[XIELO] Memphis Strategy Builder first version has been released

Memphis Strategy Builder has been released today first time. This is available at XIELO Consulting website.

[XIELO Consulting] Memphis Strategy Builder coming soon

XIELO Consulting plans to release the Windows software "Memphis Strategy Builder" within a week. Memphis Strategy Builder enable to analyze the forex trading strategy easily. It figures out Profit/Loss and other indicators to evaluate the strategy. It also allows to export into source code in MQL which enables automatic trading on Meta Trader.

XIELO Consulting has managed QROSS X and its Android app "Forex Signal by QROSS X". Memphis Strategy Builder would be suitable for experienced traders to implement their strategy into algorithm trading platform. It is simplified to prevent wasting time of busy traders.

AUDCAD trend & momentum, economic figures released in a coming week 7-Dec-2015

AUDCAD stays around 0.9816 now, and it has steeply gone up for a last week. The latest trend and momentum signal indicates AUDCAD is expected to be reversed into downward trend for a coming week. Keep in mind that economic figures will be released over the week in both Australia and Canada. While technical analysis works under economic events, checking the predictable events maximizes your profit from trading activity.

The Sydney Morning Herald >> Flood of leading indicators arrive this week
The ANZ job ads, National Australia Bank's business confidence and conditions, and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index come in early this week.
The business and consumer confidence figures will be watched for signs that a wave of approval following Malcolm Turnbull's appointment in September as Prime Minister was more than just a honeymoon period. Westpac-MI's consumer sentiment index in particular read 101.7, a near two-year high, last month. A number over 100 signals that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Wall Street Journal >> Key Canada Events: Week of December 7 to 11
Highlights on this week’s Canadian events calendar include a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, the latest read on the country’s housing market and earnings from a few big retailers.

Stephen Poloz, governor of Canada’s central bank, is scheduled to deliver a speech in Toronto on Tuesday. The topic of his speech, after which Mr. Poloz will take questions, is entitled “The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” The governor’s appearance comes less than a week after the central bank held its key interest rate steady at 0.5% and said Canada’s economy faces a “complex and lengthy” transition amid lower commodity prices.

Also on Tuesday, Canada’s main housing agency – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. -- will release housing starts for November. National Bank said it expects a softening in starts to around 195,000, based on declining building-permit applications. Building permits unexpectedly declined in September -- the latest reading -- on weaker demand to construct condominium units and single-detached homes. Housing starts in October fell 14.4% to an annual rate of 198,065.

EURUSD trend & momentum, ECB meeting 3-Dec-2015

EURUSD, the trend and momentum has indicated downward trend. Today, 14:30 ECB have a conference where bankers expect further quantitative easing or monetary policy.EUR is still expected easy money while US will start the rate rising expected by the end of 2015.

Bank of England will reveal Financial Stability Report+ on 1-Dec Tuesday 29-Nov-2015

Bank of England will release Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, which include stress tests for high-street banks such as HSBC, RBS or Barclays. Those high-street banks are expected to pass the stress tests without failing, according to the analysts.

the guardian >> Forget Black Friday. Forget Super Thursday. It’s Mark Carney’s Super Tuesday!
Super Tuesday, as some City analysts have decided to call it, brings together the Bank of England’s annual MOT of banks’ financial strength with its twice-yearly assessment of risks to the financial system. It’s not to be confused with Super Thursday – the Bank’s quarterly bombardment of economists with information on inflation and interest rates.

Central banking used to be rather a dull business, but the dry data releases and policy pronouncements are now treated almost like the announcement of Adele’s next tour. Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, is supposedly either a rock star or a George Clooney lookalike, depending on who you talk to.

The so-called stress tests cover the high street banks – HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds – plus Santander UK, Standard Chartered and Nationwide building society.

Analysts don’t think any of the lenders will fail the main test. The real action could be a clampdown on consumer lending after the Bank’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, said the Bank was keeping an eye on rising household debt. Maybe Tuesday won’t be all that super for the banks.

Mentioned in the guardian's articles, household debt has to be kept on eye because mortgage loan is vulnerable to the interest rate rising. Once concerns raised about if rate rising will suffer household debt, Bank of England probably hesitate to increase the interest rate. Similar story was seen in Australian mortgage a year ago.
Anyway, if expectation for upside of the interest rate wiped off, GBP could decline for a while.

GBPNZD Trend & momentum 28-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.298 yesterday, near the lowest level for the last 2 weeks.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPNZD is on upward trend for a coming week, reversed from the downward trend for a last few weeks.
No significant events are expected on the beginning of next week, though it is just after the black Friday. More important for Forex market, ECB will have next meeting on 3-Dec at Frenkfurt. The point is if additional quantitative easing is released or any other policy changes is introduced at the meeting. EUR is the most sensible currency to the event, but Britain, whose currency is GBP, is a one of the major business leaders in EU now, and GBP can be affected by the event relatively than NZD.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

Market events from 23-Nov-2015

The market events which are likely to affect to FX market. Find out more at QROSS X.

18:00 23-Nov, GMT, US 2 year Note Auction;
    Key currency >> USD

00:05 24-Nov, GMT, Australia RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech;
    Key currency >> AUD

09:00 24-Nov, GMT, UK Inflation Report Hearings;
    Key currency >> GBP

15:30, 24-Nov, GMT, Canada Bank of Canada Review;
    Key currency >> CAD


To check Forex trading signals, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPCAD Trend & momentum 17-Nov-2015

Particularly for a last few months, Forex market tends to be driven by jump rather than gradual trend. Geopolitical risk has clearly arisen since later 2014, and it is increasing as Paris terror attack last weekend. Nowadays, news and information spread much quicker than past, and they are more digitally formatted.
Those have been likely to contribute changing behaviour in Forex market.

By the way, trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is expected downward trend in a coming week. As military action is becoming stronger, demand for oil can be increased, which is generally positive for the currencies such as CAD. Tomorrow 18-Nov, 10y bond auction will be held in UK, whose result could drive GBP.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPNZD, economic figures released next week in UK and NZ, Trend & momentum 14-Nov-2015

GBPNZD closed at around 2.329 yesterday, which is near the highest level at the beginning of this month.

From next Monday, economic figures will be released in both of UK and New Zealand. Particularly, GBPNZD is expected more volatile on Tuesday as NZ inflation expectations will be revealed by RBNZ and a lot of figures will be released in UK, including Consumer Price Index.

Generally, if the inflation figure is lower than expected, need for monetary easing, such as rate cut or quantitative easing, is increased. It leads to the local currency being cheaper. On the other hand, if the inflation is higher enough than expected, monetary policy is expected eventually tighten, which means the currency value is going to relatively higher.
Those fundamental factors drive Forex market sharply more than the natural trend.

Watching at the energy and commodity market, Crude oil price has approached to near the lowest level in last Aug since the beginning of Nov, Copper price has reached at the lowest level for last 6 years. In the sense of dropped market in this month, the inflation figures will be lower and it could be  lower than anticipated. There is time lag between the figures released, and the FX could jump from the eastern market opening to the earlier western market opened during next Tuesday.

Although the last inflation figure for NZ indicated slightly higher than anticipated, it is still unclear to see if the inflation is recovered.
ECONOTIMES >> New Zealand Consumer price inflation was slightly stronger than anticipated
see if the inflation is recovered.
Stuff.co.nz >> Ongoing low interest rates needed to meet inflation target

In UK, Bank of England is expected to keep their interest rate lower. It implies the economic recovery and inflation are not enough from their view.
BBC >> Bank of England dampens prospects of early UK rate rise

By the way, the trend and momentum for GBPNZD indicates it is sharply lower towards the middle of next week. It implies UK inflation could be more disappointed? Let's see:)

USDCAD Trend & momentum 11-Nov-2015

USD has been up and down for some weeks because of uncertainty whether Federal Reserve increase their interest rate by the end of 2015.

GBP was another currency whose interest rate had been expected going up. However, in earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted their interest rate will stay lower for longer. GBP has gone down sharply against major currencies including USD and JPY.

The Telegraph >> Mark Carney suggests interest rates will stay lower for longer

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said he still sees the need for gradual interest rates rises to bring inflation back to target, but latest forecasts signal a hike in the cost of borrowing may not come for another year.

Mr Carney, who previously said the decision on whether to raise rates would come into "sharper relief" around the turn of the year, said the economic picture had changed in recent months as the global economy has slowed.

He warned the outlook for global growth had weakened since the Bank's last inflation report in August and added that there was a risk of a "more abrupt slowdown in China", which could hit UK growth.

His comments follow the Bank's decision once more to keep interest rates at 0.5%, where they have remained for more than six years.

By the way, the trend and momentum for USDCAD indicates it is expected going down in a coming week. Fundamentally, expectation for the rate rise is a driving factor to USD in short term. If the market consensus expect the rate will not rise by the end of this year, USD could go down sharply against major currencies.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPUSD Trend & momentum 26-Oct-2015

The trend and momentum indicates GBPUSD is expected upward trend in this week. From the point of view of market consensus, USD could be weaker due to the revealed monetary easing from China and Eurozone last week. It will be burden for US Federal Reserve to increase their intrest rate soon.

Bear market early next week? 24-Oct-2015

Two big economies on move to another monetary policy action. It has been revealed this week by Chinese central bank and European central bank.

Chinese central bank cut their interest rates which are one year benchmarks of lending and deposit rate respectively. Both rates are cut 25bp, where the lending rate is to 4.35% and the deposit rate is to 1.50%.

On the western side, ECB indicated new stimulus could be introduced around December, which implies further quantitative easing is expected. It also added the deposit rate could be cut into negative territory.

Market is likely to start doubting if US federal reserve increase US interest rate.

Stock market have been closed positively on Friday in major economic zones, such as DJA, FTSE100, Nikkei225, CAC40 or DAX Index.

Although the market have been bullish for the week, additional stimulus of rate cut and quantitative easing implies the economic recovery is still not enough.
Since Lehman crisis, record low rates and quantitative easing had been undertaken in the global economy. US had set zero rate and introduced QE until 2014. UK had managed their interest rate at record low level and undertaken QE until 2013.
While the global economy seems be still struggling, it is probably doubtful if continuous monetary easing recover the economy. Once market consensus start doubting it, they will become vulnerable to the risk.

By the way, the trend and momentum of GBPJPY indicates it is expected downward trend in a coming week. Currently, it stays around 186 and the signal indicates it could be down to 183 in the week. It is possible if the market turns to conservative.


To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPAUD trend & momentum 18-Oct-2015

GBPAUD had been downward trend since beginning of Oct, and it has bounced back to half of the early decline. GBPAUD is currently at around 2.12.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPAUD can go up to around 2.15 as peak in a coming week. The signal also indicates the upward trend could end shortly, and it is reversed into downward trend again in a week.

Under the recent geopolitical risk, UK and Australia are relatively stable situation at the moment. Eurozone, particularly Germany, is struggling on unexpected crisis, such as increasing refugees and Volkswagen scandals.

To check more signals in other Forex pairs, download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

GBPNZD trend & momentum 30-Sep-2015

Recently, one of researching firms has pointed out that Babk of England will not cut the interest rate until 2016. In this sense, GBP is not stronger than that anticipated before.


GBP has been particularly weak against most of major currencies for the last 2 weeks. The trend and momentum now indicates the trend reversal for short term. Particularly, GBPNZD is expected upward steeply.

GBPJPY trend & momentum 29-Sep-2015

GBPJPY is nearly the lowest level since last May, currently staying around 181.50.

Financial market is volatile and chaotic today. Glencore, the stock price is nearly 70.00, and it recorded more than 300 about 4 months ago. One of Japanese shipping company is going to be under administration, due to extraordinary loss expected.

Downside of this crash is unpredictable, but the trend and momentum in GBPJPY is indicating the trend is reversed for a coming week against the downward trend in last 2 weeks.

If you have confidence to change this uncertainty to profit, Forex Signal by QROSS X will help your forex trading.

Credit Default Swap market signals another trend? 26-Sep-2015

Since the beginning of this year, global financial market have been volatile and chaotic in uncertainty of geopolitics and economics. You easily remember Chinese stock market crashed recently, but we have experienced several events from beginning of 2015, which have driven the market.

(Remarkable events in 2015)
 Jan 2015: Swiss Franc Jumped 30% - 40% against Euro, and massively gone up against other currencies.
 Jan 2015: Greek election. SYRIZA lead by Alexis Tsipras became a leading party in Greek government.
 May 2015: UK general election. Although the leading party is Conservative party lead by David Cameron, opposition parties are restructured in larger scale. Labour and Lib-Dem lost certain number of seats, but Scottish National Party (SNP) got more seats.
 Jun - Sep 2015: Chinese stock market have continued going down, and other market including in UK, US and Japan have declined.
 Aug 2015: Chinese yuan (CNY) has been devalued.
 Sep 2015: Refugee crisis got attention. Number of refugees in this year became record high in Germany.
 Sep 2015: Volkswagen's emissions scandal. German car industry could face slowdown.
 Long term trend 2015: Natural resources including crude oil and iron ore, the price continues going down.
 Long term trend 2015: Currency has been weak in emerging market, including BRL, ZAR, MXN, MYR or PHP.
 Long term trend 2015: Currencies of natural resources provider, such as AUD, NZD and CAD has been weak as the interest rate has been lowered.


By the way, today's subject is about Credit Default Swap (=CDS) market. While such events have been occurred since the beginning of 2015, CDS market indicates some sense of another trend.
CDS market might be unfamiliar with some of you, but it is basically measured in credit spread for each entity. When the spread is widen, the market expect the referenced entity is losing its credit. When the spread is tighten, the market expect the entity is getting credit.

Around 2010 - 2012, it was sovereign  bond crisis, particularly Greek bond yield has shot up record high. 10 year Greek bond yield has gone up 25% - 30% at the peak. Since then, the market has been calm down. Compared with that time, the credit market is still stable.

However, CDS spread have been widening in some economic zones since early 2015. For example, Spanish banking industry have been getting wider spread sharply. Spain is facing political uncertainty about discussion of Catalonian independence. A political party, Podemos, could add another shot into the market.
On the other side of the planet, Australian banking industry have been getting wider CDS spread, too. Australian economy highly depends on Chinese demand, and the demand has been slowing down since beginning of this year. Chinese stock market crisis may drive the Australian CDS market further.
American, British, German and Japanese banking industries are relatively tighten.

It may be too soon to say crisis about Chinese stock market crush. It could be just the beginning of chaos.

If you have confidence to change this uncertainty to profit, Forex Signal by QROSS X will help your forex trading.

GBPAUD trend & momentum 25-Sep-2015

GBPAUD has stayed above 2.10 for a long time while it was 1.40 - 1.50 in 2012.

The trend and momentum indicates GBPAUD is expected downward trend for a coming week.  Since Australian prime minister has changed, Australian policy has to be observed how it affects to the financial market.

How difficult situation to lift interest rate? 13-Sep-2015

It has been a while since discussion was started about lifting the interest rate. Watching the market consensus, it seems that the rate hike is triggered by US or UK.

For a last few years, however, the market has moved against the rate rise. There have been multiple factors, listed below, preventing US, UK or others to lift their interest rate in the global economy.

1. Rate cutting in other nations
Particularly in the last year, but for a last few years, the policy rates have been cut remarkably in several nations, such as Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, ...  Some of them has reached at negative rates. As a result of those rate cutting, USD and GBP has been stronger against currencies, particularly against AUD, NZD and CAD.
In the current market, US or UK rate hike will lead to their currency value gone up. It may be good for importer in those nations, but it would suffer the exporter as USD and GBP are already expensive than other currencies relatively.
There is certain level of concern about deflation risk as their currency values are already higher and rate hike lift the currency value further.

2. Price for oil and natural resources down sharply
WTI crude oil price currently stays around 44.6, and it was around 90 just a year ago. While media have mainly broadcasted that the crude oil price has been going down, other natural resources, such as Iron Ore, the price has gone down in parallel with the oil price. Chinese demand for the oil and natural resources have been shrink for a last few years due to their growth slowing down.
The lower price is not bad for consumers and importers, but it still brings deflation risk into the world. For the exporters such as Australia or Canada, weak demand for oil and natural resources suffer their economy.

Local 10  >>  Goldman Sachs: Oil could hit $20
Forget $40 a barrel oil. Prices could plummet to $20 as a massive supply glut persists until the end of next year.

That's the view of Goldman Sachs, which published an oil report Friday headlined "Lower for even longer."

The bank's commodities team slashed its forecast for average prices in 2016 to $45 per barrel from $57, but said the risks of a collapse to $20 were growing.

Under the risk at deflation, it is difficult decision whether rate hike or not. But at the same time, keeping loose monetary policy, there is eventually a room that inflation badly suffer the people's life.

Even in such situation, Bank of England is likely under pressure to lift their interest rate, as BOE announced the rate must rise relatively soon.

CITY A.M.  >>  Interest rates must rise "relatively soon" says Bank of England's Martin Weale
Interest rates will need to rise "relatively soon", Bank of England rate setter Martin Weale has said.
The hawkish member of the BoE's monetary policy committee (MPC) has said inflation is likely to rise above the central bank's two per cent inflation target "in two to three years' time", which needs to be reflected in policy now.

Weale is the second BoE official in as many days to point to a rate rise. Fellow member of the nine-strong MPC, Kristin Forbes, said on Friday rates will rise sooner rather than later, because the appreciation of sterling may be less of a drag on inflation and import prices than first thought.


Keep yourself to follow the global economy more efficiently, why not use Newsensus. Available on Google Play.

2 most important things for Forex & CFD traders 8-Sep-2015

I introduced 8 things to become a nomad trader on this blog, and today I would like to mention "2 things most important things for Forex & CFD traders" which more focus on trading itself for the successful trading, while the last topics, 8 things to ..., hinted about traders' life style.

The most important things for traders are merely two things below, but I understand most of beginners are trapped in trading without those disciplines.

Your own strategy
Beginners tend to trade by their judgement from subjective view. It sometimes may work, or always work if you were the trading god. However, in other words, there are no rules, patterns nor empirical justification.
Before you trade with your money, you should have certain strategy which characterize your trading rule.
Trading by technical analysis, you will look at technical indicators on the chart, and you will long or short when the technical indicator reached at specific figure.
Trading by fundamentals analysis, you will look at economic indicators such as policy rates, GDP growth, unemployment rate, .... The market is driven by those economic indicators when the indicators are updated.
Lastly, the simplest rule is to decide how much to take profit and how much to allow loss. Particularly, traders tend to fail without stop loss.

Never break your strategy but improve the strategy
Even if you set up your strategy, you are still a human and sometimes can be emotional. When your position indicates unrealized profit, you may want to take the profit despite the signal indicating the profit being bigger. When your position indicates unrealized loss, you may believe the loss eventually become profit despite the signal indicating the loss being bigger.
Ultimately, no one knows future. But in trading, your own strategy is a only thing to predict future. If you think your strategy is insufficient, you should have further analysis and improve the strategy instead of emotional trading.


We are providing our own technical indicators which are called FX trend & momentum. Download App "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

[England] Interest rate rise will not be derailed according to Bank of England governor 29-Aug-2015

Since Chinese stock market crashed this month, the global market have become bearish as risky asset sold sharply. This event brought the discussion if rate rise in US and UK is expected to be delayed. The market reacted as USD had been weaken against other currencies such as EUR or JPY until 24-Aug. GBP had been weaken in the same period as USD but it has not been recovered yet.

Today, Bank of England governor, Mark Carney said China’s financial woes will not derail plans to raise interest rates.

The Telegraph >> China's 'Black Monday' will not derail rate rises, says Mark Carney

Speaking at the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, Mark Carney acknowledged that the dramatic decline in Chinese stocks had sparked volatility in Western markets but claimed that it would not knock his economic plans off course.
“The direct exposure of the UK economy to China is relatively modest,” he told delegates. “Developments in China are unlikely to change the process of rate increases.”

This discussion was held after the Forex market closed on Friday, and it implies GBP will be stronger against other currencies at the market opening on Monday, though it is Bank holiday in England, by the way.

Trend & momentum for GBPJPY indicates it is expected upside in early next week. JPY has been stronger while the stock market was going down.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

Global stock market plummeted further on Monday 24-Aug-2015

On 23-Aug (Mon), global stock market has been plummeted in the world, whose scale is from 0.50% to 8.50%.

Daily value changes:

[Asia & Pacific]

(Australia) S&P/ASX 200 >> -4.09%
(China) SSE Composite Index >> -8.49%

(Hong Kong) Hang Seng Index >> -5.17%
(India) S&P BSE SENSEX >> -5.94%

(Japan) Nikkei 225 index >> -4.61%

(Singapore) STI Index >> -4.30%

[Europe / Middle East]

(France) CAC 40 >> -5.35%

(Germany) DAX >> -4.70%

(Italy) FTSE MIB >> -5.96%

(Norway) OSLOStock Exchange All Index >> -5.34%

(Russia) RTSI Index >> -4.94%

(Spain) IBEX 35 >> -5.01%

(Sweden) OMX Stockholm 30 >> -4.50%
(UAE) Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index >> -0.51%

(UK) FTSE 100 >> -4.67%

[Africa]

(South Africa) FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index >> -2.85%

(Nigeria) Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index >> -2.22%

[North/South America]

(Brazil) IBOVESPA >> -3.03%

(Canada) S&P/TSX Composite index >> -3.12%

(US) Dow Jones Industrial Average >> -3.57%

Asian and European market have been down relatively in larger scale than other economic zones. Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index got remarkably small impact, and African and American markets are affected in smaller scale.

In addition to major stock market, oil price has declined further. But remarkable one is USDRUB staying near the peak of early this year. Currently, USDRUB is around 70.52.

[USDRUB as of 24-Aug-2015. Source by Trading View]

Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

Chinese stock market is under necessary adjustment, according to IMF 23-Aug-2015

It has been mentioned in the last post, whether too soon to call the situation as Crisis. Yesterday, IMF said economic slowdown and stock market falling are necessary adjustment.

Reuters >> IMF official says 'premature' to speak of Chinese crisis

China's economic slowdown and a sharp fall in its stock market herald not a crisis but a "necessary" adjustment for the world's second biggest economy, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Saturday.

Fresh evidence of easing growth in China hammered global stock markets on Friday, driving Wall Street to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years.

"Monetary policies have been very expansive in recent years and an adjustment is necessary," said Carlo Cottarelli, an IMF executive director representing countries such as Italy and Greece on its board.

"It's totally premature to speak of a crisis in China," he told a press conference.

Even though the stock market has fallen sharply, the stock index, such as SSE Composite Index, is above the level at beginning of 2015. Numeric figure also implies it is premature to say "Crisis".


Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

Too soon to call it "Crisis"? 22-Aug-2015

SSE Composite Index in CNY and USD

Stock price has steeply gone down in major economic zones in the world, lead by Chinese market, followed by such US, UK, Western Europe, Asia and Pacific.

Without particular events, such as Sub-prime loan crisis or Lehman crisis, the crisis is defined after the stock market crashed into bottom. Although the stock market has plunged sharply, in SSE Composite Index, the current level is still almost same or slightly above the level at the beginning of this year.

This is both in CNY and USD.

S&P/ASX 200 in AUD and USD

It means, even though CNY itself has been devalued this month, the stock index is still higher than the value at beginning of the year.

However, looking at Australian stock index S&P/ASX200, the level is already record low within last 4 - 5 years in USD, while it is still above the level at beginning of 2015 in AUD. This is because of weakness in AUD in last 3 years.

The stock market is highly correlated as realized last October or movement in this month.

CITY A.M. >> Chaos on European markets as FTSE 100 tumbles, while S&P 500 crashes below 2,000 points

There still seems be room where Chinese stock market is going down, the correlation could bring more chaos into other economic zones than China itself.

See Stock indexes for other economic zones.

Check international business news on Newsensus. Available on GooglePlay

EURJPY Trend & momentum 11-Aug-2015

Expectation of Greek deal bring positive sentiment into the market, and EUR has been steady for last days. In Asia and Pacific market, since CNY (CNH as offshore) was devalued as poor economic figure, AUD also became weaker, which implies Australian dependence on Chinese economy.

Reuters >> China devalues yuan after poor economic data

The trend and momentum indicates EURJPY is expected downward trend in a coming week while EURJPY have been steeply going up by now.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

[Android App] Trend & Momentum universal time chart released as Beta version 9-Aug-2015

Since we realized some of users were unable to see the universal time chart on App, new universal time chart has been live today.

Although it is still beta version, most of users should be able to see the chart now. We continue to improve it for our mission help people to thrive with Forex trading.

[New Universal Time Chart in Beta version]

AUDCAD Trend & momentum 7-Aug-2015

AUDCAD has been upward trend since last interest rate decison by RBA. On the other side, CAD had been weaker againt other currencies after the unexpected rate cut with concerned statistical figure last month.

In the mean time, the trend and momentum indicates AUDCAD will be downward trend in a coming week, implying bounce back from the upward trend.

[GBP] Monetary Policy Committee Announcement and Minutes by Bank of England 6-Aug-2015

>> Earlier tweet by QROSS X

Today's noon in UK time, Bank of England will have Monetary Policy Committee Announcement and Minutes.

Although the interest rate is expected at 0.50% unchanged, expectation of future interest rate is another key factor at the minutes as votes for rate rising can be more than last committee.

By the way, the trend and momentum in GBPAUD indicates it continues upward trend in a coming week.


To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

GBPAUD Trend & momentum, RBA announcement 4-Aug-2015

GBPAUD has massively gone down while AUD became bullish against other currencies, as RBA announced holding the interest rate at 2.0% as well as removal of the sentence demanding cheaper AUD.

The Australian >> Reserve Bank holds official cash rate steady at 2 per cent

It implies AUD will be stronger in longer term as the policy changed.
By the way, the trend & momentum in GBPAUD indicates further downward trend in coming days.

AUDJPY Long term anomaly? 30-Jul-2015

Since early last month, some of stock indices have been downward trend with Chinese stock market plummeted. List of major stock indices are listed on a post in the past.

By the way, although anomaly is just anomaly without any fundamentals evidence, it implies the time for risky asset to be adjusted. We have introduced anomaly in stock market on this blog, Forex Flyer.

AUDJPY 1993 - Present

For a last 2-3 years, AUD has been declined against major currencies due to the interest rate lowered. Some market analysts mention Australian economy highly depends on Chinese economy nowadays, and it implies current Chinese market slow down badly affect to Australian market. If Australian market is being slow down further, the interest rate could be cut to ease financial policy. It means AUD will be at downside risk in that situation.
This is just a mathematical trick, anomaly oddly describe AUDJPY stays near the peak, applying trend & momentum analysis. JPY is typically strong while global market is shrink and vulnerable while AUD is considered more risky asset relatively.

The fact is the market has become very volatile for months, facing geopolitical issues, such as Greek bailout or Chinese stock market.

To trade with FX trend & momentum, download "Forex Signal by QROSS X" at Google Play.

[NZD] RBNZ indicates further depreciation at NZD 29-Jul-2015

Data: RBNZ statistics

RBNZ governor's comment implied further weakness at New Zealand Dollar near future. According to the comment, inflation figures in a last few years encouraged to ease financial market in New Zealand economy.

Ref. 
 RBNZ >> Monetary policy supporting growth and inflation goal
 The Reserve Bank today confirmed that at this stage some further monetary policy easing is likely to be required to maintain New Zealand’s economic growth around its potential, and return CPI inflation to its medium-term target level.

Further exchange rate depreciation is necessary, given the weakness in export commodity prices and the projected deterioration in the country’s net external liabilities over the next two years, Governor Graeme Wheeler said.

 Scoop >> HiFX - RBNZ Governor Wheeler comments - NZD higher

 On the other hands, property market in New Zealand has been hot for a last few years. Normally, easing financial market brings cheap money in the market, and it creates bubble in stock market or property market. For example, in London, the property market had been upward trend while quantitative easing was introduced.
 Commodity market has been sharply downward trend, and it is burden in the countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Russia or Canada.


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[Announcement] Trend & Momentum upgraded 20-Jul-2015

Trend & Momentum signals, available on Mobile App and Website, have been upgraded from today. The new signals more precisely catch up volatility fluctuation in the analysis period.

Mobile App, "Forex Signal by QROSS X", is available on Google Play. As always it's free:)

[Forex Signal by QROSS X] Promotion video is live on Youtube 18-Jul-2015

The promotion video of Android App, "Forex Signal by QROSS X", has been live on Youtube.

Download Forex Signal by QROSS X.

NZD interest rate cut further next week? 16-Jul-2015

Canadian dollar
 Yesterday, Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut 25bp at the interest rate which is now 0.50%. This is because of uncertainty in such energy sector or export of manufacturing goods, according to the source. CAD has been weaken against other currencies. GBPCAD was around 1.9995 before the rate changing and it is 2.022 now.

Financial Post >> David Rosenberg: Why the Bank of Canada cut now


New Zealand Dollar
 On the other side, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) plans the rate decision 23-Jul in next week. NZD has been weak against other major currencies such as GBP and USD since beginning of this year. The interest rate has been expected to be cut this year, as it was mentioned on this blog last Jan.
If the rate is cut next week, NZD will be likely weaker even though the market will have already expected the rate cut. Actually, the inflation rate is lower than RBNZ targeted, and it implies the interest rate is expected to be cut further. GBPNZD is at around 2.393 now, the highest level for almost 6 years.

Scoop >> Keep the interest rate cuts coming - 16 July
Today’s inflation release by Statistics New Zealand showed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.3% annually and 0.4% on last quarter; inflation continues to come in at well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target band of 1% to 3% over the medium term – more cuts are justified and helpful to counteract headwinds in our economy, says the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
NZMEA Chief Executive Dieter Adam says, “Inflation remains low and the June CPI would have been flat on last quarter if not for petrol prices. This is further reason for the RBNZ to keep cutting interest rates over this year, to spur growth and help the New Zealand dollar continue its downward trend, improving the competitiveness of our manufacturers and exporters. The continued fall of the currency will also help our dairy sector and the related manufacturers, who are facing hard times with the reduction in dairy prices.


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Description about Newsensus on the official website 12-Jul-2015

A new page has been added on Newsensus Official Website. This is description about Newsensus App.

Newsensus App is available on Google Play.

Newsensus covers international news from major economic zones in the world including Europe, Asia, America, Middle East, Africa and Oceania.

RBA rate decision early in the morning UK time 7-Jul-2015

[AUD] Rate decision will be taken by Reserve Bank of Australia, early in the morning UK time. Although the rate is at the record low 2.0%, unexpected cut might be occurred while Chinese stock market is volatile. Australian economy has highly relied on Chinese economy, but since Chinese demand for natural resources, such as iron ore, got slow down, monetary policy has been eased by cutting the interest rate.

Ref. [Brisbane times] need2know: RBA in focus
Macquarie Wealth Management says that with the RBA cutting rates into USD weakness, policy is yet to deliver any meaningful AUD depreciation, with 2Q15 AUDUSD remaining about 9 per cent above our forecasts. "We now expect a stronger AUD for the remainder of 2015."
One-month implied volatility, a measure of anticipated price swings in the euro-US dollar exchange rate, rose to as much as 13.61 per cent on Monday, compared with an average of 11.78 per cent this year.

AUD has been weaken at market opening after Greek referendum was decisively resulted "No". GBPAUD is now as same as the level of 2009. If unexpected rate cut happened, AUD will be weaken further against other currencies and eventually inflation risk would be concerned.


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Greek referendum, impact at EUR 4-Jul-2015

Back to 1 year ago, Jul-2014, EURGBP was 0.790 - 0.800. It is now 0.713 significantly down more than 10%. It is mainly because of intermittent quantitative easing by ECB and Greek election on Jan-2015 which resulted SYRIZA's win.

Greek referendum, Yes or No?
Greek people are voting for whether they accept the proposal from the creditors, European Commission, ECB and IMF.
The poll indicates "Yes" is slightly supported than "No". We won't have no idea of the result most likely. Leading party, SYRIZA, has basically support "No", particularly Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis.

Ref.
Greek referendum poll shows 'Yes' 41.7 percent, 'No' 41.1 percent
TV poll puts 'Yes' vote marginally ahead before Greek referendum
Greece debt: Varoufakis accuses creditors of 'terrorism'


What about EUR?
Some sources say result of the referendum will not change the situation as bail out program has been terminated on the end of last month, but it still may affect to FX market against EUR.
"Yes" means Greece will accept the proposal from the creditors. If it is agreeable for both sides, Grexit and its default are unlikely to happen soon.
If the result is "No", the worst scenario is Greece being default before or after Grexit. No matter which Greece exit from Eurozone, the related debt is default, which was denominated in EUR. It implies credit of EUR currency will be deteriorated, and it leads to EUR become weaken against other currencies.

Ref.
What might happen if Greeks vote ‘yes’ — or ‘no’ — on Sunday
Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’


By the way, the trend & momentum on QROSSX.com indicates unclear signal whether EUR is go up or down...


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GBPUSD trend & momentum 25-Jun-2015

GBPUSD had gone up until around the end of last week, and it has been down ward trend since beginning of this week. GBP and USD, both are considered as strongest currencies in the current market.

Trend and momentum of GBPUSD indicates it still has room to go down by the end of this week. But it is expected trend reversal to upward trend for a coming next week.

GBPCAD Trend & momentum 18-Jun-2015

GBPCAD had declined around the earlier days in last two weeks, and it has been upward trend after the earlier decline.
The trend and momentum indicates GBPCAD is around the peak of upward trend, and it is expected trend reversal into downward trend for a coming week.

Tomorrow, several economic figures, including Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, are revealed in Canada. In UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced tomorrow.

To check more information about fundamentals, please see QROSS X website.

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