Coronavirus blasting all the goddamn markets

The Underboss (from Wikipedia)

The Godfather's son was so temper as he killed himself consequently.

Sonny Corleone:

... So why don't he just blast whoever's in the goddamn car?

Since the later last month, the global stock markets overwhelmingly plunged as if we are at verge of a new great recession or so. US's DJIA had the record drop yesterday at nearly 3,000 points. The commodity markets were also down.

While Fed finally set their target rate at around zero, the market reaction was pessimistic. First, the financial policy cannot be a breakthrough against the epidemic. Second, the investors woke up, recognizing how serious of the economic damage. Third, the stock markets were overvalued (Bubble) until Coronavirus outbreak.

Coronavirus brought anxious tension among people in the world where no one is virtually away from the threat of Coronavirus. Once it started spreading into the countries outside of China, the economic and social activities have gradually shrunk. Many events were banned. Bars or nightclubs were closed. Tougher boarder controls. Details of such rules are different between countries, but it continues for a month to a few months at least.

As mentioned in the last post, the airline operators are highly likely at risk because of non essential travel bans. The measure has escalated since then.

BBC: Coronavirus: Europe plans full border closure in virus battle
The European Commission is planning to ban all non-essential travel throughout Europe's Schengen free-travel zone as more countries close their borders to try to limit the spread of coronavirus.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would ask leaders to implement the measures on Tuesday.

"The less travel, the more we can contain the virus," she said.

FTSE 100
Financial crisis (2007 - 08), down 40% from peak

People are cashing out rather than holding shares, and some goes for panic buying. Even if shelfs in supermarkets become empty, you will see new stocks arrived there next day as far as supply chain works and production of goods continues. In other words, if the supply chain or production were limited or halted as the tougher measure, it could be disastrous. People rush to buy limited stock of foods, hygiene sprays or toilet rolls. Hyperinflation or stagflation could be possible in such situation.

FTSE 100
Last 2 years, down 33% from peak.
Another 10% brings larger dip than financial crisis 2007-08

When it comes to the financial markets, FTSE 100 was at 6,580 on 1-Mar and now marked at 5,217, about 33% down from the peak in last 2 years. During the last financial crisis in 2007-08, FTSE 100 was down by 40% from the peak. Today's market, the index has dropped 33% from the peak in less than a month. It looks just a matter of time until the latest crisis surpasses the one in 2007-08.


In the future when the world finally defeat the Coronavirus threat, financial markets and people's activities would be back in normal manners. But by that time, all the goddamn markets might be blasted in unprecedented scale.

Caporegime says: These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years.

The Caporegime (from Wikipedia)

The Godfather had many friends with loyalty.

Peter Clemenza:

These things gotta happen every five years or so,... ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood. Been ten years since the last one.

In contrast with the consecutive downfalls of global stock prices in last week, it has been on a bumpy ride this week in US market particularly, partially because of Fed rate cut which was unexpected and little explained and Super Tuesday's outcome.

Meanwhile, it is a time to back in reality, isn't it?  After Fed rate cut and Mr.Biden's revival on Super Tuesday, there is no pragmatic solution combating Coronavirus. What is a kind of solution is a vaccine development whose production is expected after months to more than a year. So far, it looks good news are lasting and shadow of bad news ahead.

Flybe, one of the largest regional airlines in Europe, is dragged into administration. Even before the Coronavirus outbreak, Flybe has 40 years of its history and had expected to have a rescue deal to manage the difficult situation. Its employees' jobs are at risk.

China is pushing their business back to normal as much as possible, but the recovery is not enough for global economy. Outbreaks in other parts of the world are spreading faster and faster.
After all, consumers' demands are fading day after day as Coronavirus spread, except for panic buying at some supermarkets. The new James Bond film, which was planned to be released on April, was postponed until November.

The atmosphere surrounding the world is becoming reminiscent of the financial crisis in 2007-2008. The financial crisis 2007-2008 stemmed from credit crunch. The recent financial uncertainty is caused by the fear of epidemic and its economic effects. But the epidemic could not only lead travel industries including Airline companies like Flybe into the dark, but also cause domino effects in other industries, including financial industries.
Airline operators are financed through Structured finance, so called Aviation finance or Aircraft finance. They rise funds in both equity and debt for multi-billion dollars to purchase their Aircrafts to operate. The expected revenue is a source of the repayment and is supposed stable without such pandemics or wars. Reduction of the scheduled flights leads to their revenue cuts. Apart from the basic measures, business insurance or collaterals to avoid delinquency, they may have to cut labor costs. It has started already. (See below)

Sky News: Virus turbulence could give airlines cover to make cuts
Lufthansa, Germany's largest airline and the third-largest in Europe by stock market value, unveiled a cost-saving programme in which it will suspend new hires and offer employees unpaid leave in an attempt to mitigate the financial impact of coronavirus.
...
And it was revealed that KLM, which is the Dutch arm of Air France-KLM, Europe's fifth-largest carrier by market value, is to delay all IT and property projects that have not yet got underway and will be suspending hiring in certain departments.

Even such big names like Lufthansa and KLM struggle due to the Coronavirus outbreak, needless to say that the smaller operators suffer badly. In case that cost cutting is not sufficient, the subordinated debt repayments are first affected and the operator maybe forced into insolvent when senior debt repayments are failed. The insurance companies have to recover the loss, but the pandemic bring such unfortunes for virtually all the airline operators and travel related industries as chain effects. It can be a global credit crunch that we don't know the exact figure yet.

The financial markets have experienced some sharp up and downs for the last 10 years, but they are nothing more than the financial crisis 2007-2008, aren't they?  The Caporegime knows what happens now, perhaps.

Fed emergency rate cut. Coronavirus or Shadow of Mr.Sanders? 3-Mar-2020

Fed overwhelmingly announced 50bps rate cut today soon after the US stock market opened.
DJIA once jumped, reacting to the rate cut, though it stays nearly flat since the market opened. It seems be about the response to the market turmoil due to the Coronavirus crisis. But this sudden announcement is a little weird as such rate cut without anticipation tends to surprise the market, which should be avoided.

While today's news are dominated with Coronavirus, this is the Super Tuesday in US. The latest polls suggest that Mr.Sanders has the best chance to win, who is known of Social Democratic ideology. It can be a weigh on the stock prices shortly even though the likelihood is already priced in.

We'll know it.

Comment on 4-Mar-2020 Morning:

Regarding the current outcome of Super Tuesday, Mr.Biden earning votes remarkably, leaving Mr.Sanders behind. Meanwhile, DJIA future is also gaining, which implies today's opening values will be higher.

Godfather says: I spent my whole life trying not to be careless.

Godfather's discipline is worth not only for mafia nor yakuza but also for investors and traders.

Don Vito Corleone:

I spent my whole life trying not to be careless. Women and children can be careless. But not men.

Since the worst week for global stock markets, investors and traders should have been pessimistic under the market turmoil due to the fear of Covid-19 so called Coronavirus.
As the share price plunged overwhelmingly plunged last week, modest bounce back could have been expected at the beginning of this week. But how many of them could confidently foresee today's market swing, particularly in US markets where DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) shot up above 5.0% in a single day?  There were some positive signs in the markets today, as Bank of Japan and Bank of England ensured their help for the Coronavirus crisis, and Mr.Trump slammed Fed "slow to act". Meanwhile, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will be the first to have the rate decision at 2:30PM on 3-Mar (Local time). Some says that RBA will be forced to cut the rate because of the market turmoil, but US markets closed with huge recovery today and it became unclearer if RBA will cut or keep the rate.

While the markets turned positive today, we didn't get any breakthrough against Coronavirus. For a last few days, we were talking about supply chain problem, travel restriction and economic damage by them. Some says the global GDP could lose a quarter of the forecast even in "mild" scenario whose other scenarios are "modest" and "severe" respectively. The number of cases are now increasing outside of China, including Europe and US as concerned.

As more analysis results came out over the weekend, those mitigated uncertainty of the impact of Coronavirus. But negative outlook looms for coming months possibly beyond 2020. During the financial crisis in 2008, the markets had been down to the bottom on a bumpy ride. It is still likely to see the second round of massive sell-off near future, perhaps in this month again. Who knows?
That's why we have to learn from Godfather's discipline.

Tail risk factors emerging simultaneously?

Factorizing geopolitical tail risk into three factors, our old men would say Plague, Famine and War.
If we adapt today's situation into them ...

 Plague >> Coronavirus (Covid-19). Certainly serious now.
 Famine >> Supply chain problems, and goods vanish from super markets. (Due to possible city closures, transport restrictions, ... if Covid-19 spread faster globally.). Locust invasion in Africa.
 War >> Tension between Turkey and Syria. Afghanistan (It depends on whether the peace agreement is successfully proceeded.). ...

A lot of geopolitical issues have emerged since the beginning of 2020, of which Covid-19 is the most serious today. Today, few talks about a rich man who secretly escaped in the instrument box from the country where Diamond Princess cruise ship recently docked.

Seems little help the financial market as invisible Coronavirus surrounding globally 1-Mar-2020

Since the late last Friday to over the weekend, some good news and bad news are running the world. But as Covid-19 cases continue increasing globally, there is little sign mitigating uncertainty surrounding the societies.

Global stock markets have suffered from massive sell off, which is the worst since the financial crisis in 2008. Although Fed implied their rate cut in March and it recovered the US markets before closing on last Friday, more and more Coronavirus cases are confirmed day after day.

Apart from Coronavirus stories, US and Taliban signed a peace agreement on Staturday, which is a good news in those days. However, it is not good enough news to boost the current grim mood because it is unclear if the agreement actually bring a peace in Afghanistan for coming months. (The Guardian: US and Taliban sign deal to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan)
By the way, the market would little care about another good news of Mr.Boris Johnson's private.

FTSE 100
Financial crisis (2007 - 2008), down 40% from peak.

Traders are keen to the tomorrow's market opening of which Asian & Pacific market is on top. Even though the major global markets are closed, the weekend markets help to anticipate the next market opening.

Hong Kong HS50 (Hong Kong),
DAX 30 (Germany),
FTSE 100 (UK),
DJIA (US)
at IG group respectively.

FTSE 100
Last 2 years, down 16% from peak. Just a beginning perhaps...

Unless any breakthroughs are implemented, this economic stagnation would be just a beginning and it is too soon to hunt cheap shares. Japan's PM Shinzo Abe called unprecedented school closure in nationwide this weekend, and it will be effective from Monday tomorrow. No such announce has been called for workers yet while some parents who have small children are arguing about difficulty to take care of their children during the school closure. If the situation is becoming worse, it could be inevitable for the government to limit the economic activities and it will be certainly a critical damage to the vulnerable economy as Chinese economy is slowing down already.
European countries are also reacting to Coronavirus spreading by emergency measures, such as cancellation of public gatherings or stricter boarder controls. Travel agencies or flight operators must be affected pretty badly.
Of course, United State is not the exception. It just recorded a first death case by Covid-19 this weekend. US stock market has been strongest for last years, but it is not clear how much Fed rate cut could stop further panic in the markets.

Unlike the financial crisis in 2008, the coronavirus does not only crash the financial markets, but possibly cease the most of people's activity. Nobody wants such draconian measures taken in Wuhan, but nobody wants to be infected by Covid-19, either. In short term, people will demand mental care, rather than vaccine which it expects to take more than a year to be supplied.