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Monday 6 July 2015

RBA rate decision early in the morning UK time 7-Jul-2015

[AUD] Rate decision will be taken by Reserve Bank of Australia, early in the morning UK time. Although the rate is at the record low 2.0%, unexpected cut might be occurred while Chinese stock market is volatile. Australian economy has highly relied on Chinese economy, but since Chinese demand for natural resources, such as iron ore, got slow down, monetary policy has been eased by cutting the interest rate.

Ref. [Brisbane times] need2know: RBA in focus
Macquarie Wealth Management says that with the RBA cutting rates into USD weakness, policy is yet to deliver any meaningful AUD depreciation, with 2Q15 AUDUSD remaining about 9 per cent above our forecasts. "We now expect a stronger AUD for the remainder of 2015."
One-month implied volatility, a measure of anticipated price swings in the euro-US dollar exchange rate, rose to as much as 13.61 per cent on Monday, compared with an average of 11.78 per cent this year.

AUD has been weaken at market opening after Greek referendum was decisively resulted "No". GBPAUD is now as same as the level of 2009. If unexpected rate cut happened, AUD will be weaken further against other currencies and eventually inflation risk would be concerned.


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