Swiss Franc could surge in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 26-Nov-2019

Looking at the latest trend and momentums of EURCHF and USDCHF, they are expected to be into downward trend which means Swiss Franc will be relatively stronger against both Euro and US Dollar.

EURCHF Trend and Momentum

USDCHF Trend and Momentum

On this Wednesday, ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) will publish their survey expectations which consist of business conditions, employment conditions and the other factors in Switzerland. (ZEW Survey - Expectations)

If the actual figure beat the market consensus or expectation, it would be positive for Swiss Franc, which could lead the currency more bullish Of course, in case the figure disappointing the market, Swiss Franc can be into bearish trend. The point is that ZEW publication on Wednesday is a remarkable one which could affect Swiss Franc fundamentally.

Regarding US Dollar, much more economic events are on ahead in coming days. (See the economic calendar on QROSS X). Perhaps, USDCHF can be more volatile than EURCHF in a coming week.


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Canadian Dollar trend reversed shortly even though BoC turned to be dovish stance? 2-Nov-2019

Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened against major currencies including GBP and EUR in the last week. Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 1.75% while they turned dovish, concerning about global trade conflict.

Reuters: Canadian dollar hits two-week low as Bank of Canada takes dovish turn
Canada’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.75% as expected but left the door open to a possible cut over the coming months to help the economy weather the damaging effects of global trade conflicts.

“The loonie has sold off post-statement due to the fact that the BoC is beginning to witness the effects of external headwinds on the Canadian economy,” said Simon Harvey, FX market analyst for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

The central bank’s “dovish stance” raises expectations for policy easing, “especially if the economic data and external climate deteriorates further,” Harvey said.

Money markets moved to fully price in a rate cut as early as July. Before the announcement, chances of a cut next year were seen at less than 50%. BOCWATCH

It seems that expectations of the rate cuts next year is taken into account in the price, and BoC still kept 'Neutral' stance on the rates. Natural bounce back can be expected shortly against the overheated mood in FX market. (Of course, there is a possibility BoC may withdraw neutral stance, changing to pessimistic as their concerns in the future.)

BNN Bloomberg: Bank of Canada holds rates, warns economy will be 'tested'
The statement and the fresh batch of more pessimistic growth forecasts will raise questions about the central bank’s commitment to a neutral stance on rates, particularly in the face of global easing in many other countries that has made the Bank of Canada an outlier. If the Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates later today, as expected, the Bank of Canada would have the highest policy rate in the industrialized world.

In the meantime, our trend and momentum signals indicate CAD surging against GBP and EUR in a coming week.

GBPCAD Trend and Momentum

EURCAD Trend and Momentum

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