This year, Japanese people have the longest consecutive national holidays for 10 days, and it started today. Tokyo market will have been closed for next week and on Monday in another week after the next. While Japanese stock market is closed, Forex market is opened in the world and the price naturally moves in Japanese
Golden week.
As many investors who look at Japanese market know, N225 and USDJPY are positively correlated though the correlation has been relatively lower than before. Still, compared with other markets, for example FTSE100 vs GBPUSD, CAC40 vs EURUSD or DAX vs EURUSD, the two indexes of
N225 and USDJPY have always
positive correlations for a reasonable time frame (e.g. 1 year).
The point of this Japan's holiday season is how N225 moves on the first business day after the Golden week, 7-May-2019. Let's have a look at the historical correlation between N225 vs USDJPY, whose correlation period is 250 points for each.
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| [USDJPY and N225 for last 5 years] |
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| [250 days Correlation USDJPY vs N225] |
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The current correlation (250D) is at around 40%. Whatever this number is considered, it could
anticipate N225 after the holidays follows the direction of USDJPY for next week.
USDJPY's latest closing is at around 111.60. Japanese investors would hope the market not to be volatile drastically...
The one side correlation seems be particular in Japanese market, and it is not for some other markets. In European markets, the stock indexes and exchange rates are correlated actually, but the correlation moves in positive as well as negative territories.
Look at other examples in European markets, the below figures describe the correlation between FTSE100 vs GBPUSD.
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| [GBPUSD and FTSE100 for last 5 years] |
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| [250 days Correlation GBPUSD vs FTSE100] |
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And the correlation between CAC40 vs EURUSD and DAX vs EURUSD. (Correlation figure only)
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| [250 days Correlation EURUSD vs CAC40 and DAX respectively] |
Their latest correlations are positive, but the numbers are varied from time to time more than Japanese market. However, Europeans do not have such
Golden week anyway...
