Why the internal market bill is controversial in Brexit-deal?

The last September, UK politics reopened arguments about the Brexit-deal by introducing an internal market bill which could potentially breach the international law. It was a bit sensational as former PMs, including David Cameron and Theresa May joined to condemn the bill.

BBC news: Fifth ex-PM speaks out against post-Brexit bill

David Cameron has become the fifth former prime minister to criticise a new bill attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

No 10 says the Internal Market Bill was a "critical piece of legislation for the UK".

But Mr Cameron said he had "misgivings" over it and breaking an international treaty should be the "final resort".

Former Tory PMs Theresa May and Sir John Major, and Labour's Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have condemned the plan. 

Since then, most of the critics focused on the government's attempting to override the Brexit withdrawal deal and a possibility of breaching the international law. But it seems little is said about how the controversial bill could fail to abide the law.

It is a little patchy information below but it is basically about the Northern Ireland Protocol preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic.

BBC news: Brexit: Ministers plan laws overriding part of withdrawal deal

Meanwhile, the government will publish its Internal Market Bill - designed to protect trade arrangements between the four parts of the UK - on Wednesday.

This could contradict the Northern Ireland Protocol, set up to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, which many fear could be detrimental to peace.

The protocol says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules - meaning customs declarations for goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain, as well as some new checks on goods going from Great Britain into Northern Ireland - after the transition period.

The Financial Times said the bill would "eliminate" the legal force of the Withdrawal Agreement, struck less than a year ago between the UK and EU, in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

On the other hand, what the new bill rules:

BBC news: What is the row over UK 'internal markets' all about?

Right now, the UK is part of the European single market, with jointly agreed regulations and standards right across the continent.

Post-Brexit, the UK government wants to continue to have a joint market across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - the "internal market".

But instead of the rules and regulations around things like food and air quality and animal welfare being set in Brussels, now they have to be set closer to home - and there is a row over who should have the final say.

Many powers are set to be directly controlled by the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish administrations, in fields including food labelling, energy efficiency and support for farmers.

However, the UK government has said the devolved administrations will still have to accept goods and services from all other parts of the UK - even if they have set different standards locally. 

The latter implies that Northern Ireland will have to accept some goods and services from the other administrations of UK regardless of the different quality standards on goods and services. The former says Northern Ireland will follow some EU customs rules so as to prevent the hard border between them and Irish Republic. Those lead to a conclusion that the argument arises because Northern Ireland will have to accept the goods and services from the other parts of UK, which do not complying with EU custom rules to be applied. Having sorted out so far, this is a substance of the argument about the internal market bill.

A.I. Range forecast for 2-Nov-2020 [AUDJPY | EURGBP | EURUSD | USDJPY]

The range forecast until the end of next Monday for some major FXs. The time-line is based on UTC.

[AUDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 73.032 (-0.62%)  -  73.664 (+0.24%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 74.1%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[EURGBP]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 0.89689 (-0.29%)  -  0.90848 (+1%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 78.1%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable.

[EURUSD]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 1.1625 (-0.18%)  -  1.1668 (+0.19%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 68.3%.
The chance of Downside swing is more considerable.

[USDJPY]  To QROSS X Trend and Momentum

Range forecast: 104.26 (-0.34%)  -  104.75 (+0.13%) by the end of next Monday.
Confidence: 67.8%.
The chance of Upside swing is more considerable while the expected margin will be limited.

It is possible that the Trend and Momentum indicate the different direction against the A.I.'s review.

As many are aware, the US presidential election is being held on 3-Nov in US time. Financial markets, including FX, are possibly impacted according to the outcome. It must be kept in mind.

Regarding Brexit, the internal market bill is being scrutinized and voted in the House of Lords on 9-Nov. Since the bill includes some controversial clauses, there is a certain possibility the Peers could block the bill. It is 2 months to go until the transition period is over.

European currencies [GBP, EUR and CHF] are surging against JPY in a coming week?

As the major stock indices in US, European and some Asia-Pacific markets have sharply tumbled this week, their monthly declines are marking the worst in the last several months respectively.

Japanese yen which is typically considered as a safe haven has gained for the time, and the Trend and Momentums indicate some European currencies could bounce back against JPY in a coming week.

GBPJPY Trend and Momentum

EURJPY Trend and Momentum

CHFJPY Trend and Momentum

The time is based on Universal time (UTC).

[A.I.'s review (GBPJPY)]

Range forecast: 134.51 (-0.52%)  -  135.93 (+0.53%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 74.7%.

The chance of Downside swing is still considerable by the end of next Monday morning. The swing risk will be neutralized after that time.

[A.I.'s review (EURJPY)]

Range forecast: 121.43 (-0.34%)  -  122.26 (+0.35%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 71.5%.

The chance of swing is little biased toward any directions by the end of next Monday morning. Then, the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Wednesday morning, and the swing risk will be neutralized.

[A.I.'s review (CHFJPY)]

Range forecast: 113.07 (-0.72%)  -  114.35 (+0.4%) until the end of next Monday morning.

Confidence: 75.6%.

The chance of Upside swing is a little more likely than Downside by the end of next Monday morning. Then. the Upside swing is more considerable by the end of next Tuesday morning. 

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

EURJPY jumped since the beginning of this week. Is the trend being neutralized? 20-Oct-2020

EURJPY has surged since the market opening on Monday, which currently stays around 124.59. Reviewed our forecast as of last Friday, it could say that the realized trend has been consistent with the forecast.

Today's Trend and Momentum indicates there is still a room of EURJPY going up while the A.I.'s review tells that the trend will be more neutralized.

[A.I.'s review]

Range forecast: 124.23 (-0.31%)  -  125.08 (+0.37%) , for next 24 hours.

Confidence: 73.6%.

The chance of Downside swing is a little more likely than Upside in next 24 hours. It will turn slightly Upside by this Friday's morning.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

EURJPY surging in next week? Trend and Momentum + A.I.'s review 16-Oct-2020

 As the trend and momentum of EURJPY well fitted, it indicates EURJPY is expected to surge in next week.

[A.I.'s review]

Our A.I. forecasts a short term range as below:

Range forecast: 123.08 (-0.19%)  -  123.75 (+0.35%) , until 10:15, Mon 19 Oct 2020 (UTC).

Confidence: 77.8%.

It also tells swing risk is neutral for both directions by the end of today. The chance of upside swing is more considerable from next Monday to Tuesday. Then, the risk will be observed as neutral.

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Australian Dollar surging in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 4-Sep-2020

The stock markets have well surged since last April despite Covid-19 having devastated in the world. It is most likely because of the excessive liquidity brought by central banks in major economies. Even though DJIA down more than 800 points yesterday, it is too soon to conclude the upward trend is over.

Back to the topic, the latest Trend and Momentum indicate Australian dollar could surge in a coming week after reaching the bottom. If you want to see the Trend and Momentums for other FX pairs, visit: QROSS X - Trend and Momentums.

AUDCAD Trend and Momentum

AUDJPY Trend and Momentum

AUDUSD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals on your Android devices, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Coronavirus outbreak was just an excuse and the worse will be coming to the market?

Vito Corleone (From Wikipedia)
The son of Antonio Andolini.

Don Ciccio had killed Antonio Andolini, and the Don was revenged by Antonio's son. At least, Don Ciccio was right about his future.

Don Ciccio:

...When he grows, he'll grow strong.  ...When he's a man, he'll come for revenge.

As written on the last post, the oil price digged further its bottom at which WTI crude oil contract for May reached in negative territory. Theoretically, the possibility of negative price is anticipated because of the shortage of oil storage. But I thought OPEC+ or US will prevent from the situation being worse.
Some says that hedge funds or speculators sold their holding contracts as the uncertainty of storage availability and its costs ahead.

The Irish Times: What do negative oil prices mean for the prices you pay at the pump?
... The reasons for this are complicated, but essentially for every barrel of oil consumed in the world, 30 are traded. This means that financial institutions and hedge funds are speculating now on the price of oil that will be delivered in May. Contracts for May had to be settled by April 21st, and with a raft of traders left with oil contracts on their hands in the face of extremely low demand, they were forced to offload their contracts at negative prices.

DJIA recovered since the end of March.

While the oil markets tumbled, the global stock markets have recovered since the end of last month. DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has recovered about 5,000 points (27.0%) though it is still over 6,000 lower than the record high.
Some big economies, including US and Germany, are trying to reopen their businesses as they have been suffering from the lockdown for a month. It maybe a positive sign for the market but the things are not so simple either.

What was the outlook of the financial markets before Coronavirus outbreak? The major stock indices were climbing to the historic high in recent years to decades. No one was thinking the Tokyo Olympic game would be postponed except for some conspiracy theorists.
But on the other hand, PMI numbers in the largest economies have already been in lower territory in which the outlooks were negative. German manufacturing PMI has been well below 50.0 since the beginning of 2019, and the numbers in Eurozone and Japan have been more or less similar to German one, too. UK has been struggling to get Brexit done for 2019 (since 2016). US economy has been relatively stronger than others while its PMI was also in downward trend.
While the stock markets were bullish, the real economies had started slow down even before Coronavirus outbreak. PMI is utilized as a leading indicator to forecast the economic confidence in coming months. As the PMI numbers were below 50.0 in 2019, the recent market crash could have some senses of the adjustment between the market and real economy. Coronavirus just triggered it, perhaps.
By the way, how about today's PMIs? In Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is 33.6 as of Apr-2020, the lowest since the financial crisis 2008. The composite PMI, overview of service and manufacturing sectors, is overwhelmingly 13.5, the record low.
Reminding it is a leading indicator, the economy is expected to be worse in coming months as the impact of lockdown will be realized in our economies. When it did, we would see something worse in the financial market than the last one in 2008.

When the bubble grows, the bursting impact will grow stronger. When the time comes, it devastates the market and economy.