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Sunday, 1 March 2020

Tail risk factors emerging simultaneously?

Factorizing geopolitical tail risk into three factors, our old men would say Plague, Famine and War.
If we adapt today's situation into them ...

 Plague >> Coronavirus (Covid-19). Certainly serious now.
 Famine >> Supply chain problems, and goods vanish from super markets. (Due to possible city closures, transport restrictions, ... if Covid-19 spread faster globally.). Locust invasion in Africa.
 War >> Tension between Turkey and Syria. Afghanistan (It depends on whether the peace agreement is successfully proceeded.). ...

A lot of geopolitical issues have emerged since the beginning of 2020, of which Covid-19 is the most serious today. Today, few talks about a rich man who secretly escaped in the instrument box from the country where Diamond Princess cruise ship recently docked.

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