Today's Italian referendum is to decide if power of the senate house is being limited whereas they currently have equal power to the lower house.
In current system, it topically takes longer time to make a decision and enforce a new rule because the both houses have to agree with the new rule. The proposed system helps the government to reform Italian troubled banking industry for short term, while political risk remains for longer perspective, centralizing political power into fewer parties.
Choosing from Yes/No question in the referendum, Italy will face difficult situation whichever the result comes out. Simply, what is likely to happen?
(Yes to change)
Reform of the banking industry will be carried out, and market concerns are mitigated for short term.and EUR is likely stronger. The risk at political centralization would be negative but it is for a long term.
(No to change)
It is expected to take longer time to reform of the banking industry where they are suffering from bad performing loans. The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, would leave while the populist party Five Star Movement is earning more supports. It could lead to another uncertainty about populism movement in Europe, following such UK, France, Spain and Netherlands.
If the concerns at Italian banks and European politics intense, EUR will be bearish after the referendum.
Austrian presidential vote result will support positiveness in EUR at the market opening.
