Well, if you are more experienced traders, you would agree that the volatility is not (only) a reason to choose underlying assets. Before making conclusion which of fiat FX or crypto FX are more reasonable underlyings, let's take a look some fundamental data. Here is a comparison between BTCUSD and GBPUSD in Bid/Ask quotes and the spread, observed at one of regulated brokers today.
Quotes: BTCUSD and GBPUSD |
Some Watanabes would claim that they expect higher volatility driving their profit and absorbing the cost. So let's take another measure of the expected profit in case of one-sigma moved to a favour direction. Using daily volatility for last 6 months, it is estimated below.
P/L by one-sigma up |
It is the fact, but does it mean we should invest in crypto FX rather than fiat FX?
The brokers usually allows investors to leverage, so see how much investment will bring same return in fiat FX as crypto FX. It is not a big deal. In this case, if you leverage only about 8.7 times on the fiat position, you will get same returns by one-sigma up.
Leveraged on the fiat position |
Ok, but some might argue that BTCUSD performs same as GBPUSD but does not need such leverage. We took the case for upside this time, but how about the downside risk?
Under the same condition, but in case of one-sigma down, the P/L is estimated below:
P/L by one-sigma down, leveraged on the fiat position |
Relatively lower volatility at fiat FX can be compensated by just 8.7 times leverage. The downside risk is smaller in fiat FX than crypto FX, to expect same upside. If you do not have very specific preference, it seems be more reasonable to trade fiat FX rather than crypto FX, doesn't it?
I have no intention to stop Mr/Mrs.Watanabes trading crypto FX, but probably worth to rethink about it.
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