European currencies [GBP, EUR and CHF] are surging against JPY in a coming week?

As the major stock indices in US, European and some Asia-Pacific markets have sharply tumbled this week, their monthly declines are marking the worst in the last several months respectively.

Japanese yen which is typically considered as a safe haven has gained for the time, and the Trend and Momentums indicate some European currencies could bounce back against JPY in a coming week.

GBPJPY Trend and Momentum

EURJPY Trend and Momentum

CHFJPY Trend and Momentum

The time is based on Universal time (UTC).

[A.I.'s review (GBPJPY)]

Range forecast: 134.51 (-0.52%)  -  135.93 (+0.53%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 74.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is still considerable by the end of next Monday morning. The swing risk will be neutralized after that time.

[A.I.'s review (EURJPY)]

Range forecast: 121.43 (-0.34%)  -  122.26 (+0.35%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 71.5%.

The chance of swing is little biased toward any directions by the end of next Monday morning. Then, the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Wednesday morning, and the swing risk will be neutralized.

[A.I.'s review (CHFJPY)]

Range forecast: 113.07 (-0.72%)  -  114.35 (+0.4%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 75.6%.

The chance of Upside swing is a little more likely than Downside by the end of next Monday morning. Then. the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Tuesday morning. 

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EURJPY jumped since the beginning of this week. Is the trend being neutralized? 20-Oct-2020

EURJPY has surged since the market opening on Monday, which currently stays around 124.59. Reviewed our forecast as of last Friday, it could say that the realized trend has been consistent with the forecast.

Today's Trend and Momentum indicates there is still a room of EURJPY going up while the A.I.'s review tells that the trend will be more neutralized.

[A.I.'s review]

Range forecast: 124.23 (-0.31%)  -  125.08 (+0.37%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 73.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside in next 24 hours. It will turn slightly Upside by this Friday's morning.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

EURJPY surging in next week? Trend and Momentum + A.I.'s review 16-Oct-2020

 As the trend and momentum of EURJPY well fitted, it indicates EURJPY is expected to surge in next week.

[A.I.'s review]

Our A.I. forecasts a short term range as below:

Range forecast: 123.08 (-0.19%)  -  123.75 (+0.35%) , until 10:15, Mon 19 Oct 2020 (UTC).

Confidence: 77.8%.

It also tells swing risk is neutral for both directions by the end of today. The chance of upside swing is more considerable from next Monday to Tuesday. Then, the risk will be observed as neutral.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Australian Dollar surging in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 4-Sep-2020

The stock markets have well surged since last April despite Covid-19 having devastated in the world. It is most likely because of the excessive liquidity brought by central banks in major economies. Even though DJIA down more than 800 points yesterday, it is too soon to conclude the upward trend is over.

Back to the topic, the latest Trend and Momentum indicate Australian dollar could surge in a coming week after reaching the bottom. If you want to see the Trend and Momentums for other FX pairs, visit: QROSS X - Trend and Momentums.

AUDCAD Trend and Momentum

AUDJPY Trend and Momentum

AUDUSD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Coronavirus outbreak was just an excuse and the worse will be coming to the market?

Vito Corleone (From Wikipedia)
The son of Antonio Andolini.

Don Ciccio had killed Antonio Andolini, and the Don was revenged by Antonio's son. At least, Don Ciccio was right about his future.

Don Ciccio:

...When he grows, he'll grow strong.  ...When he's a man, he'll come for revenge.

As written on the last post, the oil price digged further its bottom at which WTI crude oil contract for May reached in negative territory. Theoretically, the possibility of negative price is anticipated because of the shortage of oil storage. But I thought OPEC+ or US will prevent from the situation being worse.
Some says that hedge funds or speculators sold their holding contracts as the uncertainty of storage availability and its costs ahead.

The Irish Times: What do negative oil prices mean for the prices you pay at the pump?
... The reasons for this are complicated, but essentially for every barrel of oil consumed in the world, 30 are traded. This means that financial institutions and hedge funds are speculating now on the price of oil that will be delivered in May. Contracts for May had to be settled by April 21st, and with a raft of traders left with oil contracts on their hands in the face of extremely low demand, they were forced to offload their contracts at negative prices.

DJIA recovered since the end of March.

While the oil markets tumbled, the global stock markets have recovered since the end of last month. DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has recovered about 5,000 points (27.0%) though it is still over 6,000 lower than the record high.
Some big economies, including US and Germany, are trying to reopen their businesses as they have been suffering from the lockdown for a month. It maybe a positive sign for the market but the things are not so simple either.

What was the outlook of the financial markets before Coronavirus outbreak? The major stock indices were climbing to the historic high in recent years to decades. No one was thinking the Tokyo Olympic game would be postponed except for some conspiracy theorists.
But on the other hand, PMI numbers in the largest economies have already been in lower territory in which the outlooks were negative. German manufacturing PMI has been well below 50.0 since the beginning of 2019, and the numbers in Eurozone and Japan have been more or less similar to German one, too. UK has been struggling to get Brexit done for 2019 (since 2016). US economy has been relatively stronger than others while its PMI was also in downward trend.
While the stock markets were bullish, the real economies had started slow down even before Coronavirus outbreak. PMI is utilized as a leading indicator to forecast the economic confidence in coming months. As the PMI numbers were below 50.0 in 2019, the recent market crash could have some senses of the adjustment between the market and real economy. Coronavirus just triggered it, perhaps.
By the way, how about today's PMIs? In Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is 33.6 as of Apr-2020, the lowest since the financial crisis 2008. The composite PMI, overview of service and manufacturing sectors, is overwhelmingly 13.5, the record low.
Reminding it is a leading indicator, the economy is expected to be worse in coming months as the impact of lockdown will be realized in our economies. When it did, we would see something worse in the financial market than the last one in 2008.

When the bubble grows, the bursting impact will grow stronger. When the time comes, it devastates the market and economy.

Where is the bottom of oil price? This uncertainty could be for months to years.

From Wikipedia

Dominic Greene:

Since 1945, 17% of the planet's vegetated surface has been irreversibly degraded. The Tierra Project is just one small part of a global network of Eco Parks that Greene Planet has created to rejuvenate a world on the verge of collapse.

The crude oil price has plunged as Coronavirus outbreak halted numerous businesses which consume the oils, and OPEC+ failed to agree on cutting oil production last month. Although the latest headline brought some hope as Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach deal, there is still a room that the price is going down further until business is back to normal.

WTI Crude oil price
The lowest roughly in two decades.

According to World Oil: Trump may rent Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage to U.S. drillers,
The U.S. reserve, which was set up after the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, has a maximum storage capacity of about 713.5 million barrels in salt caverns across the U.S. Gulf Coast. It now contains about 635 million barrels. The string of coastal salt caverns in Louisiana and Texas that comprise the reserve were designed for long-term storage and are not geologically suited for quick withdrawal of crude. For that reason, some industry observes have criticized the idea as ill-advised.

The considerations to make space in the reserve available come after congressional Democrats blocked a request by the administration to appropriate $3 billion in funds to buy as much as 77 million barrels of oil for its emergency stockpile in an effort by President Donald Trump to support the domestic industry and boost reserves at cheap prices.

It says almost 90% of storage capacity for the oil reserve is already filled up, which means the rest of capacity, only 10% can be available for the further reserve. Whoever US or US drillers will purchase the oil for strategic reserve, it cannot be kept without storage space. It is not clear that the oil companies can slash their output quickly. When the oil could go nowhere but consumption, the price would be down further.

Euro area's composite PMI
Hardly seen it less than 30...

According to the Coronavirus projection of United States as of 3-Apr-2020, it suggests number of new death cases can reach at the peak around middle of this April and the number will be zero near the beginning of August. It sounds some sense of relief during such gloomy days under lockdown. But there is another risk ahead as second wave of the virus can devastate again as China is facing.

The latest PMI, GDP forecast or any statistics indicate the worst outlook which is comparable with the last financial crisis in 2008 or even the great depression in 1929.

CITY A.M.: Coronavirus: Eurozone economy suffers record hit in March
The Eurozone economy suffered the biggest blow on record in March, survey data has shown, as coronavirus containment efforts all but stopped activity.

The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a closely watched gauge of the health of the euro area economy – crashed to 29.7 in March from 51.6 in February. A score below 50 indicates contraction.

It is still unclear if the current draconian measures enforced in leading countries of global economy are lifted soon. Actually, it is unlikely as risk of the second wave does not allow them to do so. The lockdown will continue, and people's activities will be strictly limited for months to years. Who wants to burn a lot of oil those time?

What can rejuvenate a world on the verge of collapse?

Coronavirus blasting all the goddamn markets

The Underboss (from Wikipedia)

The Godfather's son was so temper as he killed himself consequently.

Sonny Corleone:

... So why don't he just blast whoever's in the goddamn car?

Since the later last month, the global stock markets overwhelmingly plunged as if we are at verge of a new great recession or so. US's DJIA had the record drop yesterday at nearly 3,000 points. The commodity markets were also down.

While Fed finally set their target rate at around zero, the market reaction was pessimistic. First, the financial policy cannot be a breakthrough against the epidemic. Second, the investors woke up, recognizing how serious of the economic damage. Third, the stock markets were overvalued (Bubble) until Coronavirus outbreak.

Coronavirus brought anxious tension among people in the world where no one is virtually away from the threat of Coronavirus. Once it started spreading into the countries outside of China, the economic and social activities have gradually shrunk. Many events were banned. Bars or nightclubs were closed. Tougher boarder controls. Details of such rules are different between countries, but it continues for a month to a few months at least.

As mentioned in the last post, the airline operators are highly likely at risk because of non essential travel bans. The measure has escalated since then.

BBC: Coronavirus: Europe plans full border closure in virus battle
The European Commission is planning to ban all non-essential travel throughout Europe's Schengen free-travel zone as more countries close their borders to try to limit the spread of coronavirus.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would ask leaders to implement the measures on Tuesday.

"The less travel, the more we can contain the virus," she said.

FTSE 100
Financial crisis (2007 - 08), down 40% from peak

People are cashing out rather than holding shares, and some goes for panic buying. Even if shelfs in supermarkets become empty, you will see new stocks arrived there next day as far as supply chain works and production of goods continues. In other words, if the supply chain or production were limited or halted as the tougher measure, it could be disastrous. People rush to buy limited stock of foods, hygiene sprays or toilet rolls. Hyperinflation or stagflation could be possible in such situation.

FTSE 100
Last 2 years, down 33% from peak.
Another 10% brings larger dip than financial crisis 2007-08

When it comes to the financial markets, FTSE 100 was at 6,580 on 1-Mar and now marked at 5,217, about 33% down from the peak in last 2 years. During the last financial crisis in 2007-08, FTSE 100 was down by 40% from the peak. Today's market, the index has dropped 33% from the peak in less than a month. It looks just a matter of time until the latest crisis surpasses the one in 2007-08.


In the future when the world finally defeat the Coronavirus threat, financial markets and people's activities would be back in normal manners. But by that time, all the goddamn markets might be blasted in unprecedented scale.