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Thursday 13 November 2014

Next Risk Factors - 13-Nov-2014

Needless to say, now global economy is facing the most difficult situation in the history. Central banks in major economic zone, such as US, UK, Eurozone and Japan, have kept interest rate at record low level for long time since Lehman crisis 2008. Not limited to monetary policy, they also brought Quantitative Easing (QE), buying risky assets in the market.

Although those attempts provide liquidity in the financial markets, it is difficult to control speculation in the market, and the worst scenario is ended up with collapse of bubble.

QE is finished in US, Bank of Japan has announced another large scaled QE and ECB still has room to continue QE.

Where is the provided US dollar by QE? It could be any risky assets, however, a story says exposures of subprime auto loan have jumped during the QE in US and it is implanted in such as Asset Backed Security (ABS). You may remember subprime mortgage loan has been collapsed 2007.

What kind of asset will be purchased by next QE in Japan? They announced REIT and ETF are also purchased in larger scale more than now. They are printing yen and buying risky assets. It seems that credit on JPY is likely degraded, and as a matter of fact, JPY has been weaken against most of major currencies since end of last Oct.

How about European economy? We could say the worst situation has gone during Euro debt crisis around 2011-2012. However, economic recovery was less than the market expected, and ECB still may take QE.

China, India Australia or New Zealand, they would be relatively optimistic, aren't they?

Anyway, the most important thing is How to diversify your own assets. Equity, Multi-currencies, Real estates, Metals, Bit-Coin.....



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