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Friday 3 January 2020

FX Volatility bounce back in 2020?

In 2019, FX traders probably wondered the volatility had diminished in pairs of the major currencies though GBP occasionally got bumpy ride because of the Brexit uncertainty.

[CBOE/CME] EUVIX
The volatility of EURUSD has been approaching to the lowest level at remarkable points. According to "FT: Traders twiddle thumbs as volatility fades in currency markets", EURUSD 1 month implied volatility is around the lowest in last two decades. The volatility marked around the lowest level (below 5.00%) in 2007 and 2014, and it now stays near that level.
In the mean time, central banks show little clue about when they are likely to tighten the monetary policies in a coming months or years. The traders cannot effectively use the monetary policy changes as trading opportunities in such market.
Even though few indications of tightening the monetary policy, the volatility is having less room to decline further, which has already reached the lowest in two decades.
Apart from the monetary policy, we are facing geopolitical events which are expected to significantly affect the financial markets, such as US presidential election, Brexit negotiation between UK and EU27 and US-Iran tension which arose very recently.
Whether it is anticipated or not, the market was quiet in 2019. Now in 2020, we will see if it was Calm before the Storm.

[Added on 21-Nov-2020]
Since EUVIX bottomed out early 2020, it peaked in March as financial markets were fluctuated by fear of spreading Covid-19. EUVIX is down from the peak but stays well over the bottom of early 2020.
EUVIX 18-Nov-2020