Unlike insolvent, nothing will change from next Monday for British people's life drastically. To establish Brexit deal. it will take more than 2 years.

It is clear that British economy entered the unexplored zone meaning uncertainty. Detailed pros and cons are not on the main topic of referendum, but more or less driven by populism. Further research and publication make clear that economic effect at Brexit. Even a single sentence in EU constitute may clash GBP value.

It is understandable to sell GBP as its expected uncertainty, but why they buy JPY?  Looking at sovereign ratings or banking industry's ratings, there is no sign of strong-buy JPY. It had been traditionally always happened, but without economic reason, it is another sign of bended market.

As another trend, Gold price has started rising after years of downward trend.

By the way, keep eyes on Spanish election on Sunday

>> Brexit could influence Spanish election amid surge in support for hard-left party

Another monetary easing by BoJ? 23-Apr-2016

JPY has been weaken sharply on Friday, where GBPJPY was at around 156.8 at the opening and it closed at around 161.0.
Ahead of BoJ meeting on 27 - 28 next week, according to some local sources, the market consensus expect another monetary easing is possibly released by BoJ, and JPY has fallen as well as the stock index, Nikkei 225 going up. As already mentioned in this Forex Flyer, N225 is actually N225/JPY and N225 going up doesn't always mean the stock is becoming more valuable in particularly in such cases.
It could say this movement is speculation in the short horizon. After the BoJ meeting, if no further policy is introduced, the market can be reversed to strong JPY and the stock market plunged, but again, it would not mean the stock is less valuable.

Nowadays, more and more news are coming up day by day, and Newsensus allow you to read news in more time-efficient way.

British Pound remarkably low against major currencies 25-Feb-2016

Since the beginning of this month, GBP has sharply gone against major currencies such as USD, JPY, AUD or NZD though GBP peaked out in last Autumn of 2015.

Compared with the level at the end of 2015, GBPJPY got the sharpest decline more than 12.0% down, GBPUSD is following down at 6.0%, and even against AUD and NZD, GBP has gone down 5.0% and 3.6% respectively.

Due to the rate cut of AUD and NZD for a last few years, GBP and other currencies have been relatively stringer against AUD and NZD whose interest rates are more stable now than before.
However, even though their rates had been cut, the policy rate in

Australia is still 2.0% and it is 2.5% in New Zealand while the rate in England is only 0.50%. Also looking at the credit rating of sovereign debts of them, S&P rated AAA (stable) for Australia, AA (stable) for New Zealand and AAA (negative) for United Kingdom. Simply thinking, Australia has better credit rating and more interest rate, which of Australian or English debt do you want to invest?

We cannot miss out that global stock markets have been downward and volatile since the beginning of the year. The market shows

some symptoms of financial crisis, particularly strength of JPY and weakness of GBP. Remember Lehman crisis 2008, JPY had been the strongest currency in the market.
What happened in crisis probably happens now again, it is still a question from the view of investment because Japan has S&P rating only A+ (stable) and negative interest rate at -0.1%. Do you want to invest?

2015 was geopolitically unstable year, and 2016 will be economically and (geo)politically unstable due to the volatile market, US president election, Brexit, Spanish goverment, ...


Keep yourself to follow the global economy more efficiently, why not use Newsensus. Available on Google Play.

Bear market early next week? 24-Oct-2015

Two big economies on move to another monetary policy action. It has been revealed this week by Chinese central bank and European central bank.

Chinese central bank cut their interest rates which are one year benchmarks of lending and deposit rate respectively. Both rates are cut 25bp, where the lending rate is to 4.35% and the deposit rate is to 1.50%.

On the western side, ECB indicated new stimulus could be introduced around December, which implies further quantitative easing is expected. It also added the deposit rate could be cut into negative territory.

Market is likely to start doubting if US federal reserve increase US interest rate.

Stock market have been closed positively on Friday in major economic zones, such as DJA, FTSE100, Nikkei225, CAC40 or DAX Index.

Although the market have been bullish for the week, additional stimulus of rate cut and quantitative easing implies the economic recovery is still not enough.
Since Lehman crisis, record low rates and quantitative easing had been undertaken in the global economy. US had set zero rate and introduced QE until 2014. UK had managed their interest rate at record low level and undertaken QE until 2013.
While the global economy seems be still struggling, it is probably doubtful if continuous monetary easing recover the economy. Once market consensus start doubting it, they will become vulnerable to the risk.

By the way, the trend and momentum of GBPJPY indicates it is expected downward trend in a coming week. Currently, it stays around 186 and the signal indicates it could be down to 183 in the week. It is possible if the market turns to conservative.


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GBPJPY trend & momentum 29-Sep-2015

GBPJPY is nearly the lowest level since last May, currently staying around 181.50.

Financial market is volatile and chaotic today. Glencore, the stock price is nearly 70.00, and it recorded more than 300 about 4 months ago. One of Japanese shipping company is going to be under administration, due to extraordinary loss expected.

Downside of this crash is unpredictable, but the trend and momentum in GBPJPY is indicating the trend is reversed for a coming week against the downward trend in last 2 weeks.

If you have confidence to change this uncertainty to profit, Forex Signal by QROSS X will help your forex trading.

[England] Interest rate rise will not be derailed according to Bank of England governor 29-Aug-2015

Since Chinese stock market crashed this month, the global market have become bearish as risky asset sold sharply. This event brought the discussion if rate rise in US and UK is expected to be delayed. The market reacted as USD had been weaken against other currencies such as EUR or JPY until 24-Aug. GBP had been weaken in the same period as USD but it has not been recovered yet.

Today, Bank of England governor, Mark Carney said China’s financial woes will not derail plans to raise interest rates.

The Telegraph >> China's 'Black Monday' will not derail rate rises, says Mark Carney

Speaking at the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, Mark Carney acknowledged that the dramatic decline in Chinese stocks had sparked volatility in Western markets but claimed that it would not knock his economic plans off course.
“The direct exposure of the UK economy to China is relatively modest,” he told delegates. “Developments in China are unlikely to change the process of rate increases.”

This discussion was held after the Forex market closed on Friday, and it implies GBP will be stronger against other currencies at the market opening on Monday, though it is Bank holiday in England, by the way.

Trend & momentum for GBPJPY indicates it is expected upside in early next week. JPY has been stronger while the stock market was going down.

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GBPJPY trend & momentum 13-Feb-2015

GBPJPY has risen above 183.0 this week by strong sterling though JPY declined against most of currencies because oftthe announcement by Bank of Japan.

Mark Carney referred they are prepared to cut their interest rate, currently 0.5% , if inflation rate stays lower. However, GBP has been relatively stronger againt other currencies before and after the announcement. It could say the market implies the rate not being cut near future.

Although the long term trend is likely GBPJPY upward trend, the trend and momentum indicates chance of GBPJPY going down in short term for next week.

GBPJPY trend & momentum 23-Dec-2014

GBPJPY trend and momentum has indicated it starts going down slightly since earlier today, though the trend signal is still upward (flat) at the moment.

Currently, GBPJPY at around 186.55 has dropped for last a few hours. Traditionally, JPY is relatively stronger under risk-off market. If market players mitigate risk on their portfolio,  JPY could be stronger against other major currencies but rebound risk is also expected early new year.

GBPJPY Trend & Momentum 15-Dec-2014

GBPJPY had jumped in larger scale from the end of Nov to early Dec. It has gone down for the last week, and GBPJPY has reached the same level around the end of last month. The range for last two weeks was around 185 - 189, which is relatively wide range.

The election has been held in Japan, and it resulted as market expected. Basically liberal-democratic party winning should work for JPY down, however the result was widely expected in the market already. JPY is stronger against major currencies, such as USD, GBP or EUR after FX market opened this week.

Trend and momentum of GBPJPY indicates it could be going up in this week. On the other hand, uncertainty in JPY has been mitigated as the election ended as expected, and the upside could be limited because the election result has been already taken into account.


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