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Tuesday 29 March 2016

Memo [Stock price and Dividend] 29-Mar-2016

Although there is difference between Stock and FX in CFD trading, I prefer to treat both underlyings in same ground.
First of all, let me list main difference between Stock and FX.

[Market opening hours]
Stock: Limited hours between MON and FRI
            LSE: 8:00AM - 4:30PM (LDN time)
            NYSE: 9:30AM - 4:30PM (NY time)
   FX: Whole time between
            SUN 10:00PM (UTC) and FRI 10:00PM (UTC)  (except for world holidays)

[Source of income gain]
Stock: Dividend >= 0
            (Treatment of dividend may be varied in CFD trading according to the brokers)
    FX: Swap
           (It could be profit or loss)

[Frequency of the income gain]
Stock: Annual, Semi-Annual or Quarterly in usual manner
    FX: Daily

In terms of the value sensitivity, Source of income gain is a big difference. Once the value of dividend is withdrawn from the relevant stock, theoretically the stock price should fall according to the dividend. The market do not always behave theoretically, and the stock price is likely to fall beyond the dividend value due to speculation.

Put them in same ground
If you see the FX market, for example GBP/USD means GBP value against USD. In case that GBP/USD is going up, we have two assumptions, "GBP more valuable" or "USD less valuable".

On the other hand, in stock market, in case that FTSE100 is going up, it looks the portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable, or in case that DJA is going up, it looks the portfolio of DJA becomes more valuable. It maybe correct, but the fact to remind is that FTSE100 is quoted in GBP and DJA is quoted in USD respectively.
Now, we see them precisely as FTSE100/GBP and DJA/USD, and FTSE100 going up could mean "The portfolio of FTSE100 becomes more valuable" or "GBP becomes less valuable".
This point of view makes sense for Japanese stock market trend in 2012 - 2013. In those time, JPY value had been down against major currencies and N225 index goes up in JPY. It implies the pure upside on N225 is actually less than the amount in JPY shows.

More things to be mentioned about it, but maybe next time.

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