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Thursday, 12 December 2019

European Banks continue cutting jobs

It has been for about two years since I summarized job cut announcements by European banks. These days, the glooming trend still continues with a bunch of job cut announcements from large European banks.
As mentioned in the past post, digitalization play a role to automate the internal processes which were once handled by the employees whose salaries were relatively higher. More and more you get benefit from your retail banking on your smart phones or laptops, banking jobs not only of traditional services at the local branches, but also the intermediate process such as risk assessment are tightened. (Perhaps, no longer needed.)  This phenomenon seems be irreversible, and therefore this is considered as a structural change in the banking industry. Where the bankers goes after dropping out?

As if joining to the trend, the car industry is also about to squeeze jobs, attributing to a rise of the electric vehicles. A recent story tells that Audi plans massive job cuts in their home country Germany, a champion of the industry.

BBC: Audi to cut 9,500 jobs to fund electric car push
Carmaker Audi is to cut 9,500 of its 61,000 jobs in Germany between now and 2025 to make more money available for electric vehicles and digital working.
The cuts - which aim to save €6bn (£5.1bn) - will be achieved through an early retirement programme.
But the Volkswagen-owned firm also said its move into electric cars would mean the creation of up to 2,000 jobs.
It comes less than a fortnight after Daimler said it would cut more than 1,000 jobs by the end of 2022.
The car industry is facing a downturn in key markets, including China, as well as increased costs as it meets tougher European Union emissions regulations and the costly switch to electric vehicles. Audi saw falling sales, revenues and operating profits in the first nine months of 2019.

And some stories of job cut announcements in banking industry, too.

FT: Europe’s banks slash 60,000 jobs as outlook turns negative

Bloomberg: Global Bank Job Cull Tops 75,000 This Year as UniCredit Cuts


Some says it is "Japanification", the deja vu which Japan have experienced decades of economic stagnation. But we are facing structural changes in the industries rather than the market bubble. In Europe, it seems be even worse than Japanese deja vu in the last decade.

Wednesday, 11 December 2019

UK election and GBP on 12-Dec-2019

UK election is ahead on 12-Dec-2019, which held first time on December since 1923.
According to the latest polls, it predicts Tory's majority while it's not comfortable enough to avoid a hung parliament.

Evening Standard: UK opinion polls: Conservatives set for majority of 28... but hung parliament possible as support drops
YouGov has interviewed approximately 100,000 people about their voting intentions in the past seven days.
It said the margin of error could put the final number of Tory seats anywhere between 311 and 367, suggesting a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out.
Sterling fell by around a third of a cent against the US dollar after the news. Financial markets fear a hung parliament would extend the uncertainty over if or when Britain will leave the European Union, which it is currently due to do on January 31,

As mentioned on the above story, outcome of the hung parliament will drag GBP down sharply as the uncertainty over Brexit consequence.
EURGBP is currently near the level after the Brexit referendum 2016.
If British constituencies successfully avoid the hung parliament, the Tory's Brexit deal is expected to be passed before 31-Jan. (some days of technical extension maybe in the worst case.) In this case, GBP will be stronger, approaching toward the level before the Brexit referendum (EURGBP below 0.80).
If it resulted as a hung parliament, EURGBP could jump to around 0.90 - 0.92 up to the highest in 2019.

In the meantime, today's trend and momentum of EURGBP indicates the upward direction in a coming week including the UK election date, which implies the possible hung parliament outcome...
While we recommend to watch out the latest polls, it is also interesting to see if the indicator still reasonably work under the critical event against the market. Let's see tomorrow.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Swiss Franc could surge in a coming week? Trend and Momentum 26-Nov-2019

Looking at the latest trend and momentums of EURCHF and USDCHF, they are expected to be into downward trend which means Swiss Franc will be relatively stronger against both Euro and US Dollar.
EURCHF Trend and Momentum
EURCHF Trend and Momentum
USDCHF Trend and Momentum
USDCHF Trend and Momentum

On this Wednesday, ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) will publish their survey expectations which consist of business conditions, employment conditions and the other factors in Switzerland. (ZEW Survey - Expectations)

If the actual figure beat the market consensus or expectation, it would be positive for Swiss Franc, which could lead the currency more bullish Of course, in case the figure disappointing the market, Swiss Franc can be into bearish trend. The point is that ZEW publication on Wednesday is a remarkable one which could affect Swiss Franc fundamentally.

Regarding US Dollar, much more economic events are on ahead in coming days. (See the economic calendar on QROSS X). Perhaps, USDCHF can be more volatile than EURCHF in a coming week.


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Saturday, 2 November 2019

Canadian Dollar trend reversed shortly even though BoC turned to be dovish stance? 2-Nov-2019

Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened against major currencies including GBP and EUR in the last week. Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 1.75% while they turned dovish, concerning about global trade conflict.

Reuters: Canadian dollar hits two-week low as Bank of Canada takes dovish turn
Canada’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.75% as expected but left the door open to a possible cut over the coming months to help the economy weather the damaging effects of global trade conflicts.

“The loonie has sold off post-statement due to the fact that the BoC is beginning to witness the effects of external headwinds on the Canadian economy,” said Simon Harvey, FX market analyst for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

The central bank’s “dovish stance” raises expectations for policy easing, “especially if the economic data and external climate deteriorates further,” Harvey said.

Money markets moved to fully price in a rate cut as early as July. Before the announcement, chances of a cut next year were seen at less than 50%. BOCWATCH

It seems that expectations of the rate cuts next year is taken into account in the price, and BoC still kept 'Neutral' stance on the rates. Natural bounce back can be expected shortly against the overheated mood in FX market. (Of course, there is a possibility BoC may withdraw neutral stance, changing to pessimistic as their concerns in the future.)

BNN Bloomberg: Bank of Canada holds rates, warns economy will be 'tested'
The statement and the fresh batch of more pessimistic growth forecasts will raise questions about the central bank’s commitment to a neutral stance on rates, particularly in the face of global easing in many other countries that has made the Bank of Canada an outlier. If the Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates later today, as expected, the Bank of Canada would have the highest policy rate in the industrialized world.

In the meantime, our trend and momentum signals indicate CAD surging against GBP and EUR in a coming week.
GBPCAD Trend and Momentum

EURCAD Trend and Momentum

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Friday, 5 July 2019

Swiss Franc (CHF) bullish in a coming week? Trend and Momentum on 5-Jul-2019

As a result that Switzerland and EU failed to agree on their future relationship, the investors of each economy are not able to trade stocks listed on each other's stock exchange since last Monday. While the impact for the long term is still not clear, some says there is no immediate impact on Swiss side and EU maybe more badly affected. Another source says high frequency traders will be the most affected badly.

>> [SWI] Has the EU scored an own goal with Swiss stock exchange freeze?
>> [Bloomberg] Swiss Stocks Trade Smoothly on Day One Without EU Recognition

In the meantime, some trend and momentum of CHF indicates that CHF could surge in a coming week. Picked up some better fitted ones, here is the trend and momentum of CHFJPY and USDCHF respectively.

[CHFJPY]


[USDCHF]

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Monday, 1 July 2019

US Dollar surging as its trade tension with China eased 1-Jul-2019

After G20 conference in Osaka, US Dollar has been surging against other currencies as the market sees US's trade tension with China eased.
>> CNBC: Dollar advances to 2-week high after US-China trade tensions ease

The below charts describe AUDUSD and EURUSD respectively since the late last week.

[AUDUSD]


[EURUSD]

On 27-Jun last week, we picked up the Trend and Momentum for AUDUSD and EURUSD. Maybe coincident? or the signal just worked? Who knows...

To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Thursday, 27 June 2019

US Dollar bullish shortly? Trend and Momentum on 27-Jun-2019

For the last few months, the world have been in geopolitical turbulence, consisting of US-China trade tension and US-Iran relation symbolically. UK's new prime minister will be designated by the end of July, while the recent poll indicates Mr.Boris Johnson is more likely to be a new PM than the foreign secretary Mr.Jeremy Hunt.

>> UK’s next prime minister — who are the lead candidates?

Let's shift the gear to technical matters, USD is expected to surge in a coming week according to the Trend and Momentum. The signal is more particularly observed in AUDUSD and EURUSD.

AUDUSD
[AUDUSD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]


EURUSD
[USD Trend and Momentum as of 27-Jun-2019]


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.