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Monday 2 March 2020

Godfather says: I spent my whole life trying not to be careless.

Godfather's discipline is worth not only for mafia nor yakuza but also for investors and traders.

Don Vito Corleone:
I spent my whole life trying not to be careless. Women and children can be careless. But not men.
Since the worst week for global stock markets, investors and traders should have been pessimistic under the market turmoil due to the fear of Covid-19 so called Coronavirus.
As the share price plunged overwhelmingly plunged last week, modest bounce back could have been expected at the beginning of this week. But how many of them could confidently foresee today's market swing, particularly in US markets where DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) shot up above 5.0% in a single day?  There were some positive signs in the markets today, as Bank of Japan and Bank of England ensured their help for the Coronavirus crisis, and Mr.Trump slammed Fed "slow to act". Meanwhile, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will be the first to have the rate decision at 2:30PM on 3-Mar (Local time). Some says that RBA will be forced to cut the rate because of the market turmoil, but US markets closed with huge recovery today and it became unclearer if RBA will cut or keep the rate.

While the markets turned positive today, we didn't get any breakthrough against Coronavirus. For a last few days, we were talking about supply chain problem, travel restriction and economic damage by them. Some says the global GDP could lose a quarter of the forecast even in "mild" scenario whose other scenarios are "modest" and "severe" respectively. The number of cases are now increasing outside of China, including Europe and US as concerned.

As more analysis results came out over the weekend, those mitigated uncertainty of the impact of Coronavirus. But negative outlook looms for coming months possibly beyond 2020. During the financial crisis in 2008, the markets had been down to the bottom on a bumpy ride. It is still likely to see the second round of massive sell-off near future, perhaps in this month again. Who knows?
That's why we have to learn from Godfather's discipline.

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