Bank of England will reveal Financial Stability Report+ on 1-Dec Tuesday 29-Nov-2015

Bank of England will release Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, which include stress tests for high-street banks such as HSBC, RBS or Barclays. Those high-street banks are expected to pass the stress tests without failing, according to the analysts.

the guardian >> Forget Black Friday. Forget Super Thursday. It’s Mark Carney’s Super Tuesday!
Super Tuesday, as some City analysts have decided to call it, brings together the Bank of England’s annual MOT of banks’ financial strength with its twice-yearly assessment of risks to the financial system. It’s not to be confused with Super Thursday – the Bank’s quarterly bombardment of economists with information on inflation and interest rates.

Central banking used to be rather a dull business, but the dry data releases and policy pronouncements are now treated almost like the announcement of Adele’s next tour. Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, is supposedly either a rock star or a George Clooney lookalike, depending on who you talk to.

The so-called stress tests cover the high street banks – HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds – plus Santander UK, Standard Chartered and Nationwide building society.

Analysts don’t think any of the lenders will fail the main test. The real action could be a clampdown on consumer lending after the Bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, said the Bank was keeping an eye on rising household debt. Maybe Tuesday won’t be all that super for the banks.

Mentioned in the guardian's articles, household debt has to be kept on eye because mortgage loan is vulnerable to the interest rate rising. Once concerns raised about if rate rising will suffer household debt, Bank of England probably hesitate to increase the interest rate. Similar story was seen in Australian mortgage a year ago.
Anyway, if expectation for upside of the interest rate wiped off, GBP could decline for a while.

GBPNZD Trend & momentum 28-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.298 yesterday, near the lowest level for the last 2 weeks.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPNZD is on upward trend for a coming week, reversed from the downward trend for a last few weeks.
No significant events are expected on the beginning of next week, though it is just after the black Friday. More important for Forex market, ECB will have next meeting on 3-Dec at Frenkfurt. The point is if additional quantitative easing is released or any other policy changes is introduced at the meeting. EUR is the most sensible currency to the event, but Britain, whose currency is GBP, is a one of the major business leaders in EU now, and GBP can be affected by the event relatively than NZD.

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Market events from 23-Nov-2015

The market events which are likely to affect to FX market. Find out more at QROSS X.

18:00 23-Nov, GMT, US 2 year Note Auction;
    Key currency >> USD

00:05 24-Nov, GMT, Australia RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech;
    Key currency >> AUD

09:00 24-Nov, GMT, UK Inflation Report Hearings;
    Key currency >> GBP

15:30, 24-Nov, GMT, Canada Bank of Canada Review;
    Key currency >> CAD


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GBPCAD Trend & momentum 17-Nov-2015

Particularly for a last few months, Forex market tends to be driven by jump rather than gradual trend. Geopolitical risk has clearly arisen since later 2014, and it is increasing as Paris terror attack last weekend. Nowadays, news and information spread much quicker than past, and they are more digitally formatted.
Those have been likely to contribute changing behaviour in Forex market.

By the way, trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is expected downward trend in a coming week. As military action is becoming stronger, demand for oil can be increased, which is generally positive for the currencies such as CAD. Tomorrow 18-Nov, 10y bond auction will be held in UK, whose result could drive GBP.

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GBPNZD, economic figures released next week in UK and NZ, Trend & momentum 14-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.329 yesterday, which is near the highest level at the beginning of this month.

From next Monday, economic figures will be released in both of UK and New Zealand. Particularly, GBPNZD is expected more volatile on Tuesday as NZ inflation expectations will be revealed by RBNZ and a lot of figures will be released in UK, including Consumer Price Index.

Generally, if the inflation figure is lower than expected, need for monetary easing, such as rate cut or quantitative easing, is increased. It leads to the local currency being cheaper. On the other hand, if the inflation is higher enough than expected, monetary policy is expected eventually tighten, which means the currency value is going to relatively higher.
Those fundamental factors drive Forex market sharply more than the natural trend.

Watching at the energy and commodity market, Crude oil price has approached to near the lowest level in last Aug since the beginning of Nov, Copper price has reached at the lowest level for last 6 years. In the sense of dropped market in this month, the inflation figures will be lower and it could be  lower than anticipated. There is time lag between the figures released, and the FX could jump from the eastern market opening to the earlier western market opened during next Tuesday.

Although the last inflation figure for NZ indicated slightly higher than anticipated, it is still unclear to see if the inflation is recovered.
ECONOTIMES >> New Zealand Consumer price inflation was slightly stronger than anticipated
see if the inflation is recovered.
Stuff.co.nz >> Ongoing low interest rates needed to meet inflation target

In UK, Bank of England is expected to keep their interest rate lower. It implies the economic recovery and inflation are not enough from their view.
BBC >> Bank of England dampens prospects of early UK rate rise

By the way, the trend and momentum for GBPNZD indicates it is sharply lower towards the middle of next week. It implies UK inflation could be more disappointed? Let's see:)

USDCAD Trend & momentum 11-Nov-2015

USD has been up and down for some weeks because of uncertainty whether Federal Reserve increase their interest rate by the end of 2015.

GBP was another currency whose interest rate had been expected going up. However, in earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted their interest rate will stay lower for longer. GBP has gone down sharply against major currencies including USD and JPY.

The Telegraph >> Mark Carney suggests interest rates will stay lower for longer

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said he still sees the need for gradual interest rates rises to bring inflation back to target, but latest forecasts signal a hike in the cost of borrowing may not come for another year.

Mr Carney, who previously said the decision on whether to raise rates would come into "sharper relief" around the turn of the year, said the economic picture had changed in recent months as the global economy has slowed.

He warned the outlook for global growth had weakened since the Bank's last inflation report in August and added that there was a risk of a "more abrupt slowdown in China", which could hit UK growth.

His comments follow the Bank's decision once more to keep interest rates at 0.5%, where they have remained for more than six years.

By the way, the trend and momentum for USDCAD indicates it is expected going down in a coming week. Fundamentally, expectation for the rate rise is a driving factor to USD in short term. If the market consensus expect the rate will not rise by the end of this year, USD could go down sharply against major currencies.

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