Global stock markets plunged for the last two consecutive days. While the scale was relatively smaller than yesterday in Asian & Pacific and European markets, US major stock indices have gone down as much as yesterday. DJIA lost about 1,900 points in just two days.
Japanese and Russian markets opened today for the first time in this week because of their bank holiday, and the impact was well priced in for the last Monday when the other markets plummeted. For example,
Nikkei 225 >> -3.3%.
RTS index >> -5.1%.
Kospi index >> +1.2%.
S&P/ASX 200 >> -1.6%
There is another market being back from the national holidays, Brazilian stock market opening ahead. Tomorrow (Wednesday) is a key for the market opening. While Asian & Pacific markets were relatively mild on Tuesday, US market was devastated again and it could trigger further crash in Asian & Pacific market on Wednesday.(Nikkei 225 future digged 2.4% by last closing.) Then, European markets could follow the negative sentiment as the Covid-19 recently brought anxious mood into Italy and Europe. Unless breakthrough for the corona virus is indicated, the global markets are unlikely to turn optimistic in coming days.
On Thursday when Brazilian stock market finally opens, it is inevitable to face massive loss and it could overshoot like downward spiral as it is the first opening since last week. The scale depends on how the other markets move next 1 or 2 days, but it can go down by 10%.
Tuesday 25 February 2020
Monday 24 February 2020
Japanese and Russian stock markets opening just after the bank holiday 24-Feb-2020
Global stock market plummeted on this Monday as Coronavirus (Covid 19) outbreak severely hit South Korea and Italy over the last weekend. One of the big Asian markets, Japan had a bank holiday this Monday and it is opening in a few hours from this time since the other market dived into the bloodbath. Japan is also facing uncertainty of Coronavirus spreading as increasing number of patients even excluding ones from Diamond Princess. Russia had a bank holiday on this Monday, too.
In the mean time, Japanese index Nikkei 225 futures market has gone down around 4.7%, and the index's opening price is also expected down near by the same level after the fair value adjustment.
Along with the Japanese market, other Asian and Pacific markets are also opening in the near time zone. If the other markets were bouncing back from the last miserable closing, the potential damage on Japanese market could be limited. This Monday, Australia's ASX 200 index has gone down by 2.25% but its future market does not indicate clear relief yet. US market was also bearish, which was the worst in 2 years. Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 1,000 points equivalent to nearly 3.6%.
Sometimes, good news are suddenly coming in, but Asian and Pacific markets could not be optimistic yet, particularly Japanese market.
Here is the list of global stock indexes.
In the mean time, Japanese index Nikkei 225 futures market has gone down around 4.7%, and the index's opening price is also expected down near by the same level after the fair value adjustment.
Along with the Japanese market, other Asian and Pacific markets are also opening in the near time zone. If the other markets were bouncing back from the last miserable closing, the potential damage on Japanese market could be limited. This Monday, Australia's ASX 200 index has gone down by 2.25% but its future market does not indicate clear relief yet. US market was also bearish, which was the worst in 2 years. Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 1,000 points equivalent to nearly 3.6%.
Sometimes, good news are suddenly coming in, but Asian and Pacific markets could not be optimistic yet, particularly Japanese market.
Here is the list of global stock indexes.
[Asia & Pacific]
[Europe / Middle East]
(France) CAC 40
(Germany) DAX
(Italy) FTSE MIB
(Norway) OSLOStock Exchange All Index
(Russia) RTSI Index
(Sweden) OMX Stockholm 30
(Switzerland) Swiss Market Index
(UAE) Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index
(Switzerland) Swiss Market Index
(UAE) Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index
[Africa]
[North/South America]
Monday 17 February 2020
How hard to reach the trade agreement between UK and EU?
At the end of last January, UK finally relinquished the EU membership in term. British MEPs, including Mr.Farage seen one of the most prominent Brexiter, have left Brussels.
Although it just started the transition period and people's activities are not practically changed until the period, it is likely the end of "Endless" talks between UK and EU about Brexit. Now, British government whose cabinet ministers were shuffled last week has to negotiate the trade deal with European Commission. The end of the transition period is set on the end of 2020 unless it is agreed to extend the period between UK and EU while Mr.Johnson does not want to do.
Even if UK (and EU) expect to reach the agreement, how it is realistic to reach a decent deal in a year? Due to the tight deadline, both sides tend to prioritize the negotiation issue on top. But the free trade agreements between EU and other large economies took much more time to be finalized, which also requires ratification. Here are some examples.
[EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement]
The negotiation had started since 2013,
Reached at the agreement on July-2018,
Ratified on December-2018,
Has been effective since 1-February-2019.
About 6 years to the enforcement.
[EU-Singapore FTA]
The negotiation had started since 2010,
Reached at the agreement on October-2018,
EU member states endorsed on November-2019,
Has been effective since 21-November-2019.
About 9 years to the enforcement.
[CETA, EU-Canada Economic and Trade Agreement]
The negotiation had started since ?,
The negotiation ended on August-2014,
The agreement was signed on October-2016,
Has been effective since 21-September-2017.
More than 3 years + the negotiation period, to the enforcement.
Abolishing the relationship when UK was a member state of EU and building the trade agreement from scratch, one year sounds too short to enforce the agreed deal. It implies No-deal Brexit is inevitable rather than it as the worst option. In case of No-deal Brexit, WTO rules will be basically applied to the trades between EU and UK, which is likely to happen.
The market seemed not pricing in No-deal Brexit, but as soon as UK legally rejects any extensions of the trade talk, the market will pessimistically react.
[Updated on 16-Oct-2020]
EU and Australia started their trade negotiation in May 2018, and it seems the agreement has not been made by now since the negotiation is kicked off. It looks unrealistic for UK to reach a full agreement with EU by the end of 2020.
Although it just started the transition period and people's activities are not practically changed until the period, it is likely the end of "Endless" talks between UK and EU about Brexit. Now, British government whose cabinet ministers were shuffled last week has to negotiate the trade deal with European Commission. The end of the transition period is set on the end of 2020 unless it is agreed to extend the period between UK and EU while Mr.Johnson does not want to do.
Even if UK (and EU) expect to reach the agreement, how it is realistic to reach a decent deal in a year? Due to the tight deadline, both sides tend to prioritize the negotiation issue on top. But the free trade agreements between EU and other large economies took much more time to be finalized, which also requires ratification. Here are some examples.
[EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement]
The negotiation had started since 2013,
Reached at the agreement on July-2018,
Ratified on December-2018,
Has been effective since 1-February-2019.
About 6 years to the enforcement.
[EU-Singapore FTA]
The negotiation had started since 2010,
Reached at the agreement on October-2018,
EU member states endorsed on November-2019,
Has been effective since 21-November-2019.
About 9 years to the enforcement.
[CETA, EU-Canada Economic and Trade Agreement]
The negotiation had started since ?,
The negotiation ended on August-2014,
The agreement was signed on October-2016,
Has been effective since 21-September-2017.
More than 3 years + the negotiation period, to the enforcement.
Abolishing the relationship when UK was a member state of EU and building the trade agreement from scratch, one year sounds too short to enforce the agreed deal. It implies No-deal Brexit is inevitable rather than it as the worst option. In case of No-deal Brexit, WTO rules will be basically applied to the trades between EU and UK, which is likely to happen.
The market seemed not pricing in No-deal Brexit, but as soon as UK legally rejects any extensions of the trade talk, the market will pessimistically react.
[Updated on 16-Oct-2020]
UK PM mentioned Britons should get ready for no-deal Brexit today as it is still unclear to reach an agreement so-called Canada-style deal. He would seek an alternative like Australia-style deal.
The Guardian: Boris Johnson tells UK: prepare for a no-deal Brexit
“A lot of progress has been made on such issues as social security and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and son on,” he said, but “for whatever reason, it’s clear from the [EU] summit that after 45 years of [UK] membership they are not willing, unless there’s some fundamental change of approach, to offer this country the same terms as Canada”.
He said that given there were only 10 weeks left until the transition period ended, he had to make a judgment about the likely outcome and to prepare the country.
“I concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s – based on simple principles of global free trade,” he told reporters in a pooled broadcast statement.
EU and Australia started their trade negotiation in May 2018, and it seems the agreement has not been made by now since the negotiation is kicked off. It looks unrealistic for UK to reach a full agreement with EU by the end of 2020.
Ref.
EU-Japan trade agreement on track to enter into force in February 2019
The EU-Singapore agreements explained
Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
CETA – The European-Canadian Economic and Trade Agreement
Australia - Trade - European Commission
EU-Japan trade agreement on track to enter into force in February 2019
The EU-Singapore agreements explained
Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
CETA – The European-Canadian Economic and Trade Agreement
Australia - Trade - European Commission
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