GBPUSD trend & momentum 25-Jun-2015

GBPUSD had gone up until around the end of last week, and it has been down ward trend since beginning of this week. GBP and USD, both are considered as strongest currencies in the current market.

Trend and momentum of GBPUSD indicates it still has room to go down by the end of this week. But it is expected trend reversal to upward trend for a coming next week.

GBPCAD Trend & momentum 18-Jun-2015

GBPCAD had declined around the earlier days in last two weeks, and it has been upward trend after the earlier decline.
The trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is around the peak of upward trend, and it is expected trend reversal into downward trend for a coming week.

Tomorrow, several economic figures, including Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, are revealed in Canada. In UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced tomorrow.

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X MILLAR's contents have been posted at Dukascopy Community 14-Jun-2015

Some of our contents are now available at Dukascopy Community.

Marker research, Trend & Momentum, Tips and other contents are posted on this Blog as usual in the future.

Mansion house speech by Chancellor and BOE governor 10-Jun-2015

Today, the chancellor George Osborne and Bank of England governor Mark Carney will have the annual speech at Bankers and Merchants dinner in London.

Back to the last speech, the governor mentioned the interest rate could go up in next months. But the rate has actually stayed at the record low 0.5% for the year.

Considering the deflation last month, though it may be temporary phenomenon, the interest rate is unlikely expected upside. If any clear direction is indicated in today's speech, forex market can be driven sharply whichever upside or downside.

Osborne’s Mansion House hot topics: rigging, ringfences and RBS

By the way, the trend & momentum of GBPUSD indicates it still has upside but it is limited as expected trend reversal toward later this week.

Anomaly in Stock market? 9-Jun-2015

Since the end of last month, stock markets have declined in major economies, UK, US or Japan where Nikkei down more than 1.70% of the last closing.

It is some sense of anomaly to bring technical analysis into the stock market. Some of the stock indexes are likely near the peak of long term cycle. Back to Nov-2014, the potential cycle has been observed in FTSE 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes, and it was introduced in this blog.

Although the stock markets have not crashed critically yet since that time, the recent market is relatively volatile particularly this month. The cycle analysis still indicates the stock index is still near the peak of potential cycle in FTSE 100. Despite the cycle of DJIA not clearly detected, correlation between DJIA and FTSE 100 is more than 80% in last 20 years. Once one of them has crashed due to critical event, another could suffer as if it is like dominoes.

The market cycle is sometimes anomaly, and it means nothing more than mathematics or statistics. But the fact is both of stock market and bond market are relatively volatile in those days.

Bond market is still far away from last crisis level 7-Jun-2015

Since beginning of this month, Jun 2015, the bond price has gone down sharply, rising government bond yield. Media reacted to the market as if another crisis is coming.

[10 year government yield]

Considering the economic situation, such as potential collapse in financial aid for Greece where the leading party of government is rejecting proposals from other European countries, the debt market could be crashed once such crucial event is triggered.

[10 year government yield except Greece]

With in last two years, the government bond market has been hot in some major economic zones, including UK, US, Japan or Germany. Since the market trend was almost single direction, the yield going down, the trend reversal could be occurred in natural manner.

However, even the government yield has hiked recently, it is too early to see the market crisis. The  chart describes the yield of 10-year government bond. The most of them still stays around record low level of the last decade. Particularly in Greek, Spanish and Italian bonds, the yield is still far lower than those under the European debt crisis in 2011 - 2012.

(CNBC) Pay attention to the chaos in the bond market
(The Telegraph) Global bond market suffers from erratic swings amid liquidity drought

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GBPUSD Trend & momentum + IMF warning US 5-Jun-2015

GBPUSD has hiked since earlier this week, and it has likely reached a peak in short term. The trend and momentum indicates it still has a little upside, but it will be reversed to downward trend toward early next week.

By the way, according to some sources, IMF has cut US growth forecast and they are concerned about rate rising too soon. It implies USD is less competitive than before this news is revealed.

(Guardian) IMF cuts US growth forecast and fires rate rise warning
(Financial Post) IMF’s warning to the Fed could throw Canada’s rate stance off kilter
(Bloomberg) IMF Urges Fed to Postpone Rate Liftoff to First Half of 2016


GBPUSD trend & momentum chart

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GBPUSD Trend & momentum + BOE announcement ahead 3-Jun-2015

GBPUSD has gone up since later yesterday, and it stays at around 1.532 at the moment. The trend and momentum indicates it still has room in upside for short term.

By the way, Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and asset purchase facility tomorrow morning in British time. Interest rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.50%. GBP is still relatively stronger against most of major currencies, and the latest consumer price indicated deflation. Considering those circumstances, Interest rate is expected flat or small possibility of downside.


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GBPUSD Trend & momentum 2-Jun-2015

GBPUSD stays near 2 week low level 1.522 today. The trend & momentum indicates GBPUSD is expected to be reversed into upward trend for a coming week.
 Although some economic figures will be released from both UK and US in this week, the impact from those factors are likely limited as they do not directly affect to the monetary policy. (Except, rate decision will be taken by Bank of England, but this is most likely unchanged.)
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